Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

HAB911

(9,349 posts)
Mon Jan 9, 2017, 09:08 AM Jan 2017

Gavin Newsom understates Californias big drop in gun homicides

http://www.politifact.com/california/statements/2016/nov/16/gavin-newsom/gavin-newsom-understates-californias-rapid-drop-gu/

SNIP

Our ruling

California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom said California has seen a "56 percent decline in the gun murder rate" since it enacted strong gun control laws in the 1990s.

Newsom appears to have mixed up the gun murder rate with the gun death rate. California’s gun murder rate dropped 67 percent between 1993 and 2014, according to a review of fatal injury report data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

A similar, though somewhat smaller, drop in the gun murder rate took place nationwide during this period.

Newsom’s overall point is correct: Gun deaths, including gun homicides, have dropped significantly in California since the state imposed the new laws.

We are not fact-checking the cause of this drop. Gun rights and gun control groups have different opinions on this.

What is clear is that gun homicides have declined significantly, and even faster than what Newsom stated.

His claim needs this key clarification.

We rate it Mostly True.
4 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Gavin Newsom understates Californias big drop in gun homicides (Original Post) HAB911 Jan 2017 OP
Understand most of the media and politicrooks don't care or want this known. Tikki Jan 2017 #1
Even better news - gun murders dropped nationwide since 1993... jmg257 Jan 2017 #2
While the statistics may be mostly correct... discntnt_irny_srcsm Jan 2017 #3
Pro & anti 2A folks should seek to understand why the national gun-homicide rate has dropped. Eleanors38 Jan 2017 #4

Tikki

(14,795 posts)
1. Understand most of the media and politicrooks don't care or want this known.
Mon Jan 9, 2017, 12:32 PM
Jan 2017

They have a totally different agenda.

Watch carefully when there is a mass shooting, the local news second shift comes
on air after a trip to the beauty salon and extra careful makeup just in case the national news carries them.

Tikki

jmg257

(11,996 posts)
2. Even better news - gun murders dropped nationwide since 1993...
Mon Jan 9, 2017, 01:19 PM
Jan 2017

{Ca...} gun murders fell from 9.60 per 100,000 residents in 1993 to 3.25 per 100,000 in 2011.

Nationwide, gun murder rates dropped from 7.0 homicides in 1993 to 2.75 per 100,000 in 2011.




"National rates of gun homicide and other violent gun crimes are strikingly lower now than during their peak in the mid-1990s, paralleling a general decline in violent crime, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of government data...

Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades."


http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2013/05/07/gun-homicide-rate-down-49-since-1993-peak-public-unaware/


discntnt_irny_srcsm

(18,567 posts)
3. While the statistics may be mostly correct...
Mon Jan 9, 2017, 01:38 PM
Jan 2017

...the conclusion is overly simplistic.

I agree that California had a drop in firearm homicides that is significantly higher than the US as a whole.

From the CDC's WISQARS database>> https://www.cdc.gov/injury/wisqars/fatal.html
Firearm homicides for 1993:
USA - 18,253
Cal - 3,183

Firearm homicides for 2015:
USA - 12,979
Cal - 1,396


USA overall decline for this period: 29%
CA decline for this period: 56%

I acknowledge the drop and suggest it may be due to issues more complex than new gun laws.

(I'm not making any representation about murder rates because homicide includes more than just murder.)
 

Eleanors38

(18,318 posts)
4. Pro & anti 2A folks should seek to understand why the national gun-homicide rate has dropped.
Mon Jan 9, 2017, 02:21 PM
Jan 2017

Having some inkling of the explanation might enable a further drop everywhere. In any case, it sure beats reflexive prohibitionism and propaganda.

Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Gun Control & RKBA»Gavin Newsom understates ...