Israel/Palestine
Related: About this forumHow the Gaza Ministry of Health Fakes Casualty Numbers
The number of civilian casualties in Gaza has been at the center of international attention since the start of the war. The main source for the data has been the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry, which now claims more than 30,000 dead, the majority of which it says are children and women. Recently, the Biden administration lent legitimacy to Hamas figure. When asked at a House Armed Services Committee hearing last week how many Palestinian women and children have been killed since Oct. 7, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the number was over 25,000. The Pentagon quickly clarified that the secretary was citing an estimate from the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry. President Biden himself had earlier cited this figure, asserting that too many, too many of the over 27,000 Palestinians killed in this conflict have been innocent civilians and children, including thousands of children. The White House also explained that the president was referring to publicly available data about the total number of casualties.
Heres the problem with this data: The numbers are not real. That much is obvious to anyone who understands how naturally occurring numbers work. The casualties are not overwhelmingly women and children, and the majority may be Hamas fighters.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/how-gaza-health-ministry-fakes-casualty-numbers
The anaysis points to three aspects of the data that strongly suggest the numbers are being fabricated. First, the increases have been virtually linear, which doesn't seem plausible given the dynamics of a war. The author of the piece was able to create a linear function that mirrors the increases exactly. That shouldn't be possible with real world events.
Second the relationship between women's deaths and children's deaths should be highly correlated, but their not, the R² is .017 which is not statistically significant.
Lastly, the numbers of women vs. men deaths are negatively correlated, which is exactly the reverse of what is expected.
Along with other anomalies, it's pretty obvious that the death numbers are fabricated.
TheRickles
(2,350 posts)"No evidence of inflated mortality reporting from the Gaza Ministry of Health".
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)02713-7/fulltext|
(NB: This URL might have to be copied and pasted in full, as the direct link doesn't seem to work)
I'll go with the peer-reviewed medical journal over a professor of sports analytics.
Mosby
(17,283 posts)Is doing nothing more than a pair wise comparison between hamas fatality numbers and UNWRA numbers.
It's stupid.
They don't address the linearity of the numbers, or the inconsistencies between death totals of men women and children.
Tetrachloride
(8,408 posts)Mosby
(17,283 posts)I'm not a good writer.
I'm just happy when I put together a coherent paragraph.
Tetrachloride
(8,408 posts)I knew more about woofs and meows until "recently."
Bucky
(55,334 posts)This article reminds me of one from Al Jazeera few months ago
Analysis: As Israel escalates Gaza war, its kill-rate claims dont add up
The claims, aimed at fending off criticism over civilian casualties paint a picture of the war that makes no sense.
By ,orange Kusovac | 9 Dec 2023
Israel is trying to fend off accusations of indiscriminately killing civilians, but its claims make little sense. Earlier this week at a briefing in Israel, an official said that a Hamas fighter was killed for every two civilians, suggesting that this was a better combatant-to-civilian kill ratio than most armies in recent wars.
{snip}
But for almost any military a constant loss ratio of greater than 30:1 in operations that last more than a month on at least two distinct, if connected, battlefields in north and south Gaza would be a sure sign of an imminent total collapse.
Even allowing for the high motivation of ideologically recruited Hamas fighters, it would still be hard to imagine that they would continue fighting after such losses.
I see the signs that indicate [Hamas] is beginning to break in Gaza, Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant told troops he was visiting on Friday.
Gallants claim was either an exaggeration or an optimistic attempt to boost his soldiers morale. In reality, it is obvious that Hamas fights on in a way that would not be possible if it were losing as many fighters as Israel claims to be killing.
I would suggest that making an argument that one is, ya know, not really killing all that many people when one is obviously killing a whole lot of innocent people is not a good look. It's the sort of thing that if you quibble about it, it comes off almost as cold as, say, an urban bombing campaign.
I would also suggest that the US State Department is not accepting the Gaza government's Health Ministry's numbers for frivolous reasons. If they had reservations about the accuracy of the numbers, I think we would have heard it by now. If the Israeli's had concrete rather than speculative evidence about Gaza significantly inflating the numbers, I feel like they would have presented it by now.
lapucelle
(19,518 posts)February 29, 2024
WASHINGTON, Feb 29 (Reuters) - U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told Congress on Thursday that more than 25,000 women and children had been killed by Israel in Gaza since October 7, but the Pentagon later clarified that estimate, saying the figure came from the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, not U.S. intelligence.
During a congressional hearing, Austin was asked how many Palestinian women and children had been killed by Israel and Austin replied: "It is over 25,000."
A few hours later, Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokesperson, said that Austin was citing an estimate from the Gaza health ministry and was referring to total Palestinians killed, not just women and children.
"We cannot independently verify these Gaza casualty figures," Singh said in a statement.
https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-february-29-2024/
==================================================
MR MILLER: So I have seen the comments by the Secretary of Defense. I havent seen them in full, so I will refer you to the Department of Defense to discuss exactly what he meant. But I will say whatever the exact number is of civilians that have been killed, it is far too high, which is what you heard me addressing a moment ago, and which is why we continue to try to perceive a temporary ceasefire that would alleviate that suffering.
snip=======================================
QUESTION: First of all, are you suggesting that maybe the Defense Secretary got it wrong?
MR MILLER: No, Im suggesting that for comments about the things the Defense Secretary said, you should take that up with the spokesperson for the Defense Department, who does have a daily briefing and Im sure will be happy to talk about
snip----------------------------------
QUESTION: So how many civilians do you think how many women and children
MR MILLER: I dont I dont have a further estimate to offer.
https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-february-29-2024/
BootinUp
(48,766 posts)From an October 26 article in TIME
https://time.com/6328885/gaza-death-toll-explainer/
BootinUp
(48,766 posts)qwlauren35
(6,255 posts)I would love a verifiable number from an impartial source.
I wouldn't believe Hamas number.
I wouldn't believe IDFs number.
There are reporters on the ground and there are UN representatives. And there is probably US aerial footage. I would trust that more.
I will try to expand my phrase to "Hamas' estimate of 25,000" or more recently, "Hamas' estimate of 27,000". Or is it 30,000. I've lost track.
I know it's a lot. I'm sure it's thousands. But after that, it gets fuzzy.
One thing is for sure - the IDF has not killed enough Hamas terrorists for them to surrender. And that really pisses me off. I really want this gigantic killing orgy to be over. Yes, I know that Hamas started it with a killing orgy.
Mosby
(17,283 posts)They have eliminated ~13,000 Hamas members.
qwlauren35
(6,255 posts)Hamas isn't going to confirm or deny something like that.
Obviously it suggests that over half of the people killed are not "innocent", if indeed 25,000 people have been killed - which is also suspect.
The whole thing is just one gigantic mess. Hamas started it; Israel is taking it to a whole new level.