The New U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense Review and the Next Focus of the U.S. Security Strategy

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2018/02/20/an-arms-race-toward-global-instability/#5bbffa485b62

The United States is gearing up once more for a struggle between giants. On Jan. 19, the Pentagon released a new National Defense Strategy, the first in 10 years, in which it called strategic competition the "central challenge to U.S. prosperity and security" as Russian and Chinese military capabilities expand. U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis echoed that concern Feb. 2 in the preface of the Nuclear Posture Review, arguing that the United States could no longer afford to pursue a policy of nuclear arms reduction given the steady growth of the Chinese and Russian nuclear arsenals. The U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense Review, due for publication soon, is expected to emphasize the same key points, namely that the United States should bolster its missile defenses to better repel threats as strategic competition builds.

Among these documents, the common thread is that great power competition, and not terrorism, will be the next focus of the U.S. security strategy. Washington has outlined how it will move to redirect its resources, capabilities and approach to overcome the challenges that the growing confidence and abilities of China and Russia pose. Beijing and Moscow, however, show no sign of backing down. And new, destabilizing weapons technology is entering more common use, while long-standing arms control agreements are deteriorating. These developments together promise to usher in a new era of international competition that could rival the Cold War.

I think the threats assessment in the Obama-era Reviews was done much better. As a result the further development of the US strategic deterrence system has become more balanced. But it looks like Mr. Trump is going to make the start shot for the new arms race. He wants to spend Godzillion dollars of taxpayers and to build the most perfect ballistic missiles interception system ever. Ok, as you like Mr. President! But at the very same time both China and Russia will feel themselves insecure and in few years they present much more sophisticated missiles. That makes sense, doesn’t it? Then we’ll have to turn to Step one and spend enormous money to create an extraordinary system to counter these rockets. And it will happen on and on and all sides will continually find themselves at the starting point.

So wasting money on a wild-cat venture is the thing that makes America great again, isn’t it?!