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milestogo

(17,833 posts)
Sun Jan 22, 2017, 10:52 PM Jan 2017

Why the new US administration might not prove to be Israels best friend

YOSSI MEKELBERG | Published — Monday 23 January 2017

Watching the inauguration of Donald Trump on a very cold Friday afternoon in Washington felt like the theater of the absurd. It was the moment that it sunk in that the new reality is President Trump and probably also Orwellian “newspeak.” The man who only a few months ago was an invaluable asset for a late-night satire show has become one of the most influential politicians in the world. There is no escaping the fact that we are entering unchartered territory in terms of US leadership, and it is going to have an immense impact on the country’s Middle East foreign policy, particularly regarding Israel. Prior to entering the presidential race he was a middle-of-the-road supporter of Israel, not a fervent one. For Israel and its supporters in the US, his bid to enter the White House got off to a slow start for their liking. Early on in the primaries, he told a rather surprised audience in South Carolina that when it came to peace negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians, he planned to be “sort of a neutral guy.” He even dared to say soon after that for negotiations to be successful, “a lot will have to do with Israel and whether or not Israel wants to make the deal — whether or not Israel is willing to sacrifice certain things.”

It did not take long for him to understand that this was not language that wins votes in the US. With the active advice of his son-in-law, now the new administration’s peace broker Jared Kushner, and Ron Dermer, Israel’s ambassador to the US, he shifted almost 180 degrees. Trump started attacking his predecessor Barack Obama for mistreating Israel, and promised that under his presidency Israel would not be treated as a “second-class citizen.” This was a strange accusation given that the Obama administration had just signed the biggest military aid deal with Israel in the history of the two countries. Furthermore, Obama was far from heavy-handed with Israel throughout the failed peace process, despite wide consensus that it failed mainly due to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government’s intransigence. This was even after Netanyahu boldly intervened in US domestic affairs during nuclear negotiations with Iran.

All the signs thus far point to Trump doing anything to appease the extreme right-wing Israeli government and its constituency in the US. Suggesting moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem prior to a peace deal with the Palestinians, and appointing a new ambassador to Israel who is an ardent supporter of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, leaves little hope that the promise to broker the “deal of all deals” to bring peace between Israelis and Palestinians is not more than a hollow one.

No surprise that leading Israeli Cabinet ministers openly expressed their delight with the election of Trump, hoping that this would be the end of the idea of an independent Palestinian state. However, if Trump would like to be a good friend to Israel and also serve his country’s best interest, he should read and follow to the letter former Secretary of State John Kerry’s speech last month just before he left office.

http://www.arabnews.com/node/1042856/columns

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geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
1. The US is not Israel's friend, states don't have friends.
Mon Jan 23, 2017, 10:34 AM
Jan 2017

Trump will be more pro-Israel than any other US president, precisely because he doesn't give a shit about what happens to Israel in 20 or 50 years. He'll just let the Israelis determine what they think is in their best interests, and rubber stamp it because there's no upside in his view for doing anything for powerless Arabs and Muslims since they have nothing to offer him.

karynnj

(59,942 posts)
2. Actually, they do have ONE thing -- but it is a complete long shot
Tue Jan 24, 2017, 01:21 PM
Jan 2017

Trump's huge ego would LOVE to be the one seen to make the BIG deal. It is not clear how he could position himself or his son in law to do that, but it takes both sides.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
3. I/P takes nuance, detail, patience and a healthy attention span. He lacks all of those.
Tue Jan 24, 2017, 02:11 PM
Jan 2017

As for his whelp envoy to the middle east, that's really kind of a bad joke at this point (galling that Trudeau from Canada has to meet with him).

The one downside for Bibi (if he survives his current issues) is that "bad cop" Obama is now gone, so now that he gets to do whatever he wants, he has to define what it is he actually wants.





karynnj

(59,942 posts)
4. My point was that if getting that deal was a big enough win that he assigned career people
Tue Jan 24, 2017, 03:15 PM
Jan 2017

to actually do the work, he would need the Arabs as well as Israel. However, I agree with you that neither he or anyone he has picked on this has anywhere near the skills needed - even if they were not starting to Netanyahu's right. I liked Tom Friedman (in Davos with Kerry) saying that Kushner's crediential was once having attended Jewish summer camp. This was in a comment where he was telling Kerry that Netanyahu was going to miss him for just that reason.

I agree with you that will put Netanyahu in an uncomfortable position. Not to mention, what is clear is that the rest of the world does not agree with Netanyahu or Trump.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
5. Trump is already going to need the Arab states for defeating ISIS
Tue Jan 24, 2017, 05:48 PM
Jan 2017

and containing Iran (they are already largely on board with the latter with more mixed results on the former).

The Palestinians have a lot more friends in the Arab world in public than they do behind closed doors.

Mosby

(17,474 posts)
6. Egypt, Turkey and Israel have all fallen prey to delusions about Trump
Tue Jan 24, 2017, 07:25 PM
Jan 2017
Middle East derangement syndrome: Egypt, Turkey and Israel have all fallen prey to delusions about Trump

-snip-

It all seems rather strange given how Trump rode to power, winking at Islamophobes as well as anti-Semites and otherwise appealing to isolationists. If there was any sign during the long campaign about Trump’s approach to the Middle East and U.S. foreign policy more generally, it was retrenchment. That is not good for Washington’s major regional allies, yet leaders in these countries seem willing to overlook this inconvenient fact in favor of a fantasy that Trump will be a better steward of their security and American interests than was Obama.

http://www.salon.com/2017/01/22/middle-east-derangement-syndrome-egypt-turkey-and-israel-have-all-fallen-prey-to-delusions-about-trump/

I think Trump is probably an isolationist, not sure he even cares about ISIS.
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