Risk Analyses Largely Ignore The Dangers Of Climate Change - They Will Soon Outweight All Others

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The latest scientific analysis based on evidence from the last ice age suggests that there is a possibility that, because of global heating and the resulting influx of fresh water from the melting Greenland ice cap, the Amoc could shut down with surprising speed, and as early as the middle of this century. If that occurs, the consequences would be catastrophic. With the resulting hypothetical 10C to 15C fall in temperature, Britain’s climate would change to that of Newfoundland’s. Agriculture would collapse, and the entire landscape of the country would be transformed. Housing and infrastructure would have to be radically adapted to withstand the new climate.

The result would be decades, and possibly generations, of economic hardship. And as temperatures fell in western Europe, they would rise in west Africa. The population of Britain would at least survive a collapse in local agriculture, albeit in straitened and rationed circumstances reminiscent of the second world war and its aftermath. People in Africa would not. The result would be an immense increase in the migration and the political response that is already very visibly driving the decay of liberal democracy in Europe. Fortunately, such a rapid collapse of Amoc remains, for the moment and on balance, improbable. It is not a negligible risk, however, and if the climate crisis continues to gather pace, the chance of it occurring will only increase with time.

This being so, an observer would expect that the entire external policy of the UK (and other western European states) would be devoted to fostering international cooperation and action to limit the climate breakdown and mitigate its consequences. However, nothing of the sort has occurred, despite repeated statements that the climate crisis is an “existential” threat. Nor is anything of the sort to be expected from the new Labour government.

Climate breakdown in general is visibly proceeding even faster than most models predicted, and some of its worst probable consequences are already clear. July marked the 14th consecutive month of record-high global temperatures. Arctic and Antarctic temperatures are rising much faster than global ones, increasing the risk of a disastrous tipping point. In south Asia, if this summer’s record temperatures become the regular pattern and extend over several months, agricultural production will be severely damaged, threatening hundreds of millions with famine. In Europe, central Spain appears to be in the early stages of desertification, even as central Europe is devastated by floods caused in part by a collision of cool northern air with exceptionally warm air moving up from the Mediterranean.

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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/19/russia-china-global-security-climate-breakdown