Hurricane Dorian–Alabama controversy

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Altered map

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President Trump displays the altered map in a video
published by the White House on September 4, 2019


A frame from the above video with
Trump displaying the altered map.


Spaghetti plot used by Trump later on the same
day to support his assertion that the hurricane
was predicted to pass over Alabama.

On September 4, 2019, in the Oval Office, Trump displayed the National Hurricane Center's August 29 diagram of Dorian's projected track. The diagram had an oddly misshapen line, apparently drawn with a black marker, which added an additional lobe to the cone of uncertainty of the hurricane's possible path into southern Alabama. Public reaction ranged from mild skepticism to derision; Trump said he did not know how the map came to be modified. The map incident resulted in the hashtag "Sharpiegate" trending on Twitter – as people alleged that the map was modified by a Sharpie permanent marker pen – with people posting invented versions of other photos modified by a marker.

Trump had been known to use a Sharpie to write on documents during his presidency and while on the campaign trail, despite claiming he was unsure of who made the alteration on the map. He stated he had "a better map" with models that "in all cases [showed] Alabama was hit." Later the same day, Trump tweeted a map by the South Florida Water Management District dated August 28, four days before his September 1 tweet, showing a spaghetti plot of Dorian's path. Trump incorrectly asserted "almost all models" showed Dorian hitting Alabama, even though the map showed most simulated paths would not enter that state. A note on the map stated that NHC Advisories and County Emergency Management Statements superseded it and that the graphic was to be ignored if it caused confusion. Trump also said his briefings had included a "95% chance" that the storm would strike Alabama and that "Alabama was hit very hard – was going to be hit very hard."

The Washington Post reported that NOAA had twice ordered National Weather Service employees not to provide "any opinion" on Hurricane Dorian and to "only stick with official National Hurricane Center forecasts". The first order came after Trump's September 1 comments and the Birmingham, Alabama National Weather Service's contradiction of Trump. The second order came on September 4, after Trump displayed the altered map.

Following a Freedom of Information Act request by BuzzFeed News, the White House released more than 1,000 internal NOAA emails on January 31, 2020. In an internal NOAA email, staffer Corey Pieper confirmed to NWS Director of Public Affairs Susan Buchanan on September 4 that the map "was doctored", after the latter received an inquiry from NBC. Dr. Neil Jacobs, Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Environmental Observation and Prediction, wrote in an email to another NOAA scientist, "you have no idea how hard I'm fighting to keep politics out of science." Responding to an inquiry from ABC News about the controversy, one internal NOAA email simply wrote "HELP!!!" NOAA acting chief scientist Craig McLean reacted to the unsigned NOAA statement in an email to other NOAA officials; McLean added, "what concerns me most is that this administration is eroding the public trust in NOAA for an apparent political recovery from an ill timed and imprecise moment from the president."

NOAA statement

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On September 9, The New York Times reported that Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary of the United States, had called the acting administrator of NOAA, Neil Jacobs, and ordered him to undo the department's apparent contradiction of Trump. Jacobs objected, but was told that the top officials of NOAA would be fired if the disagreement was not resolved. The Commerce Department later issued a partial denial, saying "Secretary Ross did not threaten to fire any NOAA staff over forecasting and public statements about Hurricane Dorian." Craig N. McLean, NOAA's acting chief scientist, said he would investigate how the resulting September 6 statement was issued. "The content of this press release is very concerning as it compromises the ability of NOAA to convey life-saving information necessary to avoid substantial and specific danger to public health and safety," he said. "I am pursuing the potential violations of our NOAA Administrative Order on Scientific Integrity."

On September 11, it was reported that Ross had been told by Acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney to arrange for NOAA to support Trump's version of events and disavow the Birmingham message. According to The Washington Post, Trump himself told his staff they needed to get the contradiction fixed. The Post's sources say that Ross conveyed the message but did not threaten any firings. Trump denied the report saying, "It's a hoax by the media. That's just fake news".

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See also
• False or misleading statements by Donald Trump § Hurricane Dorian
• Trump administration political interference with science agencies

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