2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumSteve Kornacki just reported on MSNBC that the PA vote count difference between Trump and Hillary
just dropped from approximately 70K in favor of Trump down to 46,978 before the recount even starts. Apparently there were some votes in Philadelphia that had not been counted and certified and those votes came in this morning resulting in the update. A reduction of approx 23,022 votes just as the recount is ramping up. Interesting that we hadn't heard about these outstanding votes previous and they just wiped out more than a third of Trumps lead in the state. Hmmmmm!!!!!!
CaliforniaPeggy
(152,095 posts)I'll be curious as to what, if anything, comes of it.
Coyotl
(15,262 posts)All the counties are submitting their official totals, and they all add votes to election night returns, most add more Trump votes but Philadelphia is an urban center with lots of voters voting blue. No more shifts this big remain out.
SoCalMusicLover
(3,194 posts)The media has moved on, and is now in full trump president-elect mode. To them, this is just sour grapes by the Democrats, so even if there turns out to be significant fraud, the media will dismiss it as irrelevant, since in their minds, the election is over.
I'm extremely glad there is a recount going on, but sadly I don't expect anything to change. The fact the repubs are not even putting up much of a fight is indication to me that they are unafraid of any possible revisions to the electoral votes. The moment the danger becomes real, you can bet they will do everything possible, legal or illegal, to make certain Mr T is still given the throne.
okieinpain
(9,397 posts)think we could put hillary in office without a civil war. just asking.
SoCalMusicLover
(3,194 posts)Once the votes came in, Gore actually won the election. This was of course, reported by the media. I think it made Page 20 of the NYT.
The Democrats and Hillary in particular, will not want a civil war. Just like Gore, just like Kerry, she will smile and say that she's doing what's best for the country, and not fight it.
I remember how Gore said he would fight. How Kerry said he would fight. Give up your belief that Hillary is a fighter, yada yada....
The most our side will gain is more bragging rights. Meanwhile, the repubs will have the scoreboard. Because in politics, it's not how you play the game, it's the final score at the buzzer that matters. And the repubs have already turned off the clock.
okieinpain
(9,397 posts)Buckeye_Democrat
(15,042 posts)... Gore would have still lost if Florida if they had applied the Democratic-suggested recount methods.
Ironically, Gore would have won if they had applied the Republican-suggested recount methods.
How to treat hanging chads, dimples, etc.
It's been awhile since I read their report, so maybe I'm remembering wrong?
rzemanfl
(30,288 posts)thereafter. I think the conclusion was Gore would have won a statewide recount in Florida.
The Wizard
(12,866 posts)Grey Lemercier
(1,429 posts)have won by 42 to 171 votes if every county had been recounted, BUT there were 2200 ballots from other counties that were never counted so that even might not be true.
Another recount should Bush would have won if it went statewide and used the most commonly accepted standard.
We will never truly know. Gore fucked up huge by not making it statewide.
http://www.factcheck.org/2008/01/the-florida-recount-of-2000/
NewJeffCT
(56,840 posts)I believe. According to their methodology, Gore would have won 4 out of 5 of the different methods.
from wikipedia:
Florida Ballot Project recounts[edit]
The National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, sponsored by a consortium of major United States news organizations, conducted the Florida Ballot Project, a comprehensive review of 175,010 ballots that were collected from the entire state, not just the disputed counties that were recounted.[52] These ballots contained undervotes (votes with no choice made for president) and overvotes (votes made with more than one choice marked).
The project's goal was to determine the reliability and accuracy of the systems used in the voting process, including how different systems correlated with voter mistakes. The total number of undervotes and overvotes in Florida amounted to 3% of all votes cast in the state. The review's findings were reported in the media during the week after November 12, 2001, by the organizations that funded the recount: Associated Press, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, The St. Petersburg Times, The Palm Beach Post and Tribune Publishing, which included the Los Angeles Times, South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Orlando Sentinel and Chicago Tribune.[53][54] The NORC concluded that if the disputes over the validity of all the ballots statewide in question had been consistently resolved and any uniform standard applied, the electoral result would have been reversed and Gore would have won by 107115 votes if only two of the three coders had to agree on the ballot. When counting ballots wherein all three coders agreed, Gore would have won the most restrictive scenario by 127 votes and Bush would have won the most inclusive scenario by 110 votes. Inclusive in media reporting likely refers to including the undervotes (only) as these people were then included in the vote. Whether overvotes were truly nullified in counts is not known.[55]
Subsequent analyses cast further doubt on conclusions that Bush would likely still have won had the U.S. Supreme Court not intervened. An analysis of the NORC data by University of Pennsylvania researcher Steven F. Freeman and journalist Joel Bleifuss concluded that after a recount of all uncounted votes using any standard (inclusive, strict, statewide or county by county), Gore would have been the victor.[56] Such a statewide review including all uncounted votes was a real possibility, as Leon County Circuit Court Judge Terry Lewis, whom the Florida Supreme Court had assigned to oversee the statewide recount, had scheduled a hearing for December 13 (mooted by the U.S. Supreme Court's final ruling on the 12th) to consider the question of including overvotes. Subsequent statements by Lewis and internal court documents support the likelihood that overvotes would have been included in the recount.[57] Florida State University professor of public policy Lance deHaven-Smith observed that, even considering only undervotes, "under any of the five most reasonable interpretations of the Florida Supreme Court ruling, Gore does, in fact, more than make up the deficit".[58] Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting's analysis of the NORC study and media coverage of it supports these interpretations and criticizes the coverage of the study by media outlets such as the New York Times and the other media consortium members.[54]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Florida_election_recount
Grey Lemercier
(1,429 posts)Samantha
(9,314 posts)The only way Gore could have received one would be through permission of the Governor (and we all remember who that was) or by court order. The Florida Supreme Court did order the statewide recount, and it should have had the last word. The Constitution clearly delegates the right to run Presidential elections to the states, and each state must outline its election laws in the state constitution. The Supreme Court jumped in and took the appeal from the Florida Supreme Court.
The "Republican rules" referred to in this thread was the older version of the rules which had been amended about two years earlier. The revised rules were the ones that Gore referred to in selecting a small number of counties for a sampling recount. Gore used the right rules; Bush illegally used the old ones because the Bush operators thought it was to his advantage.
Two years prior to Election 2000, a candidate for mayor was elected I believe in Miami (but I could be wrong) whose opponent hotly contested the win, saying the "winner" had stolen the election. The issue went to court. After a long trial, the "winner" was declared the loser, and the "loser" took over the mayoral seat. And that is why Florida revised its election law so it would never face this type of embarrassing situation again. Little did it know ....
The Supreme Court tried to justify stopping the recount by two laws: the Safe Harbor Law, a law passed centuries earlier when the states sent their slate of electors to Washington to be counted BY PONY EXPRESS. Often the riders and the horses did not get going until too late to reach DC by the time of the vote. Thus we received the Safe Harbor law to prevent a more timely dispatch of votes. In the year 2000, when slates were dispatched via more expeditious methods than by pony express, this law was one of the main laws used to stop the recount -- the potential violation of the Safe Harbor deadline.
The second law regarding equal protection of the vote was also cited as a reason for stopping the recount. Should Gore prevail in the recount by having votes not counted the first go-around but included in the second round tallied which made him the winner of the election, that would be less than fair to the original voters whose votes were first counted. The thinking stated was that a greater weight would be given to votes picked up in Round 2 than Round 1, and that would not be fair to the original voters. So the Supreme Court disallowed the recount on that equal weight issue. In handing the election to Bush*, the Supreme Court essentially offset the votes of nearly 500,000 people nationwide, the approximate popular vote win Gore achieved over Bush.*
If this sounds crazy to you, it is due to the fact that the whole thing was just that. As I said above, the Supreme Court had no authority to overrule the Florida Supreme Court, and this judgment handed down by it was based on political preferences as opposed to following the supreme law of the land.
And that is exactly why Bush was considered by many to be illegitimate, the protests happened at his inauguration, and this very website sprang into existence. I will always be thankful for the creation of DU because it carried me and many others through the deep, dark years of the Bush* selection.
Sam
Grey Lemercier
(1,429 posts)Samantha
(9,314 posts)See you around.
Sam
Pacifist Patriot
(24,903 posts)Samantha
(9,314 posts)Baitball Blogger
(48,043 posts)No way was this done by accident.
The Wielding Truth
(11,421 posts)Bettie
(17,097 posts)Letting the orange man take office is NOT what is best for the country.
Anyone who says that is lying or doesn't really care about what happens to the country.
I'm so tired of Dems refusing to fight for US.
SharonAnn
(13,883 posts)Releasing the report the day after 9-11 meant that it got lost in the 9-11 reporting.
SoCalMusicLover
(3,194 posts)Strange that it happened to come out that day. Not that it would have mattered. When there is any doubt, it's usually just coincidence.
world wide wally
(21,830 posts)Better now than when the Trumpophiles have the army on their side.
That or just surrender now.
okieinpain
(9,397 posts)uponit7771
(91,761 posts)... time to get busy
MFM008
(20,000 posts)They want it... they may get it.
politicaljunkie41910
(3,335 posts)So you're saying we should just allow an election to be stolen because the other party probably won't give up the presidency easily, even if they are caught red handed trying to steal an election. If that's your attitude and the attitude of the Democratic Party, than the Democratic Party is a bunch of pussies who should decertified as a political party and go the way of the Whigs and other political parties which cease to exist. I have no desire to fight for a party which is unwilling to fight for itself.
triron
(22,240 posts)Why is the federal gov't hiding the truth about the Russian interference in the election?
wtf is going on?
okieinpain
(9,397 posts)INdemo
(7,020 posts)won Im not sure the entire National Guard would respond when ordered to help keep everything civil
murielm99
(31,436 posts)bring it on. It would be lawful for her to take office. A civil war would not be lawful, so screw them. If we have right on our side, bring it on. We don't need to cower away from this orange monster. We need to stand up to him and his brownshirts. (Or are they orangeshirts)?
uponit7771
(91,761 posts)... before they fought a damn thAng
trueblue2007
(18,116 posts)NO QUESTION ABOUT IT.
she would be certified and he would be OUT ON HIS RUMP
okieinpain
(9,397 posts)im pretty sure there have been plenty of "for the good of the country" moments we don't know about. hell gore vs. bush is one isn't it.
YOHABLO
(7,358 posts)Demographically, contrary to what people might believe, we're a very purple nation. Does the civil war end up being another Hutu vs.Tutsi scenario where neighbors begin killing each other?
DK504
(3,847 posts)They are already deliberately not reporting or misreporting every thing. I'm sure Steve K will be fired immediately since he reported that votes haven't been counted.
politicaljunkie41910
(3,335 posts)uponit7771
(91,761 posts)ailsagirl
(23,802 posts)okieinpain
(9,397 posts)suicide by burning themselves up in their house. which just happened to have a large number of boxes that might have been poll votes but we can't tell now because the house burned up.
politicaljunkie41910
(3,335 posts)an additional 5,834 votes than I reported in the OP. The reason I'm making the change is because Kornacki rounded the original difference to 70,000 and that is the number I used in my calculation in the OP. I subsequently found my notes with the original difference and noticed that the original difference was 75,834 representing an addition 5,834 votes than I reported in the OP. I thought that difference of an additional 5,834 votes was worth mentioning.
red dog 1
(29,320 posts)"Hillary's gap in PA just dropped by 23K"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10028322171
Also from that OP
Reply # 48
"She's only 15K votes shy of (automatic) recount"
(If the vote is less than 1/2 percent, PA has to do a statewide recouint)
Reply # 41
"Found a link"
(Click on the link in this reply)
mitty14u2
(1,015 posts)Baitball Blogger
(48,043 posts)We're just using the process as it was meant to be used.
TeddyBear 1
(79 posts)Michigan put on HOLD for recount by Trump - something is not right... why is he doing this????
Tomorrow at 9:30 est.. is important meeting in Michigan about this..
Trump files objection to Jill Stein-led election recount in Michigan
President-elects attorneys claim Stein is not entitled to a recount and describe Green party candidates actions as creating an electoral farce
Donald Trump asked the state of Michigan on Thursday to reject Jill Steins request for a recount of the presidential election.
Attorneys for the US president-elect argued in a filing to Michigan election officials that Stein was not entitled to the recount and that it could not be completed in time before the state must cast its electoral college votes.
Michigan should not grant this lawless, insulting request, and its voters should not risk having the Electoral College door knocked off its hinges, all because a one-percent candidate is dissatisfied with the elections outcome, Trumps filing said.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/01/donald-trump-michigan-recount-objection
Trumps filing said. PDF Link http://www.michigan.gov/documents/sos/Objection_to_Recount_Petition_544089_7.pdf
Michigan Corrupt, Republican Run, Russian hacks, Just Trust Trump, No F'ing Way!
Generic Brad
(14,374 posts)A cheating loser at that.
Beartracks
(13,565 posts)dhill926
(16,953 posts)andym
(5,683 posts)Wonder why?
gejohnston
(17,502 posts)What districts are they counting?
gejohnston
(17,502 posts)you realize how these recently discovered votes will look to a lot of nonpartisans who are paying attention?
Baitball Blogger
(48,043 posts)"Hillary votes were not counted."
Baitball Blogger
(48,043 posts)MontanaMama
(24,023 posts)Some things are worth fighting for. I'm not for rolling over and having this election stolen if/when the numbers turn in our favor. The mere fact that orange hitler is trying to stop this juggernaut speaks volumes.
drm604
(16,230 posts)I thought they were still battling it out in court.
lonestarnot
(77,097 posts)Blaukraut
(5,908 posts)Or will it just be an afterthought and Trump will remain the victor on paper?
andym
(5,683 posts)and in the very unlikely case Hillary Clinton won all three states after all-- she would be President.
duffyduff
(3,251 posts)Her concession speech means nothing if she won outright, which I strongly suspect she did.
Plucketeer
(12,882 posts)hasn't taken the oath yet.
BzaDem
(11,142 posts)cilla4progress
(25,908 posts)just keep Obama in office! He's got the highest popularity ratings of all!
INdemo
(7,020 posts)for Hillary...His script will be more Trump friendly on his next show or he could be be doing his show on Sundays at 3AM
jimlup
(8,004 posts)yesterday...