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When I saw the ground hogs prediction of an early spring it didnt feel correct to me. 
Back atcha.
Look at the weather in your location. That is the clue.
P. Phil is in Pennsylvania...very far from where I live. And the weather where P. Phil is at was snow (or so said the NWS webpage for Punxsutawney).
It was sunny here on Feb. 2nd.
Today it is foggy/overcast, and has stayed that way all day. The sun reaches 15 degrees Aquarius today, which is more in line with the old celebration of Imbolc.
It was the church which tried to fix all the old nature celebrations to a particular calendar date. The ancient peoples probably looked to local signs...like the shedding, or lack of same, by your cat.
My cat isn't shedding very much yet, either. However, there is a small tree in my neighbor's yard that has had catkins out for about a week and a half. 
I wrote down the weather for each day in my almanac. Now I just need to wait and see which day's prediction is more accurate.