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The Blame Game Begins: The Moscow Theater Attack and Mobilizing against Ukraine William Spaniel
In the aftermath of the Moscow Theater Attack, an interesting intelligence game began playing out between Russia and the United States. The Kremlin has strong political incentives to tie the attack to Ukraine. Given an earlier warning about the possibility of an attack, the United States likely has information it could release to counter Russian narratives. However, any such revelations risk sacrificing intelligence gathering methods. Thus, the dilemma for the Kremlin is find the right way to frame the attack without inducing the United States to disrupt the process.
This video goes into the details of how such a dilemma works and the complications that come with it.
0:00 The Brewing U.S.-Russia Intel Battle
2:43 What Is "Duty to Warn"?
6:20 Early Warnings of an Attack
8:43 Russia's Ukraine Claims
10:42 Russia's Domestic Reaction to the Link
11:58 The Intelligence Game
16:55 How to Play the Game with Uncertain Information
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