NOAA (Barely) Revises Hurricane Forecast - Upper-End Limit Now 24 Named Storms, Not 25

ORLANDO, Fla.—Expectations for an extraordinarily active 2024 hurricane season remain essentially unchanged, after NOAA released its midseason forecast Thursday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 17 to 24 named storms, a slight revision down from its May forecast, which had called for 17 to 25 named storms. That was the most named storms the federal agency had projected since the forecasts began in 1998.

The latest forecast included eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes of category 3, 4 or 5 strength, packing winds of 111 miles an hour or more. The numbers included the four named storms that already have developed this season. Among them was Debby, which drenched the Southeast this week after making landfall Monday in Florida as a category 1 hurricane.

By Friday Debby had weakened, although the storm’s remnants continued to pose a flood risk for the Carolinas and bring tornado threats to the Northeast.

The average season features 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. NOAA typically issues an updated forecast in August near the heart of the season, which begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30. “All the indicators that go into these seasonal forecasts are lined up for a very active season, so that is very concerning,” said David Zierden, Florida’s state climatologist based at the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies at Florida State University. “To me the biggest worry is a storm that does form can be stronger this year.”

EDIT

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10082024/noaa-affirms-hurricane-expectations/