Tea Yields In East Africa And India "Stagnant Or Falling" - Price Hikes Already Baked In

Tea is a British institution and 100m cups will be drunk today, but experts are warning that our beloved brew could get pricier as extreme weather causes misery for growers in India and Kenya. Last week’s official cost of living update put food inflation at 1.5%, but a breakdown of price moves showed a box of 80 teabags now costs £2.65, a rise of 18p, or 7%, on a year ago.

A recent analysis in food industry bible The Grocer pointed to bigger hikes, with the price of branded and own-label “everyday” teabags in supermarkets up by as much as 30%. One factor already at play is supply chain problems resulting from Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. But further price increases could be on the horizon for what has always been an affordable drink. Harvests in Kenya and India, which together supply half the UK’s tea, have in recent months been disrupted by heatwave, drought and flooding.

“I’ve just been in India where the north-east is having a drought and the south is having too much rain and farmers are talking about productivity down 40%,” says Anna Mann, associate director for responsible business at Fairtrade Foundation. “The price of tea hasn’t changed in a decade. We’re looking at one of the first times when there might be shortages and it will have to shift.”

In May, tea production in India was down 30% on 2023 to what was the lowest haul for the month in over a decade. As a result, in the last week of June, the country’s average tea price topped £2 a kg, almost 20% up on a year ago, according to India Tea Board data. Across India growers are battling stagnant or falling yields due to the climate crisis, says Shilajit Roy Choudhury, vice-president of the United Nilgiri Tea Estates company. “I’ve been in the plantation industry for 35 years now and see the change,” he says. “I would love, every day, to have sun in the morning and rain in the afternoon. Historically that was the case. It is not any more.”

EDIT

https://www.theguardian.com/food/article/2024/jul/22/climate-misery-tea-growers-jump-price-uk-cuppa