05 Apr: All Alarms Triggered! New Threat of the Biggest Russian Offensive (Kharkiv) - Reporting from Ukraine

Day 772: Apr 05

Today, there is a lot of news from the Kharkiv direction.

In recent days, rumors have flourished everywhere about an alleged Russian plan intended to capture the city of Kharkiv in a potential new spring-summer Russian offensive. In addition to Vladimir Putin's statements about a sanitary zone, some senior Russian officials anonymously reported further details of a possible plan for an encirclement operation in Kharkiv, aimed to capture the city without destroying it, employing a contingent of 300 thousand Russian troops.

As an additional indicator, Ukrainian authorities recently reported that Russian forces have begun to strike Kharkiv with a new type of guided bomb called UMPB D-30, which is a glide bomb evolution with improved characteristics. Each munition consists of a unified module with folding wings, a guidance unit, a jam-resistant satellite receiver, and a rocket booster or turbojet in the tail that would give it an estimated combat range of 90km. These improvements bring them closer in accuracy and maneuverability characteristics to a cruise missile at a fraction of the cost. Ukrainian authorities have described the reported use of this new glide bomb over civilian population areas as an attempt to terrorize the civilian population.

Ukrainian authorities and military analysts have stated that, for the moment, there are not enough indications about the creation of such a large force that could be aimed at encircling the city. And the various statements and actions seem more like information operations in an attempt to destabilize Ukrainian authorities, to force the commitment of additional resources in this direction, as well as to create disruption among the civilian population.

First of all, various Ukrainian analysts evaluated that even a force of 300 thousand troops would probably be insufficient to attack and encircle Kharkiv, and they estimated that Russian forces would need at least half a million soldiers. Kharkiv, with a population of almost a million and a half people, is Ukraine's second-largest city, which means that the city is home to many more high-rise buildings, factories, and industrial zones that can be used as powerful fortifications. For context, it took Russians 80 thousand troops and 10 months to take Bakhmut. Kharkiv is 10 times bigger than Bakhmut by size and 20 times bigger than Bakhmut by population and the number of high-rise buildings. Interestingly, the estimated figure of half a million soldiers is, in fact, higher than what Russia currently has deployed along the entire front length.

Secondly, even assuming a possible additional mobilization in Russia, preparing this new force and its logistics for early spring or summer seems unrealistic.

A very relevant Ukrainian military analyst has detailed how Russian forces might approach an advance on Kharkiv.

Firstly, an advance from the west would have to necessarily face two crucial defensive nodes, Okhtyrka and Bogodukhov, which belong to the Kotelva - Valky line. In addition, a great number of new defensive lines have been built throughout the whole Kharkiv oblast in recent months.

Secondly, the allegedly Russian plan explicitly indicates an encirclement of the city, and the reason for that is that Russian would like to avoid much harder urban fighting, particularly in such an extensive city. A Kharkiv encirclement would only be realistic if the Russian forces managed to advance further west of the Oskil River and at least reach the Chuguev - Pervomaisky line, an objective they have been unable to achieve so far, despite countless attempts to advance in the direction of Kupiansk.

As I analyzed in a previous video, an advance from the northern part of Kupiansk is quite challenging due to the funnel formed by the Siversky-Donets and Oskil rivers, which in practice forces an attack to face two solid defensive lines in succession.

Finally, another critical challenge for the Kremlin would be securing the southern flank of such a potential offensive. As an alternative, Russian forces could adopt a third vector precisely from the south only if they could reach Izyum beforehand. From Izyum, they could both compromise Ukrainian resistance east of the Oskil River and advance toward Kharkiv from the south. However, the prospects of seizing Izyum seem unrealistic to accomplish in the short or medium term.