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lovemydog

(11,833 posts)
Sat Jan 16, 2016, 09:07 AM Jan 2016

NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round

Saturday January 16
4:35 PM ET CHIEFS AT PATRIOTS
8:15 PM ET PACKERS AT CARDINALS

Sunday January 17
1:05 PM ET SEAHAWKS AT PANTHERS
4:40 PM ET STEELERS AT BRONCOS

Followed by the Democratic Debate on NBC. What a weekend. My favorite since it's the last time we get four games.

Here's my picks:
Patriots over Chiefs. I'm rooting for the Chiefs. They've won 11 in a row & Alex Smith is throwing well without turning it over much. It's just tough to go against the Pats at home, especially with Edelman apparently back.
Cardinals over Packers. I think Palmer, Fitzgerald et all should roll over the Packers. But never underestimate Aaron Rogers. It's just that the Pack's offensive line is so injured. And they didn't really beat a tough team last week (Redskins).
Panthers over Seahawks. Toughest call of the week. Seahawks are looking in fine form. Wilson's qb rating is through the roof. But the Panthers are so strong on defense, led by Josh Norman. Seahawks have relied on some miraculous wins in close games recently. They can't keep hoping to pull games out in the final few minutes. I think their luck could run out this time.
Broncos over Steelers. With Antonio Brown out and Roethlesberger not 100% I don't think the Steelers have enough. I expect Manning to start and maybe play the first half. I think the Broncos running game & defense will be their strengths. Of backups quarterbacks, I'll take the Broncos Oswieler over the Steelers Jones.

Make your picks / comments on the games here.

42 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round (Original Post) lovemydog Jan 2016 OP
Picks Dretownblues Jan 2016 #1
I was 3 out of 4 last week... hopefully I can keep it going. opiate69 Jan 2016 #2
NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round Wounded Bear Jan 2016 #3
* Silent_Greene Jan 2016 #4
Cool, heres my picks. draa Jan 2016 #5
Well, I was .500 last week, so let's see if I can improve. Goblinmonger Jan 2016 #6
Picks! WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #7
Cool! I'm alone with my picks WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #8
pats, cardinals, panthers, steelers. nt restorefreedom Jan 2016 #9
Effing Pats WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #10
Pats 21-6 3 rd Q. GO PATS! trof Jan 2016 #11
I hope you're rooting for New England because in 2013 you made a bet that... WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #12
Nope, not even close. trof Jan 2016 #13
You just can't trust Carson Palmer WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #14
Or Alex Smith... I should have known better... opiate69 Jan 2016 #15
league leader in yppa JonLP24 Jan 2016 #19
No doubt he's your quintessential Fantasy Football QB WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #20
I dont play ff JonLP24 Jan 2016 #21
He's like Cutler. If you've followed their careers, every mistake is magnified WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #22
he is a hell a lot better than cutler JonLP24 Jan 2016 #24
He's absolutely Cutler, but Cutler is a lot tougher. WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #25
8.7 ypa JonLP24 Jan 2016 #26
You're married to FF stats. Can't argue with guys like you WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #29
The Super Bowl FPI favorite is ... JonLP24 Jan 2016 #32
You're probably giving Palmer props for that late TD pass to Floyd that WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #23
dumbshit luck is why the game went into ot JonLP24 Jan 2016 #28
What does that have to do with magnifying Palmer's successes? WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #30
ypa passing is the most predictive stat JonLP24 Jan 2016 #31
That's cool. I'm only staying engaged because Carolina is destroying Seattle :( WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #33
I reject your premise. If Carson makes bad decisions next week... WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #35
Carolina now up 10-0 and Arians can't hide your guy Palmer anymore WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #40
That interception in the endzone at 24-7 is quintessential Palmer WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #41
We dont know how much the injured JonLP24 Jan 2016 #42
Here we go folks! GB 80 yards, 115 seconds to play WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #16
This is close! May have to stay with the call because I couldn't see the tip of the ball WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #17
Pats dismantled the Chiefs. lovemydog Jan 2016 #18
That int in the SB was the worst decision Wilson every made WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #27
Message auto-removed Name removed Jan 2016 #34
Panthers huge first half carried them lovemydog Jan 2016 #36
A sweep yesterday gets me to 5-3 in my picks WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #37
It got me to 6-2. lovemydog Jan 2016 #38
I picked KC, was 3-3 going into Sunday WhaTHellsgoingonhere Jan 2016 #39

Dretownblues

(253 posts)
1. Picks
Sat Jan 16, 2016, 09:43 AM
Jan 2016

Chiefs vs Pats: as a pats fan I can't go against my team. I think this game will come down to how well the patriots can protect Tom Brady. If they can give him time this will be a runaway, if not it will be a 1-2 possession game.
Cardinals vs Packers: Cardinals in an easy game. They are just too good on both sides of the ball. I think they are the best team left.
Seahawks vs Panthers: I like the panthers here. It will be a very close low scoring game, but RW will commit a couple of turovers and the Panther are good enough to capatilize(unlike the Vikings).
Steelers vs Broncos: this is a hard one to predict. Antiono Brown is out, Big Ben is hurt, the steelers defense is pretty useless. On the other hand, we don't know what Manning will look like. I haven't bought into the hype that he's back(going 5-9 for 70 yrds is not back). I'll say steelers, because I don't see the Broncos winning with Manning at QB.

 

opiate69

(10,129 posts)
2. I was 3 out of 4 last week... hopefully I can keep it going.
Sat Jan 16, 2016, 10:47 AM
Jan 2016

Chiefs - Hard to pick Alex Smith over Brady, but I think the Pats are a ripe for a beating.
Cardinals - Much as I hate Arians, I think the Cardinals are the more healthy team right now.
Seahawks - Seahawks usually respond well to subpar performances - although the weather in Minnesota had an effect that can't be overstated.
Broncos - Worthlessburger's ability to throw the ball downfield is a big, big question with the shoulder injury.

Wounded Bear

(60,687 posts)
3. NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round
Sat Jan 16, 2016, 10:58 AM
Jan 2016

Patsies over Chiefs...Chefs have been on a tear, but against mostly inferior QBs. We'll see.

Cards over the Pack...Redbirds are for real. Pack are pretenders this season.

Pitt over Donkos...especially if Manning starts. Besides, the "Rooney rule of flag distribution" will favor them.

Seahawks over the Kitties...one early season win erases nothing. The 'Hawks own the Panthers, especially in the post-season.

 

Silent_Greene

(19 posts)
4. *
Sat Jan 16, 2016, 01:12 PM
Jan 2016

*I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried about the Chiefs. It's gonna be a close game. I'm saying the Patriots win 30-27.

draa

(975 posts)
5. Cool, heres my picks.
Sat Jan 16, 2016, 01:18 PM
Jan 2016

1. Pats - Well duh, even with injuries they still have Tom Brady. How do you pick against him at home. EVER. I also believe the Chiefs are in for a letdown. They've won 11 in a row and I don't see that continuing against the Pats. Home field advantage and Tom Brady? Give it to the Pats.

2. Cards - I think Carson Palmer is playing some of his best football right now and the Pack, despite having Rodgers, have been so spotty this season that you never know which team you'll get. Playing at home should also help the Cards and I'm a huge fan of Bruce Arians so I'll stick with them.

3. Panthers - Has Cam Newton turned the corner into elite status? I believe he has. Can he beat a really good Wilson led Hawks? Maybe. I'll give Carolina the edge because of their record and playing at home. It doesn't hurt that they're the better team though and unless the Hawks can find a run game the Panthers win.

4. Broncos - I'm wavering on this pick. I like Denver at home but much like Green Bay I'm not sold on what I've watched from them this year. Having Peyton Manning under center might help but his arm is done and that's been apparent for some time. That said, so is Roethlisberger's arm. His injury will limit his effectiveness and I'm not certain how he'll do. For that reason I'll give the Broncos the edge (playing at a mile high is tough).

 

Goblinmonger

(22,340 posts)
6. Well, I was .500 last week, so let's see if I can improve.
Sat Jan 16, 2016, 02:32 PM
Jan 2016

Chiefs--I think the Chiefs are for real
Cardinals--I don't think the Packers are for real
Panthers--Seattle's offense can be shut down
Steelers--Steelers are a buzzsaw

 

WhaTHellsgoingonhere

(5,252 posts)
7. Picks!
Sat Jan 16, 2016, 02:51 PM
Jan 2016

New England had an un-New England-like off week. One star is hospitalized after smoking synthetic pot, Belichick shows up with a black eye, and Gronk missed 2 practices this week. WTF? I didn't pick NE to get to the SB anyway.

I'm taking KC


Many people don't think Carolina is the real deal. I do. I think they are solid at every phase.

I'm taking Carolina


Still not a believer in GB. Next week, I won't be a believer in Arizona.

Arizona wins


Brown is out for Pittsburg! I would have picked Denver anyway.

Denver

 

WhaTHellsgoingonhere

(5,252 posts)
12. I hope you're rooting for New England because in 2013 you made a bet that...
Sat Jan 16, 2016, 07:15 PM
Jan 2016

both the Tide and Pats would win the championships in 2014 and 2015.

My guess is, that's the only explanation.

trof

(54,273 posts)
13. Nope, not even close.
Sat Jan 16, 2016, 07:20 PM
Jan 2016

Alabama grad, class of '63.
Daughter and family live near Boston.
Go Pats.
ROLL TIDE!

 

WhaTHellsgoingonhere

(5,252 posts)
20. No doubt he's your quintessential Fantasy Football QB
Sun Jan 17, 2016, 10:21 AM
Jan 2016

but you have to expect something stupid to happen. Lucky it didn't cost him the game. But he's got another chance to end the Cards season.

But don't let that stop you from putting him at the top of your Fantasy Football draft board. He produces all right.

JonLP24

(29,348 posts)
21. I dont play ff
Sun Jan 17, 2016, 12:48 PM
Jan 2016

im an az fan and I couldnt be more satisfied but all qbs make mistakes but for some reason they are magnified with Palmer. he had over 300 yds off of 30_35 attempts.

 

WhaTHellsgoingonhere

(5,252 posts)
22. He's like Cutler. If you've followed their careers, every mistake is magnified
Sun Jan 17, 2016, 12:57 PM
Jan 2016

because they've made critical mistakes throughout their careers. Good QBs, but complete dumbshits. You just can't trust guys like Palmer and Cutler.

Edit: Alternatively, and more accurately, ever success is magnified.

JonLP24

(29,348 posts)
24. he is a hell a lot better than cutler
Sun Jan 17, 2016, 01:05 PM
Jan 2016

denver is my afc team so I know cutler. palmer is far from dump but more importantly he is a very confident player and always forget the mistakes, move on and win the game. go back 4 seasons and compare with manning, brady, and Wilson

 

WhaTHellsgoingonhere

(5,252 posts)
25. He's absolutely Cutler, but Cutler is a lot tougher.
Sun Jan 17, 2016, 01:09 PM
Jan 2016

Cutler had a couple of Fantasy Football, pro-bowl seasons, too.

JonLP24

(29,348 posts)
26. 8.7 ypa
Sun Jan 17, 2016, 01:16 PM
Jan 2016

I doubt cutler has had a mvp level season. big difference. az routinely defeated cutler Chicago. best season all time in chi_st. louis_az history

 

WhaTHellsgoingonhere

(5,252 posts)
29. You're married to FF stats. Can't argue with guys like you
Sun Jan 17, 2016, 01:20 PM
Jan 2016

Both will break your heart. Can't trust them. Palmer was a freak in Oakland but cursed by stupid decisions.

JonLP24

(29,348 posts)
32. The Super Bowl FPI favorite is ...
Sun Jan 17, 2016, 01:57 PM
Jan 2016

First, Arizona is perhaps the most complete team in the NFL. The Cardinals have ranked in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency for 15 straight weeks and are projected to have the most efficient offense and third-most-efficient defense of any playoff team this postseason.

It’s easy to focus on Arizona’s most recent loss, to the Seahawks, but that is one game in a 16-game sample. In their other 15 games, the Cardinals were the most dominant and consistent team in the NFL.

Entering Week 17, Arizona had an NFL-best plus-13.7 scoring margin and won six games by at least 23 points, tied for the most in a season since the 1996 Packers.

Although some quarterbacks have had better six- or seven-game stretches than Carson Palmer, no quarterback was more consistently efficient over the course of the entire season. He led the league in Total QBR and became the first player since Tom Brady in 2007 to post an above-average QBR in each of his first 15 games.

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/113164/and-the-super-bowl-fpi-favorite-is

In Oakland he was among the leaders in YPA but lead the league in picks. He threw a lot his first season due to forcing the ball to Fitzgerald (young AZ qbs before him often forced the ball to Fitzgerald but the following season, under Arians' system he stopped and I couldn't be more satisfied. He gives Arizona the best chance to win out of any QB available but he led them to 10-6 season, Arizona began the next one 9-2 and somewhere around there Palmer got a season ending injury from the St. Louis defensive line. This season led them to #2 all time ppg average.

 

WhaTHellsgoingonhere

(5,252 posts)
23. You're probably giving Palmer props for that late TD pass to Floyd that
Sun Jan 17, 2016, 01:02 PM
Jan 2016

put the Cards up 17-13. That's an example of magnifying his successes.

That was a pass that never had a chance because it hit the elbow of the defender, but by dumbshit luck, was deflected right to Floyd.

JonLP24

(29,348 posts)
28. dumbshit luck is why the game went into ot
Sun Jan 17, 2016, 01:19 PM
Jan 2016

why a face to the mask negated 99 yd int. besides even if that pass was incomplete az still had more downs at the 10

 

WhaTHellsgoingonhere

(5,252 posts)
30. What does that have to do with magnifying Palmer's successes?
Sun Jan 17, 2016, 01:24 PM
Jan 2016

I think your best point was his game is always magnified. He's a stat machine. That has a lot to do with the way he's perceived. His failures are a function of people losing their objectivity because he's a stat machine.

JonLP24

(29,348 posts)
31. ypa passing is the most predictive stat
Sun Jan 17, 2016, 01:29 PM
Jan 2016

followed by defensive ypa. arizona ranking in both categories suggests they have the best odds to win super bowl.

im on a phone so difficult to make my points well

 

WhaTHellsgoingonhere

(5,252 posts)
33. That's cool. I'm only staying engaged because Carolina is destroying Seattle :(
Sun Jan 17, 2016, 02:00 PM
Jan 2016

The most important thing is an OL. Then solid RBs who can pass protect and double as receivers. WRs next, but I'd put a TE right up their.

Cutler had it all in 2013, and not surprisingly, made few errors and had a Pro-Bowl season. Aside from 2013, he's gotten the living shit kicked out of him and, not surprisingly, made dumbass decisions. A few weeks ago, Rodgers lost 2 OL and, without receivers, played like he was completely lost and got pounded. Looked like less than mediocre. But he's not a dumbshit, and when he got his line back, he became a genius again. Aside from 2013, Cutler has never had the luxury of having a supporting cast and playing in the same system. And he's a dumbshit.

He's like Adrian Peterson. You know Peterson is going to fumble, so he's actually a liability in a close game. At least I know that. At least you can bench Peterson. The Cardinals are stuck with Palmer and his propensity to make errors.

 

WhaTHellsgoingonhere

(5,252 posts)
40. Carolina now up 10-0 and Arians can't hide your guy Palmer anymore
Sun Jan 24, 2016, 07:17 PM
Jan 2016

He's off to a shit start. Lucky he hasn't thrown an int already.

 

WhaTHellsgoingonhere

(5,252 posts)
41. That interception in the endzone at 24-7 is quintessential Palmer
Sun Jan 24, 2016, 08:22 PM
Jan 2016

He may finish the game with 400 yards, but they will lose, and it's because you cannot trust this guy in a big game. He's unsettled then panics which leads to really poor decisions.

JonLP24

(29,348 posts)
42. We dont know how much the injured
Mon Jan 25, 2016, 03:22 PM
Jan 2016

index finger is affecting his passes but there was so much wrong w muffs, drops, and bad bounces plus they couldnt stop cam putting them in a hole where I would expect mistakes from any qb. all that said he was one of the best when trailing. we will see what happens next year.

lovemydog

(11,833 posts)
18. Pats dismantled the Chiefs.
Sun Jan 17, 2016, 12:42 AM
Jan 2016

I don't think the Chiefs ever had a lead. Brady & Gronkowski led the way for the Patriots. Of course.

Cardinals defeat the Packers in overtime. Another crazy whacky can't believe I just saw that game. Rogers made some phenomenal throws especially in the fourth quarter. Future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald came through for the Cards with some game saving & game winning catches, runs & dives. Quarterback Carson Palmer was erratic (threw two interceptions) but had some gritty plays as well.

Response to lovemydog (Original post)

lovemydog

(11,833 posts)
36. Panthers huge first half carried them
Mon Jan 18, 2016, 07:09 AM
Jan 2016

through the Seahawks game.

Broncos defense & some good running got them past the Steelers.

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