Horrific Pantanal Fires Made 4-5X More Likely, 40% Hotter By Global Warming

The devastating wildfires that tore through the world’s biggest tropical wetland, Brazil’s Pantanal, in June were made at least four times more likely and 40% more intense by human-caused climate disruption, a study has found. Charred corpses of monkeys, caimans and snakes have been left in the aftermath of the blaze, which burned 440,000 hectares (1.1m acres) and is thought to have killed millions of animals and countless more plants, insects and fungi.

The extent of the destruction exceeded the previous June record by more than 70%. This was driven by extreme fire weather that created a vast tinderbox. The month was the driest, hottest, and windiest June in the Brazilian Pantanal since observations began.

Such conditions are expected to occur once every 35 years at the current 1.2C level of global heating above pre-industrial levels, according to an international team of scientists at World Weather Attribution. If humans had not destabilised the climate by burning trees, gas, oil and coal, such extreme fire weather would have been far rarer, they said.

The once-unusual wind, heat and aridity made the fire weather conditions 40% more intense and four to five times more probable, revealed the analysis, which is based on observations of the weather as well as computer models. The El Niño climate pattern, which faded before June, did not appear to have made a significant contribution. These trends would grow worse in the future unless humanity stopped burning fossil fuels and forests, the scientists warned. And if global heating reached 2C, severe fire weather conditions would become about twice as likely and 17% more intense.

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/08/wildfires-brazil-pantanal-wetland-climate-disruption