New Studies Show Hurricane Cycles In Past Centuries Were Far More Intense Than Recent Record Seasons

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This soggy, dirty work is part of a field of research called paleotempestology, the study of ancient hurricanes. The growing and relatively new science seeks to understand the storms that struck this and other coastlines before humans started recording the weather with modern instruments. What researchers have found so far in that ancient mud offers a warning. Sifting through the sediment, paleotempestologists have spotted periods in which intense storms struck coastlines more frequently than current records show. Their work suggests oceans are capable of producing hurricane seasons far more relentless than anything modern society has seen so far.

Now, by burning fossil fuels and pumping heat-trapping gases into the air, the world risks re-creating those stormier conditions. Forecasters have already predicted that this year’s hurricane season, which started June 1, may be among the worst in decades. Hurricane Beryl, which exploded into a dangerous Category 4 hurricane Sunday, is forecast to charge across the Caribbean this week. If the past is “any indication of what we’ll see,” Elliott said, “our coastal zones are really vulnerable.”

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Paleotempestology was supercharged after Category 5 Hurricane Andrew struck the Bahamas, Florida and Louisiana in 1992, killing dozens and causing billions of dollars in damage. The reinsurance industry, which financially backs home insurers and other insurance companies, pumped money into prehistoric hurricane research to better understand the risk of major storms. “They really put their money where their mouth was, and really kick-started the field,” said Jeff Donnelly, another early ancient hurricane researcher at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

To predict how hurricane patterns will change in response to rising temperatures, climate scientists don’t have much to go on: roughly 170 years of instrumental data, a blink of an eye in Earth’s history. Paleotempestology holds the promise of extending the storm record by thousands of years and painting a more complete picture of how bad hurricanes can get. When an intense hurricane makes landfall, the water crashes into beaches and carries waves of sand inland. If a lake is positioned just right along the coast, that material washes into it and settles on the bottom. By measuring radioactive carbon in those layers, paleotempestologists can figure out when a storm struck.

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Free link: https://wapo.st/3XMJR5J

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/07/01/hurricane-predictions-science-ancient-storms/