Nov. 1, 2023

The rapid adoption of zero-emission electric vehicles will move the nation close to an 80% or more drop in transportation greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 from the 2019 level according to researchers from the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL).

The researchers came to that conclusion after running thousands of computer simulations on the steps needed to decarbonize passenger and freight travel, which make up the largest contributor to greenhouse gases. While they advised that “no single technology, policy, or behavioral change” is enough by itself to reach the target, eliminating tailpipe emissions would be a major factor.

“There are reasons to be optimistic and several remaining areas to explore,” said Chris Hoehne, a mobility systems research scientist at NREL and lead author of a new paper detailing the routes that could be taken. “In the scientific community, there is a lot of agreement around what needs to happen to slash transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions, especially when it comes to electrification. But there is high uncertainty for future transportation emissions and electricity needs, and this unique analysis helps shed light on the conditions that drive these uncertainties.”

The paper, “Exploring decarbonization pathways for USA passenger and freight mobility,” appears in the journal Nature Communications. Hoehne’s co-authors from NREL are Matteo Muratori, Paige Jadun, Brian Bush, Artur Yip, Catherine Ledna, and Laura Vimmerstedt. Two other co-authors are from the U.S. Department of Energy.

…