Despite Conference Happy-Clappy, Next 6 Months Will See New FF Licenses Worth Another 15 Billion Tons Of Carbon

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But the International Energy Agency says the boom in renewables won’t by itself squeeze space for oil, gas and coal quickly enough. In a 2023 report on how the world might reach carbon neutrality by 2050, the agency said that fossil fuels would have to flip from providing four-fifths of the global energy supply to less than one-fifth. The decline would be significant enough that, as of 2023, the world would no longer need new large-scale oil and gas projects.

But these projects are taking off nonetheless. The International Institute for Sustainable Development, which tracks oil and gas data, says that countries this year have issued permits that could emit more than 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide, if fully tapped. That figure — equal to about 3.5 percent of the world’s annual output — is part of a downward trend over the past decade. But the institute says that there is a “massive surge” forthcoming, with countries planning over the next six months to issue licenses that could account — if fully tapped — for 15 billion tons of emissions. That’s roughly one-quarter of the global emissions output in a year.

“It’s a bid of a Damocles sword hanging over our head,” said Olivier Bois von Kursk, an IISD policy adviser. He noted that Australia and the United States will be among the biggest issuers in the next bidding rounds. They are countries that have the wealth to transition away more quickly; leaders from poorer, more vulnerable nations have called on them to take on the leading role.

“These are net exporters that are claiming to be climate leaders while expanding their emissions,” he said. “I think it is absolutely indefensible at this point.”

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2024/11/10/cop29-climate-conference-fossil-fuels-pledge/