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hatrack

(60,920 posts)
Thu Jul 11, 2024, 07:56 AM Jul 2024

Sea-Level Rise Across Southern US Among Fastest On Earth; Approaching 1/2" Per Year In FL Panhandle As Of 2021

EDIT

Across the American South, tides are rising at accelerating rates that are among the most extreme on Earth, constituting a surge that has startled scientists such as Jeff Chanton, professor in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science at Florida State University. “It’s pretty shocking,” he said. “You would think it would increase gradually, it would be a gradual thing. But this is like a major shift.” Worldwide sea levels have climbed since 1900 by some 1.5 millimeters a year, a pace that is unprecedented in at least 3,000 years and generally attributable to melting ice sheets and glaciers and also the expansion of the oceans as their temperatures warm. Since the middle of the 20th century the rate has gained speed, exceeding 3 millimeters a year since 1992.

In the South the pace has quickened further, jumping from about 1.7 millimeters a year at the turn of the 20th century to at least 8.4 millimeters by 2021, according to a 2023 study published in Nature Communications based on tidal gauge records from throughout the region. In Pensacola, a beachy community on the western side of the Florida Panhandle, the rate soared to roughly 11 millimeters a year by the end of 2021.

“I think people just really have no idea what is coming, because we have no way of visualizing that through our own personal experiences, or that of the last 250 years,” said Randall Parkinson, a coastal geologist at Florida International University. “It’s not something where you go, ‘I know what that might look like because I’ve seen that.’ Because we haven’t.

“It’s the same everywhere, from North Carolina all the way down to the Florida Keys and all the way up into Alabama,” he said. “All of these areas are extremely vulnerable.” The acceleration is poised to amplify impacts such as hurricane storm surges, nuisance flooding and land loss. In recent years the rising tides have coincided with record-breaking hurricane seasons, pushing storm surges higher and farther inland. In 2022 Hurricane Ian, which came ashore in southwest Florida, was the costliest hurricane in state history and third-costliest to date in the United States, after Katrina in 2005 and Harvey in 2017.

EDIT

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/11072024/florida-sea-level-rise-accelerates-at-extreme-rates/

6 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Sea-Level Rise Across Southern US Among Fastest On Earth; Approaching 1/2" Per Year In FL Panhandle As Of 2021 (Original Post) hatrack Jul 2024 OP
The entire East Coast is going to be different Johnny2X2X Jul 2024 #1
I've been living in my house in Jax. FL for 40 years. lark Jul 2024 #2
Be mindful, when people nearby have to lower their cachukis Jul 2024 #3
There are no guarantees anywhere. lark Jul 2024 #4
I agree. We sold our big house two years ago cachukis Jul 2024 #5
You might as well go to your hot-tub that to the beach in many parts Historic NY Jul 2024 #6

Johnny2X2X

(21,750 posts)
1. The entire East Coast is going to be different
Thu Jul 11, 2024, 08:03 AM
Jul 2024

New York. New Jersey. Maryland. The Carolinas. And of course Florida.

And I think there's a misperception on how it happens. It's not necessarily 1/2" a year all gradually. It will be storm surges that just don't every fully go back out. It will be heavy rains that just don't drain all the way back into the ocean. 5 inches in the next decade is going to really change life for millions of Americans.

lark

(24,149 posts)
2. I've been living in my house in Jax. FL for 40 years.
Thu Jul 11, 2024, 08:04 AM
Jul 2024

I live across the street from the St. Johns river, up on a hill, thankfully. I have seen some of my neighbors on the river have to install bulkheads, add lots of dirt to soggy lawns, and the water still moves up towards their houses. So glad we were aware of climate change so bought a place relatively safe for the long term. Huge oak trees are our only risk factor here, but luckily Jax. has only been directly hit by a hurricane once in recorded history and that was in 1963.

cachukis

(2,666 posts)
3. Be mindful, when people nearby have to lower their
Thu Jul 11, 2024, 08:17 AM
Jul 2024

sales price to attract a buyer, the taxable assessment shrinks.
The system still needs the cash flow.
Your now, beachfront property, may have to accommodate.
My sister in law lives on water in St. Pete. The water, during storms, comes around the front of the house and gets into the garage.
She hasn't had to face the big one yet.
Is there any one in Florida who will guarantee an escape from a Cat 5 in the next 5 years?

lark

(24,149 posts)
4. There are no guarantees anywhere.
Thu Jul 11, 2024, 08:31 AM
Jul 2024

There's no way the water is coming anywhere near our house within the next 20 years and I'm in my early 70's. We are on a 30 ft elevation from the river and quite a ways from it here. Jax and Tampa are about as safe as you can get and live anywhere near the coast in FL. There is certainly some risk, but it's very low and in the distant future. Our trees and the trees in the neighborhood are the bigger danger since this is in an old growth oak forrest. We had 2 taken down 6 years ago and have 1 more that needs to go. It's in the middle of a bunch of wires, and close to the house, so very expensive to remove, only big tree co's have the equipment to do this safely. Hopefully we'll be able to afford to do this next year, so just have to make it through this season.

When I lived in CA I worried about fires and earthquakes living up in the foothills, so just traded worries.

cachukis

(2,666 posts)
5. I agree. We sold our big house two years ago
Thu Jul 11, 2024, 08:38 AM
Jul 2024

and moved into a safe condo.
The taxes on my former home went from $8k to $13k. Insurance went from $3k to $6k.
Thirty five percent of homeowners damaged by Ian, got no money.
We are probably in good shape to live out our lives, but Florida will experience unforseen changes for many, over the next decade.

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