Gun Control & RKBA

tortoise1956

(671 posts) Sat Jan 7, 2017, 04:06 PM Jan 2017

WTF - the numbers don't agree...

Recently, there was a post that contained the following link:

http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/article-abstract/2582988

According to the researchers, there was an immediate and sustained increase in the number of gun homicides in Florida after the Stand Your Ground law was passed in 1998. I didn't buy the paper, so I don't know exactly what they based their research on other than it was a CDC website, but they did throw some pieces of info at you in the abstract - enough to extrapolate that the initial homicide rate was ~5.9/100,000, and that it went up by 24% (~7.3/100,000) after the law was passed.

HOWEVER - some fast research showed that the Murder rate in Florida has held pretty much constant over the years, based on the FBI UCR data. The last time that the Murder rate exceed 7.3/100,000 was in 1996 - before the SYG law was passed.:

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/flcrime.htm

Does anybody want to hazard a guess on what method they used to arrive at some pretty unsubstantiated numbers? My best guess is that they tried to include all homicides in this rate - criminal or otherwise. Which I would expect to be identified in the abstract...

In any event, I pronounce this research paper to be a

FAIL!!!!!!!!!!

7 replies

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Highlight:

WTF - the numbers don't agree... (Original Post) tortoise1956 Jan 2017 OP

Another example of .... virginia mountainman Jan 2017 #1

There's a definition difference between homicide and murder. ... spin Jan 2017 #2

This -- Homicide vs murder. ManiacJoe Jan 2017 #3

According to another website... tortoise1956 Jan 2017 #4

How's this? yagotme Jan 2017 #5

GunControl: Where academics get drunk and have a Mustang Ranch blowout. NT Eleanors38 Jan 2017 #6

They say "homicides" hoping you'll hear "murders" kudzu22 Jan 2017 #7

virginia mountainman

(5,046 posts)

1. Another example of ....

Reply to tortoise1956 (Original post)

Sat Jan 7, 2017, 05:13 PM

Jan 2017

Fake news, or outright lying... take your pick

spin

(17,493 posts)

2. There's a definition difference between homicide and murder. ...

Reply to tortoise1956 (Original post)

Sat Jan 7, 2017, 09:07 PM

Jan 2017

Homicide

Homicide refers to one human being killing another.[1] Homicides can be divided into many overlapping types, including murder, manslaughter, justifiable homicide, killing in war, euthanasia, and capital punishment, depending on the circumstances of the death. These different types of homicides are often treated very differently in human societies; some are considered crimes, while others are permitted or even ordered by the legal system.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homicide

Murder

Murder is the unlawful killing of another human without justification or valid excuse, especially the unlawful killing of another human being with malice aforethought.[1][2][3] This state of mind may, depending upon the jurisdiction, distinguish murder from other forms of unlawful homicide, such as manslaughter. Manslaughter is a killing committed in the absence of malice, brought about by reasonable provocation, or diminished capacity. Involuntary manslaughter, where it is recognized, is a killing that lacks all but the most attenuated guilty intent (mens rea), recklessness.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder

You can legally kill a person in self defense in Florida and it would be considered a homicide but not a murder. The stand your ground law might have encouraged more people to obtain a concealed weapons permit and carry a weapon for self defense. Over 1,000,000 Florida residents have concealed carry permits.

Concealed carry gun permits spike after Pulse shooting
July 15, 2016

Thousands of Floridians are looking to take personal safety into their own hands after the massacre at an Orlando nightclub last month.

In May, the Florida Department of Agriculture distributed more than 20,000 applications to people interested in a concealed weapon permit or other firearm license. That number jumped to more than 36,000 in June, according to recently released numbers.

***snip***

On average, about 180,000 new applications are turned in each year and fewer than 4,000 are denied, according to records from the past five years.

By the end of June, more than 1.5 million people were licensed to carry a concealed weapon in Florida.

Local gun safety instructors said they expect the interest to continue growing during the next few months, fitting a trend seen after most mass casualty incidents in the U.S.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/pulse-orlando-nightclub-shooting/os-orlando-shooting-concealed-carry-20160707-story.html

Obviously when more people are legally carrying guns there will be more instances where a gun is used for legal self defense. A percentage of those will result in the death of an attacker or a homicide. That may not necessarily be a bad thing although any loss of life is tragic. Innocent people may have be able to survive an attack without serious injury or ending up in a grave.

ManiacJoe

(10,136 posts)

3. This -- Homicide vs murder.

Reply to spin (Reply #2)

Sat Jan 7, 2017, 11:45 PM

Jan 2017

tortoise1956

(671 posts)

4. According to another website...

Reply to spin (Reply #2)

Sun Jan 8, 2017, 02:34 AM

Jan 2017

They do indeed include all homicides in their figures, such as negligent homicides. They also identify a homicide by the resident state of the victim, not the jurisdiction where the homicide was committed:

https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/ntmh.pdf

I still have issues with this study. Among other things, it counts negligent manslaughter deaths as "homicides". These deaths have nothing at all to do with the SYG law, and thus should not be included in the count. The FBI data, on the other hand, includes murder and non-negligent homicide in its figures, which should be an accurate count of intentional criminal homicides.

The real story here is that the Florida murder rate as defined by the FBI has gone down at approximately the same rate as the United States in general. There is a tendency lately for Florida's rate to be higher than the national average, whereas in the past it had been a little lower. However, with the exception of an uptick in the 2005 - 2007 time frame, the two rates are very close.

(I worked up a quick chart, but I don't know how to paste the chart, or a picture of it, into this post, or even if it can be done. I'll be happy to provide it to anyone who wants to see it. Just PM me.)

Edited to add a link to the chart I built. Enjoy!

https://www.amazon.com/photos/all/gallery/kuwg0r9TQQGOIYbIIUBK-A

yagotme

(3,819 posts)

5. How's this?

Reply to tortoise1956 (Original post)

Sun Jan 8, 2017, 05:50 PM

Jan 2017

Pre-Stand Your Ground: Criminal breaks in, you HAVE to get away, get shot in back by criminal (Classification: MURDER).

Post-SYG: Criminal breaks in, you shoot him before he shoots you (Classification: HOMICIDE).

May account for small percentage of "difference".

Eleanors38

(18,318 posts)

6. GunControl: Where academics get drunk and have a Mustang Ranch blowout. NT

Reply to tortoise1956 (Original post)

Mon Jan 9, 2017, 02:53 PM

Jan 2017

kudzu22

(1,273 posts)

7. They say "homicides" hoping you'll hear "murders"

Reply to tortoise1956 (Original post)

Tue Jan 10, 2017, 01:07 PM

Jan 2017

This is the same reason they love the phrase "gun deaths" - which people take to mean murders but also include self-defense shootings, accidents and suicides.

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