roduct: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Jan 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 01-Jan 03 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 01-Jan 03 2024

Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03
00-03UT 0.33 4.00 2.33
03-06UT 1.00 3.67 2.00
06-09UT 1.00 3.00 2.00
09-12UT 1.67 2.67 2.00
12-15UT 2.00 2.00 2.00
15-18UT 3.00 0.67 2.00
18-21UT 3.67 1.67 2.00
21-00UT 4.00 2.00 2.33

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 01-Jan 03 2024

Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03
S1 or greater 25% 25% 25%

Rationale: There exists a chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms
over the next three days.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 31 2023 2155 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 01-Jan 03 2024

Jan 01 Jan 02 Jan 03
R1-R2 60% 60% 60%
R3 or greater 25% 25% 25%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a chance for R3
(Strong), are are likely over the next three days due primarily to the
flare potential from Region 3536.
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