Despite What Trump Says, Climate Change Threatens Our National Security

The president is trying to subvert the science that informs the intelligence community.

By John R. Allen and David G. Victor
General Allen retired from the Marine Corps in 2013 after nearly four decades of service. Mr. Victor is a professor of international relations at the University of California, San Diego.

March 7, 2019

Once again, the Trump White House is publicly crossing swords with the intelligence community in ways that are likely to harm American security.

The latest salvo is an effort taking shape over the next few weeks to “red team” the science of climate change — in effect, to challenge it and investigate it for uncertainties. The backdrop for the scheme is President Trump publicly questioning the accuracy of the nation’s most extensive and scientifically robust assessment by 13 federal agencies that showed how stronger storms, higher sea levels, more heat waves and sundry other effects of climate change will harm the nation. This same science has also informed a new intelligence community report that identifies climate change as a significant threat to national security.

Impacts typical of a changing climate are already buffeting the front lines of America’s military presence. Some are palpable and easily trace back to warming. For example, in Alaska, erosion from warmer weather is undermining the foundations at some radar facilities that are critical early-warning networks for attacks on the United States. They are among dozens of facilities the Pentagon has tagged as at risk from recurrent flooding, drought, desertification, wildfires or thawing permafrost resulting from shifts in climate that are happening much faster than expected. To some degree, better engineering — although often at substantially higher cost — will help reduce these impacts.

Much more insidious are the effects of warming on the social fabric and confidence in government in countries whose stability matters to American security. As commander of United States forces in Afghanistan and other locations, one of us (General Allen) dealt regularly with insurgencies and failed states that created direct dangers to American security. In Afghanistan, for example, the failure of the state is linked in part to weaker agriculture (the main source of income in most communities).

What makes climate change such a pernicious problem is that it increases the odds of those adverse conditions arising — especially in places where government already does not function well. When the stress of climate change multiplies, so will the problems the military must handle.

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