being from WA, I am happy to see Seahawks in their second Superbowl. It will be fun for locals, but have no dog in the fight.

I have never been impressed with Seattle's offense but their defense has made the team this year. However, Peyton Manning can take apart that defense and I think Denver is good enough to hold Wilson and the offense under 20 points. It will be something like 35-15 Denver.

That changes if the refs allow Seattle to do a lot of holding in the secondary.

a desert-dweller rooting for rain. I never disliked Seattle until the arrival of that little fucker Sherman. Now I loathe them.

Clearly he is a good coach, but he is also a cheater of the first order. He ran a crooked program at USC and got out of town just in time.

I'm sure many people cut corners in such a competitive business, but some people are just too cavalier about it for my liking.

I think Seattle is a much better match-up for Denver than the 49ers. Wilson won't hurt you. Kaepernick won't hurt you much with his arm, but he is really hard to contain as a runner. Wilson is much easier to contain. If Manning gets a lead, neither Wilson nor Kaepernick deals very well with that pressure.

The only way Seattle wins is if they force a bunch of turnovers and their defense scores at least one TD. As good as their defense is, that is all very possible, but I'll take Manning over any defense when it comes down to it.

against the #5 defense in that category who allows 6.5. 9.7 against Carolina, 7.5 - SF, 8.10 - AZ, 10.33 - NO, 7.96 - SF,

Carolina is tied #9 at 6.8, SF as you know is #5 tied with Arizona, also #5 allowing 6.5. New Orleans is #9 at 6.8.

He did struggle in the rematches against Arizona and New Orleans and he also struggled against Houston who is #9.

He posted great numbers against top 10 pass defenses, Wilson has several game-winning/comeback drives including San Francisco. You can't find much better post-season numbers from a 2-year starter so I don't understand how he doesn't deal with pressure. Didn't he mount a 20-point comeback against the Falcons last season where he gained 56 of the 60 yard go ahead drive? Where he threw for 385 yards off 10.7.

It is not ideal for any QB to fall behind early but I bet you anything Denver respects Seattle's passing game which is among the best in the league. The thing that makes Wilson dangerous as a runner is he isn't looking to run, Denver better stay on their men.

Underrating Wilson makes no sense especially since there is nothing to back it up.

Last edited Mon Jan 20, 2014, 01:58 PM - Edit history (1)

and solid running game. There are 12 ABs in the league who would have exactly the same record as Wilson if they were in that position.

As far as the yards per pass, that is skewed by one long play by Baldwin.

Kaepernick had a big time meltdown on the last two possessions. The first one, he threw a pass right to the Seattle receiver, and then throwing a pick in the endzone when you have a game-tying FG available is inexcusable. This was two middle-of-the-pack QBs going at it.

I expect Manning will be able to pick apart that Seattle defense, and I don't think Wilson will be as successful against the Denver defense. Denver wins 28-17.

12 ABs(?) wouldn't have the same exact numbers as Wilson. QBs such as Alex Smith, Geno Smith, Keenum/Schaub, and Dalton all play for teams with great defenses & solid running games and they were nowhere close.

Does he deserve credit for it? If not it brings it a little over 6.8 which is almost in the good range. It is funny that he posts great numbers against top 10 defenses in San Francisco (3 times), Arizona, Carolina, and New Orleans but won't be successful against #15 (Denver). Though Denver's D is playing much better this post-season, Wilson has plenty of experience against the toughest pass defenses there is.

Any number you look at for Wilson he excels. He has the highest completion percentage of throws greater than 15 of anyone that played 14 games (he played 18). The leader is Fols by .7% and he played 14. Any number that values yards/attempts TDs-ints puts him in the top 10.

If it is only because of defense and rushing why is he better than Dalton by .92? Why hasn't Flacco ever came close despite having Ray Rice and Lewis, Suggs, Reed?

I put Wilson & Kaepernick in or around the top 10 like 11 or so but Wilson especially higher because of the better passing. I consider middle-of-the-pack Dalton, Smith, Ryan. RGIII, Brady, and Eli Manning all had a middle-of-the-pack year but too soon to label that way.

For years Atlanta has had one of the top rushing teams while Ryan posted average numbers with back-to-back seasons of below average of 6.47 and 6.49. Last year was a good year for him with Julio Jones have a great year, Atlanta needed two highly talented receivers just to bring it up to 7.67, without him it dropped to the sub 7s.

I think there are many other things to consider. Does the QB take what the defense gives him? Does he convert 3rd downs? Is he smart about when to throw the ball away? Doe he manage the clock and time-outs well? Does he get plays called crisply with few procedure or delay penalties? Does he win games? Can he inspire his team to come from behind? Does he overcome adversity with key players going down? Can he take a hit when he has to? Can he prolong plays when the pocket breaks down? Can he run for a first down in critical situations? Can he get a pass through the lanes without having a lot of palls batter down? Does he make clean ball exchanges? Doe he make convincing play-action fakes Are his teammates excited about playing for him?

Those are the things I would use to measure a QB. It may the hardest job in all of sport.

We had a guy named Jeff George who might have had the best arm of anyone ever to play in the NFL. But he just couldn't do enough of those other things consistently. Our owner (who had just taken over after his father passed, got sucked into that rifle arm, hook line and sinker (to mix about 10 metaphors). Irsay has learned a lot since then.

It will be very interesting to see who bites on "Johnny Football", because I doubt that he measures up very well on my list of questions.

And even if you do, you still don't know what everyone was supposed to do

Does the QB take what the defense gives him - I can't say for sure with Wilson but he is getting as much bang per throw as you can get.

3rd down is easy - He seems to have good numbers on 3rd down across the board except on 3rd 8-10 where he has 5.44 YPA, 1 INT. Anything more or less he is solid. 3rd down numbers from last year look better, on third & short however he completed just 53%, his YPA dipped to 6.32 on 3rd & 11+. Ironically his strength was 3rd & 8-10. He is 59.1% 7.46 YPA 8 TDS 4 INTS overall for 2013

Managing clock & timeouts I would need film but never saw anything obvious. Same with getting plays called but he does 11 delay of game penalties in last 2 years and 1 false start. I decided to compare with Peyton who only has 2 in the last 2 years but he did have 10 in his first 2 years with 1 false start.

Can Wilson come from behind and win games? He's done plenty of that. In his very first game as a pro he trailed Arizona on the road, he drove them all the way down the field and would have won the game if his targeted receiver didn't drop the ball in the endzone. If you don't count the game against Green Bay last year he threw a 46-yard game winning TD pass to Sidney Rice to defeat New England. He hit Rice again with a 13-yard pass to defeat Chicago in OT. He had a game winning rushing TD against St. Louis. Seattle also trailed Washington in the Wild Card round 14-0 and ended up winning but that was more team effort. In the divisional he and the Seahawks erased a 20-point deficit in under a half. It isn't his fault his defense let Ryan get into FG range off of 2 easy plays.

This year Wilson trailed Carolina 7-6 on the road and hit Kearse with a 43-yard game winning TD. Seattle trailed Tampa 24-7, Wilson scored a rushing and passing TD in the effort to tie it at 24. Seattle kicked the game winning FG in OT. Last night against San Francisco. Houston technically counts a comeback for him but it was Richard Sherman and Tennessee who they only trailed in the first half and Wilson had no TDs but did have 257 yards off of 25/31 passing but I didn't include those.

I'm only doing splits for 2013 but here is more stats on Wilson in 4th Qtr if score is +/- 7 he has 414 yds off of 45 attempts for 9.20 YPA with 3 TDs and 5 INTs - I investigated the interceptions on his losses, one was to San Francisco after the kicker made a FG with 26 seconds left, Seattle started the drive on their own 15, next play was an interception.

His latest one in the scenario was this to Arizona which was very controversial because the amount of force caused looked more like ground than arm but it was bad luck http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000302515/Karlos-Dansby-s-decisive-interception

The first one was on a 4th & 15 in Indianapolis trailing by 6 w/ 1:30 remaining. He escapes a rush from his right side and head towards line of scrimmage and releases the ball right before he is nailed which is picked off by a defender in-front of his target -- http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000257240/Wilson-throws-interception-on-final-drive

You have an interception on a tipped ball (that could be the ground), on off a hail mary, and one on a 4th & 15 about to be sacked. Not exactly throwing it straight to 'em like Carson Palmer.

When trailing he has 921 yards, 65.8%, 7.87 YPA, 7 TDs, 5 INT.
When behind by 1-8 points he has 745 yards, 64.6%, 7.76 YPA, 6 TD, 5 INT
When behind by 9-16 points he has 75 yards, 75%, 9.38 YPA

Overcome adversity - I'm not really familiar with whose hurt except they missed Percy Harvin for pretty much the entire season.

Can he take a hit? He's been sacked 44 times hit more times, I posted a clip of him getting taken out by an Indy lineman after he released the ball. San Francisco registered 10 hits on him, Arizona hit him 9 times a few weeks prior. These include players such as Bowman, Willis, Justin & Aldon Smith, Brooks, Daryl Washington(3times), and Calais Campbell. I guess he can take a hit because that is quite a lineup.

Can he prolong plays when the pocket breaks down? Obviously, there are highlights of him doing it every week. Here is a clip of doing 3 times, check out that arm strength when he hits Rice running to his right off balance -- http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000265097/Week-7-Russell-Wilson-highlights

Need film to see if he has balls batted down or not and I can't imagine him making it this far if he was unable to make clean ball changes.

When it comes to his teammates, he bought his entire offense an Xbox One. One teammate said he was a little better than Luck & RGIII (during his rookie year). This is a video of him interreacting with teammates on the sidelines, in the huddle, etc. http://www.seahawks.com/videos-photos/videos/Sound-FX-Russell-Wilson/e90c0ae8-1576-4f5e-a80e-4cea7427d90b

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On the subject of yards per pass, it is the most predictive stat if you combine it with defensive ypa you'd have a fairly good prediction model. Brian Burke who understands what stats work and what don't weighs offensive net ypa followed by defensive net ypa and his models are pretty accurate. He posts weekly game probabilities here --- http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/16/sports/football/conference-championship-probabilities-and-how-the-patriots-run.html?_r=0

He uses more than that but a simplified prediction model takes offensive yppa minus defensive yppa called the YPPA differential. Here are the teams that lead in YPPA differential -- http://mule.he.net/~budsport/pub/killer.php The team that is #2 in the NFL in YPA is facing the #1 AFC in YPA.

More often than not the QB that has a higher YPA than the opposing QB will win the game. If they have it higher than everybody over the course of a season they will have a damn good winning record. Burke himself said that numbers are not the end to the conversation but the beginning but if you're going to use them, better use the right ones.

So by having a top 5 YPA with a 2 1/2 TD-INT ratio after 2 seasons mean he is average though average quarterbacks don't threat those numbers and certainly doesn't start for the team that leads the league in YPPA differential. So what do you use to rate quarterbacks and if it is those questions you asked, I can't see how Wilson fails in any area, really.

On the subject of Jeff George he had about 3 or 4 good seasons, his 1 year in Minnesota is what I'd consider great. Terrific targets in Cris Carter and Randy Moss. From Atlanta-Minnesota he didn't suck.

YPA isn't very meaningful to me. You have some teams where that probably is a very meaningful number. In the case of the Seahawks, the average passing distance is way down the list. It is defense first, it is rushing second, and then you pass when you need to.

Some systems pass a lot more. Some use the "west coast offense" which is mainly short possession passes. Unless a receiver breaks a big YAC, you expect that possession game to yield low yards per pass. Other systems use the run combined with the occasional long strike. You expect the yards per completion to be big in those systems, but the completion percentage to be low. That stat not very meaningful when when comparing dissimilar systems and strategies. And I doubt any team in the entire league has that as one of the first 5 things the look at in a prospective QB. What they want to know is if the guy is smart enough to make his progressions in the 3 seconds he has before being clocked. What they want to know is of he can hit a moving 18" window on a 25 yard throw.

Jeff George didn't suck all the years. My point was that he had arguably the best arm of any quarterback to ever play the game, but was way lacking in many of the other important factors. On the other hand, half of Peyton Manning's passes look like wounded ducks these days, yet he just blew away the season records for passing yards and TDs.

It is the most difficult position in all of sport, I think. Nobody is perfect at it. It takes the right guy in the right system with the right surrounding cast and a few good breaks along the way to be successful. Wilson seems to be in a good place for his skill set.

For just having a couple of seasons behind him, he's very good, but compared all 32 starters, I can't put him anywhere near the top 5. He's a good solid 8-12, which is above average. That's not bad. I don't think we actually disagree at all. I think we both have him around 10th. That's very good for such a young player. When I say "middle of the pack" I'm thinking a wide range 10-20ish. But he's near the top of that pack if not a little above that.

Definitely after yesterday, I'd put Wilson well ahead of Kaepernick in terms of managing the game from the pocket. But Kaepernick can really confound the defense with his legs. I wonder if anybody from San Francisco wishes they had Alex Smith back, at least for the last 10 minutes of that game. I don't believe Smith would have made all those mistakes, but he probably wouldn't have had the 49ers in a position to win either.

Everything is a trade-off. Wilson seems to be the right guy in the right place.

wrote up this article after they benched Alex Smith (my thoughts before I paste, I think check-down Smith would have serious problems against the #1 pass D)

Week 13 N.F.L. Game Probabilities: Why Kaepernick Is Right Pick

San Francisco 49ers Coach Jim Harbaugh had a difficult decision, and I think he made the right choice by starting Colin Kaepernick over Alex Smith. If Kaepernick’s two recent starts are any indication, he has turned what might have already been the best team in the N.F.C. into a prohibitive Super Bowl favorite.

Despite the small sample size, Kaepernick has clearly outplayed Smith this season. Smith has been at his career peak this season, averaging 5.7 Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AYPA), compared with a career average of just 4.3 YPA. Kaepernick has averaged 7.4 AYPA this season and has averaged 8.8 AYPA in his two starting opportunities. Those two starts were against the league’s very best and very worst pass defenses: the Bears, who allow only 2.9 AYPA, and the Saints, who allow 6.5 AYPA. Kaepernick actually did better against the Bears.

Kaepernick brings a dimension to the 49ers’ passing game that Smith hasn’t shown. Kaepernick has confidence in his deep reads, while Smith tends to look for receivers on shorter patterns. Kaepernick is fourth in the N.F.L. with 24 percent of his passes attempts to deep routes, classified as greater than 15 yards downfield. This season, only 14 percent of Smith’s passes were deep ones, which ranks 36th in the league. Together with his mobility, Kaepernick’s threat to throw deep makes things difficult for defenses.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/29/week-13-n-f-l-game-probabilities-why-kaepernick-is-right-pick/

That is from this year, this is Kaepernick is +1.17 above Smith which is very significant. http://wp.advancednflstats.com/playerstats.php?pos=QB - this should be sorted by deep throws and look at the difference. Kaepernick #9 at 23.5% with Smith all the way down at 39. Kaepernick has thrown 11 total interceptions to 6 teams, 6 of those 11 picks went to Seattle. Seattle is either good at what they do or they have his number but I notice on the last drive he completed a pass that was very similar to a play he was intercepted on, he rifled a pass to Boldin in the end zone that could have easily been picked off if it was just a little off. You need someone to have confidence in their throws but maybe they could have checked down their way to the end zone on the final drive.

Nt

He just seems weaselly.

and I like him even less now since that whole referee brouhaha where the Packers got screwed out of a catch in the end zone and the Seahawks "won" the game, and Carroll went running out on the field all happy and shit without even an ounce of shame over "winning" due to a bad call.

Some plays are too subtle to call accurately, but that one was a complete and utter travesty.

And Pete Carroll didn't even have the grace to contain himself.

bleh.


Just found this...the very bad call

There were several bad calls in the game yesterday and they all went in Seattle's favor. This business of certain things not being reviewable really drives fans nuts. If you are going to have replay to get it right, then that should apply to the whole game, particularly in a game with consequences like this. It wouldn't slow down the game much because the team would have the same number of challenges as they have today. That blown fumble call was the worst ever. The SF guy is lying right there in plain sight uncontested, on the ground in complete possession of the ball. How can you not see that? Fortunately for the refs, Seattle fumbled on the next play or else that would have been yet another game decided for Seattle on a blown call.

there were a couple of really dicey calls against SF last night.

The unfortunate thing is, there isn't a whole lot of accountability...no penalties...for officials who make truly bad calls that are clearly visible on tape for the whole world to see.

It's hard to say most times if, or which, penalty would have actually decided the outcome of a game unless it's at the end where the entire game is on the line. But there was one instance of a horrible call where the guys in the booth said it was the "Parking Lot Theory". That is, if there's a controversial call, the officials will give the benefit of the doubt to the home team under the premise that to NOT do so would subject them to much unpleasantness (if not outright violence) from the home team fans upon leaving the stadium at the end of the game.

Bastards

and the refs flagged the SF corner for leading with the helmet. That was a bang-bang play that looked bad in real time, but the cameras showed beyond any doubt whatsoever:

a) there was absolutely no contact to EITHER player's helmet. It was shoulder pad to shoulder pad, which is legal; and

b) the defender had made an attempt to avoid the direct hit when he saw the pass was not caught.

I think that was the NFC game not the AFC game, but I'll admit my memory is blurred a little. My recollection was that was a real change in momentum with that blown call. I just don't see the logic in saying that certain plays can be reviewed and others can't. If the coach has three challenges, let him use them. In the NBA, the refs check the videos before assessing a Flagrant II foul. It is only fair.

I wouldn't mind seeing each team get 5 challenges. I think it adds to the drama of the game and allows the fans to better understand the intricacies of the rules, which is all good. I think the challenges in tennis matches are the best part of that game sometimes.

He is everything I hate about modern sports. He runs his mouth, plays dirty, and cheats. I hope he gets busted for drugs again and this time isn't able to slither out from the consequences.

Going and smacking an opposing player on the ass and trying to draw a flag for the other player's response is just utterly pathetic and to follow that up with his post-game "interview" where he screamed about his greatness.

He's one of those people who really would benefit from a swift punch in the face. It would help him grow up and act like a man because he certainly isn't doing so now.

I feel like Broncs will have to be favored in the 3-7 point range just based on QB play (and Wilson has not looked great lately), but if Seahawks D gets sacks and an INT or two off Peyton and rattle him, they could win.

I also think they will have a lot harder time (the Broncs) stopping Lynch than they did with the Patriots running game today.

Seattle has the best defense, but you don't sack Manning. He gets rid of the ball as quickly as he has to to avoid the sack, and more often than not, he completes the pass when there is a hard rush.

Living in Indy, I have watched a whole lot of Manning's games. It almost never works to blitz him. He hopes you do blitz because that means there will be somebody open and he is uncanny about finding the guy left uncovered by the blitz. Over the course of the game, if you blitz 8 times, that might work twice, but Manning will sting you bad 3 of the other 6 times. It is not a good bet to blitz him very often.

I can't see Denver being very successful running, but they have gone against conventional wisdom. Most people say, "Establish the run to open up the play action passing game". With Manning, it works just as well (or better) to say "Establish the pass to loosen up the defense for your running game". Basically there are two ways to wear down the defense. Most people want to talk about pounding and pounding with the run so that the defense can't stop much by the 4th quarter. Well, it takes a lot out of players to have to chase down receivers every play, especially against a hurry-up offense.

I think this is the worst possible match-up for the Seattle defense.

If SF had won, I'd call this a pick-em game because Kaepernick can be so explosive as a runner. He is very hard to contain. But I don't see this as such a close game.

P.S. Andrew luck beat Manning, Wilson, AND Kaepernick this year in their match-ups.

They don't need to. They also don't spend a lot of time "chasing down receivers." They play press coverage a lot, with Thomas as a single high safety. He's fast enough to play sideline to sideline. WRs have a struggle just to get past the 5 yard cushion. Seattle also doesn't allow a lot of yards after catch. They hit hard and tackle well.

Seattle's LB's are very fast, and they have the best defense against screens and outlet passes to RBs in the league.

Seattle has several guys that can get to the QB, from the inside or the outside. They might not 'get' to Manning, but they'll get close enough for him to know they're there.

The real question is: Can Peyton score more against Seattle's defense than Wilson and Lynch can against Denver's?

I think so.

Oh, and Percy Harvin has been cleared to play.

They have great players on the D side, no doubt about that. But every defense has weaknesses and Manning usually finds them. It can be demoralizing when he is able to attack weaknesses you didn't even know you had. If that happens, then there is a question of mental toughness and adjustments. I don't have any reason to doubt Seattle's toughness or ability to adjust, but it is a scenario that could play out.

It looks like potentially one of the best SB match-ups in a long time. I just hope the weather doesn't keep the players from doing what they do best. I really, really hate the idea of a foul weather Super Bowl.

Historically, the D has had the edge when #1's meet in the Super Bowl. It's something like 4-1 for the D.

And, the league MVP is 0-6 in the SB this century IIRC.



Weather is looking to be a non-factor.

It is a very, very good defense against the best passing offense that has ever played in the NFL. If it were just the best 2013 defense against the best 2013 offense, I'd give the edge to the defense, but that's not exactly the comparison.

Another big factor is that the Seahawks have been really powerful at home but just so-so away from home.

Those are the things that make me think Denver has the upper hand. But the wild card is turnovers. I could see Seattle creating 2 or 3 turnovers that would be the difference in the game.

So let me have a weasel-worded prediction. If the turnovers are even or -1 for Denver, Denver wins. If Seattle wins the turnovers by +2 or more, Seattle wins. I don't think Seattle will be +2 on turnovers, so I'm going with Denver.

All of the above assumes that the Sea offense versus Den defense is an even match (i.e. Seattle offense scoring 17 or less on its own (not counting scoring off big turnovers.)

Luckily it's a sunny day (rare in the winter here). We are all borderline suicidal most of the winter and while it would be silly to jump off a bridge because the Seahawks lost, it could happen. And living under the second favorite suicide bridge, well, I'd just rather the Seahawks win, by luck or by whatever. I've seen enough splatter to last me a lifetime.

This Super Bowl features 2 of the best passing offenses in the NFL.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/sort/yardsPerPassAttempt/seasontype/2

By high scoring I'm thinking midthirties, Denver pushes the tempo which equals=lots of scoring.

over this one. I don't like either team.


I would like to see Manning win his damned second ring and then ride off into the sunset to retirement. But I don't want Denver to win...well, because they beat my Patriots.

I don't like Pete Carroll and I think Richard Sherman is a complete asswipe loudmouth. I'd like to see the Seahawks lose big time.


Had it been SF against DEN in the superbowl, I'd have rooted for SF. I was rooting for them last night, and they could have won but for that one very unfortunate interception in the end zone near the end of the game...

It is funny that Manning lost to a NY Jets team that allowed 6.5 but defeated a Jets team the year before that allowed an incredibly low 5.4.

They didn't face Pittsburgh(5.4) in the post-season because they lost to San Diego in '08. 2007 is moot again because they lost to San Diego.

2006 Chicago allowed a league low 5.8, Manning's Colts defeated them in the SB.

2005 Manning's Colts lost to Pittsburgh who allowed 6.3

2004 Manning's Colts lost to New England who allowed 6.9

2003 New England allowed a league lowest in 5.6, they defeated Manning's Colts

2002 as far back as it goes, TB lead the league at 5.5, Manning's Colts were destroyed by the Jets.

He is 2-1 against the league's best pass defense in the post-season which is meaningless, useless, historical stats

I wonder how the bets went in Las Vegas..ouch.

I read around the nets about football a bit. Real X's and O's guys were pointing out how the matchups pretty much all favored the Seahawks. The Broncs' pass happy offense was right in our D's wheel house.

Anyway, no football for a few months, unless you're a draftnik.

That long, long wait for the NFL to start games again .. agh!!