9 October, 2024
Scientists caution no guarantees when it comes to overshooting 1.5°C
New paper published in Nature analyses future scenarios in which we temporarily exceed 1.5°C and bring temperatures back down in the long run. It finds overshoot comes with irreversible consequences and rapid near-term emissions reductions are essential to reducing climate risks.

New paper published in Nature from 30 scientists analyses future scenarios in which we temporarily exceed 1.5°C and bring temperatures back down in the long run.

• The authors stress that such an overshoot comes with irreversible consequences and rapid near-term emissions reductions are essential to reducing climate risks
• Bringing temperatures down again will limit long-term damages from impacts like sea level rise
• Environmentally sustainable carbon removal capacity is needed to hedge against the climate system warming more than expected

Even if it is possible to reverse the rise of global temperatures after a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C, some climate damages triggered at peak warming, including rising sea levels, will be irreversible, according to a new study published today in Nature.

The study is the culmination of a three-and-a-half-year project, backed by the European innovation fund HORIZON2020, looking at so-called ‘overshoot’ scenarios, where temperatures temporarily exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, before descending again by achieving net-negative CO2 emissions.

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