18 Oct: Clever. Ukrainian Secure a Strategic Victory. 50,000 Russian Troops Tricked & Diverted - Reporting from Ukraine

Today there are a lot of updates from the Kursk direction.

In a pivotal shift, Ukrainian forces halted a major Russian attempt to encircle their troops in the Kursk region, however, faced the dilemma of launching a high-risk pincer attack on Novoivanivka. As the battle intensifies, both sides are racing against deteriorating weather conditions, which will impact the broader operations in this volatile area.

As previously analyzed, Russian forces have recently made advances deeper into the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast. Initially, they attempted to push from the lowlands near Snagost toward Liubymivka, with the goal of reaching Malaya Loknya and cutting off Ukrainian troops positioned to the north, near Korenevo. However, this effort ultimately failed. If we look at the topographic map, we can see the main reason why this attempt failed: Ukrainian forces strategically allowed the Russians to advance through the lowlands while maintaining control of the surrounding high ground. This positioning created a deadly "kill zone," where Russian troops were exposed to concentrated Ukrainian fire from elevated positions, severely limiting their advance and resulting in significant losses.

Recognizing their earlier mistake, Russian forces adjusted their strategy for the second wave of attacks, this time advancing through the highlands. A paved road from Korenevo provided rapid access to the elevated terrain, minimizing exposure to fire from both sides. In an extremely risky maneuver, Russian forces chose to bypass initial Ukrainian positions without engaging, driving deep into the salient. The gamble partially paid off, as despite losing half of their armor and personnel along the road, they succeeded in capturing several settlements. However, a swift Ukrainian counterattack quickly retook key positions in Leonidovo and Novoivanovka. Despite this success, the Ukrainian command opted not to fully reclaim all lost territory, choosing a more cautious approach to conserve resources.

It is important to recognize that Korenevo has emerged as a key logistical hub, receiving a substantial influx of Russian reinforcements. The total number of Russian troops in the region has surged from 30,000 to 50,000, with Korenevo playing a critical role in supporting these forces. This reinforcement is largely due to the need for rerouting much of Russia's logistics in the eastern Kursk sector through Korenevo, following the destruction of key bridges and pontoon crossings over the Seim River. The loss of these critical infrastructure points has forced Russian supply lines to adapt, making Korenevo a vital node for sustaining their operations.

Initially, the Ukrainian command considered launching a pincer attack from both the south and north to encircle Zelenyi Shlyakh and the surrounding salient. However, two key factors prompted a reconsideration of this strategy. First, adverse weather conditions—heavy rains, strong winds, and dense fog—severely impacted Ukrainian drone operations, neutralizing a critical advantage in reconnaissance and assault support. Throughout the war, Ukrainian forces have excelled in drone warfare, pioneering innovations in both defensive and offensive roles, using drones not only for reconnaissance but also as integral components of assault operations and infantry support. However, in recent days, weather conditions, including winds reaching up to 46 kilometers per hour, have rendered drone use impossible, temporarily erasing Ukraine's aerial advantage. This disruption has directly affected operations like the planned encirclement of Zelenyi Shlyakh and its surrounding salient, forcing the Ukrainian command to adapt to the changing tactical landscape.

Secondly, from a tactical standpoint, an attack from the northern pincer would expose Ukrainian forces to potential counterattacks from the Korenevo road. This highway offers the Russians a rapid deployment route, allowing them to quickly reinforce positions. With Ukrainian reconnaissance capabilities hindered by poor weather, there was an increased risk of surprise Russian assaults on any Ukrainian units attempting to encircle the settlement. In light of these risks, the Ukrainian command opted for a more cautious approach. Instead of risking exposure, they chose to push Russian forces out of Novoivanivka with a direct frontal attack while establishing a defensive line anchored by nearby...