20 Apr: Fierce raid! Ukrainians obliterate Russian forces build-up for the Kharkiv offensive - Reporting from Ukraine

20 Apr: Fierce Raid! Ukrainians OBLITERATE RUSSIAN FORCES BUILD-UP FOR THE KHARKIV OFFENSIVE

Reporting from Ukraine

Day 787: Apr 20

Today, there is a lot of news from the Kharkiv direction.

Here, Ukrainian forces launched an extensive strike campaign against Russian forces concentrations in order to prevent any buildup of Russian striking forces in the region that may allow Russians to launch the Kharkiv offensive operation.

This was a direct response to the increased intensity of Russian strikes in the region, as well as suspicious reorganizations of their military structure. First of all, the Russian Ministry of Defense recently introduced a new Belgorod direction to their situational reports. Secondly, the Russian Ministry of Defense recently created the Group of Forces North, which is located precisely in this region, further indicating that Russians are considering the Kharkiv offensive and will launch it if Ukrainians show any weakness.

The first move was made by Russians, as their military commanders notably increased attacks in recent weeks on both military and civilian targets throughout the Kharkiv region and in its capital, taking advantage of the dire situation in terms of anti-aircraft defenses of the Ukrainian army.

Geolocated footage shows Russian strikes on various Ukrainian targets. The first video shows the destruction of two MLRS missile launchers located inside Kharkiv city. Since secondary explosions were registered, the missile launchers were apparently close to entering combat mode.

Russian loitering munition attacks also notably increased, especially those using Lancet systems. Several videos show hits on Ukrainian assets, such as artillery pieces and, most notably, a Soviet origin Ukrainian P-18 radar equipment.

Analysis of the elements hit by Russian forces indicates that the aim of these attacks was primarily to diminish Ukrainian artillery firepower and, thus, allow for the possible buildup of troops near the border.

Ukrainians responded reciprocally and launched an intense pre-emptive strike campaign on Russian territory, urged by their anti-aircraft defense systems shortage. Ukrainians rely on better reconnaissance capabilities, and several geo-referenced videos show impacts at various locations close to the border areas. The first video shows the destruction of a hidden T-72 tank in addition to an MT-LB infantry vehicle.

The complete footage set illustrates how the army continued to rely primarily on FPV drone attacks, which is something to be expected given the critical situation of the artillery stockpiles. However, as many analysts assessed, FPV drones can only be a partial and short-term solution, given their various limitations in terms of range, payload, and the effects of electronic warfare systems.

Subsequent videos show hits on a Russian UAZ Bukhanka minibus, a "pole-21" electronic warfare equipment, and various other military transport vehicles, as well as a Russian Murom-M surveillance system.

Lastly, a final video shows an FVP drone on the move impact on a BM-27 “Uragan” multiple rocket launcher.

By contrast, an analysis of the elements hit by the Ukrainian forces suggests that the aim of these attacks was mainly to hit concentrations of forces, logistics elements, and other surveillance assets, such as observation posts, so that the Ukrainians are precisely trying to undermine the build-up of forces in the vicinity of the border.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War recently stated that the threat of a potential Russian offensive on Kharkiv or Sumy city is already forcing the Ukrainian commanders to redeploy some of the limited Ukrainian resources to construct additional defensive fortifications. They stated that whether or not this hypothetical offensive would be successful, it could, at the very least, cause a strain situation that would significantly impact other areas of the front line. The fact that Russian forces achieved the theater-wide initiative gives them the opportunity to conduct opportunistic offensives in almost any area of the front line. Finally, the Institute for the Study of War added that the window of opportunity to conduct decisive offensives before the Western assistance arrival is closing, and this suggests they could potentially try to take advantage of the situation in the next weeks to obtain significant breakthroughs at various points along the line...