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NickB79

(19,662 posts)
Tue Dec 24, 2024, 10:49 AM Tuesday

Bloomberg: Green Hydrogen Prices Will Remain Stubbornly High for Decades

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-23/green-hydrogen-prices-will-remain-stubbornly-high-for-decades

The gas will fail to reach price parity with conventionally made hydrogen in most regions, according to research firm BloombergNEF.


Most is behind a paywall, unfortunately.

But hey, I'm sure blue hydrogen from all that totally not carbon intensive natural gas will be happy to help fill the gap.
9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Think. Again.

(19,091 posts)
2. A very misleading headline and article...
Tue Dec 24, 2024, 11:16 AM
Tuesday

The article mentions...

"“The higher costs for producing green hydrogen without any subsidies or incentives means it will continue to be challenging to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors, such as chemicals and oil refining, with hydrogen produced via electrolysis powered by renewables,” said BNEF analyst Payal Kaur."

...and also states...

" In the US, billions of dollars of projects have been stalled waiting for President Joe Biden’s administration to issue final rules for a tax credit meant to spur production."

However, those final rules have been finalized and publicly announced, and the major subsidies and incentives for the production of Green Hydrogen are now available.

https://www.bakerbotts.com/Thought-Leadership/Publications/2024/December/Final-Regulations-Issued-Regarding-Section-48-Investment-Tax-Credit

Edit to add:

There is also this new development in U.S. support for the Hydrogen industry start up...

https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/articles/us-department-energy-unveils-updated-hydrogen-program-plan

NickB79

(19,662 posts)
4. The article specifically addressed subsidies
Tue Dec 24, 2024, 01:50 PM
Tuesday

From the article:

The forecast puts Biden’s goal of driving US hydrogen costs down to $1 per kilogram by 2031 out of reach. Many analysts consider that price essential to convincing potential customers to start using the fuel. BNEF took an in-depth look at how green hydrogen will fare in New York, Texas and Utah. The report found that Texas will create the cheapest green hydrogen but costs will only fall from $7.22 per kilogram today to $4.82 in 2030. If Biden’s planned tax credit of $3 per kilogram is included, Texas hydrogen costs could fall below $1 by 2040, according to the forecast.

The fate of US hydrogen policies remains uncertain, with President-elect Donald Trump set to take office in January. Although industry executives remain hopeful he will continue many of Biden’s initiatives — in part because oil companies are interested in hydrogen — Trump has said little about it. His threatened tariffs on imported products could boost the price of foreign-made electrolyzers, but BNEF’s price forecast did not take tariffs or subsidies into account.


IF Biden's subsidies stay in effect, it COULD fall below $1/kg in Texas, the most favorable market studied. But, subsidies won't bring it under $1/kg elsewhere. And, it's a reasonable bet that Trump will in at the very least scale back said subsidies and increase the cost of equipment with tariffs. Cost competitive green hydrogen is still theoretically possible, but getting less and less likely the closer we are to Trump taking power.

Think. Again.

(19,091 posts)
5. Yes, as I said, the headline and article are misleading, at best.
Tue Dec 24, 2024, 02:30 PM
Tuesday

Just another fossil fuel industry-prompted hit piece at worst.

NNadir

(34,841 posts)
3. It really doesn't matter. It's been a bullshit nonstarter for half a century.
Tue Dec 24, 2024, 12:28 PM
Tuesday

Economic laws are, at the end of the day, subject to the more important laws of physics. One cannot make energy cheaper by wasting it.

The hydrogen bros/sock puppets/fossil fuel greenwashers here and elsewhere are simply members of a long line of energy fools stretching back to the badly educated moron Amory Lovins. Hydrogen Energy has a long history of going nowhere and as of now is nowhere and it won't go anywhere. There is well known data on how much CO2 is generated to make hydrogen and it's ugly and as clear as day. The Potemkin "green" hydrogen is simply a marketing ploy and comes out of the fossil fuel companies' marketing budget rather like "sequestration."

Think. Again.

(19,091 posts)
6. The goal is not to make energy "cheaper", the goal is to stop emitting CO2...
Tue Dec 24, 2024, 02:32 PM
Tuesday

...and as you know, Green Hydrogen doesn't emit CO2 in either it's production or use.

caraher

(6,314 posts)
8. Unless you consider the use to which the "green" electricity could have been put instead
Wed Dec 25, 2024, 04:54 PM
Yesterday

Consider the steps in your energy system and apply basic thermodynamics.

Both batteries and hydrogen serve as energy carriers. Batteries are significantly more efficient, around 90%, while electrolysis is maybe 75% efficient, but energy stored in a battery is vastly more useful than energy stored in hydrogen for most purposes.

There may be niche applications where hydrogen makes sense, but the best use of "green" electricity is to use it directly rather than store it. if you must store the energy, pumped storage works best where available. Unless and until we have an energy system where all demand for electricity is fully met by "green" sources, any diversion to low-efficiency storage is intrinsically wasteful.

(I'm deliberately being vague about what "green" means in this context, as you may use whatever definition you please and the conclusions are the same.)

Think. Again.

(19,091 posts)
9. Yes, I think it's clear to everyone that we need to provide all our energy without CO2 emissions (Green)...
Wed Dec 25, 2024, 05:03 PM
Yesterday

...and that batteries, Hydrogen, gravity, etc, as storage mediums will also have their best uses.

We are nowhere near that goal yet, and any progress on the build-out of any and all of these technologies is imperative, and certainly couldn't be considered a "diversion".

Caribbeans

(1,038 posts)
7. H2 bashers unable to control their glee at this BNEF "report" ignore this
Tue Dec 24, 2024, 02:56 PM
Tuesday
Only two markets — China and India — are likely to see green hydrogen become cost-competitive, according to BNEF. There, the cleaner fuel will reach a comparable price to gray hydrogen by 2040.


"ONLY TWO MARKETS" - the largest populations ON TH E PLANET

They also ignore developments in China like this:



H2 costs around $30 / Kg in California

anyone know what it costs in China? Didn't think so. There's a reason for that.

The United States of Confusion doesn't want H2. There's at least a few reasons for that too. Let the hoodwinking continue. No one in China OR India cares a tiny bit what BNEF says.
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