2020 Census may have undercounted Black Americans, new analyses say

WASHINGTON — Two new analyses suggest the 2020 Census may have undercounted Black people at a significantly higher rate than usual, raising concerns about whether minority communities could lose out on fair representation and funding over the next 10 years.

The Census Bureau has not yet released data that will allow comparisons of 2020 Census results with earlier estimates to assess the survey's accuracy. But a simulation comparing its estimates for 2020 with results from 2010 indicates that the country's Black population could have been undercounted at a rate up to three times higher than in 2010. And a second report suggests the undercount of Black children could be as much as 10 times higher than a decade ago.

If the analyses are borne out, the higher undercounts could have profound implications for a wide array of federally funded services, including Medicaid and Medicare, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), highway planning and construction, Section 8 housing vouchers, Head Start and other programs.

"This might be our greatest undercount since 1960 or 1950," said Marc Morial, president and chief executive of the National Urban League, which sued the bureau last year to stop the count from ending early.

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