2016 Postmortem

TwilightZone

(28,833 posts) Thu Dec 8, 2016, 08:46 PM Dec 2016

With all the talk about "the middle" this campaign season, it's interesting to note that...

Hillary won moderates 52/41.

Apropos of nothing, really. The exit polls just revealed some things that are kind of interesting to me. I'm a bit of a stats nut, if an amateurish one. Some things take on a little more significance in light of the narrow gaps in some states.

People who made up their minds in the last week went 50/38 Trump. The Comey effect? The massive Trump ad buys?
People who made up their minds in October: 50/37 Trump
People who made up their minds in September: 50/46 Trump
People who decided before then: 52/45 Hillary.

Hello, early voting.

Also of note: 12% of people who decided in the last week and 13% who decided in October voted other. Prior to that, only 4% and 3%, respectively.

10% of self-identified liberals voted for Trump. 6% more voted other.

9% of Democrats voted for Trump. 29% of Latinos. 29% of Asians.

26% of people who identified as non-religious voted for Trump. And 81% of evangelicals.

14% of GLBT voters voted for Trump.

17% of people who opposed the border wall voted for Hillary.

10% of people who approved of Obama's job performance voted for Trump.

Hillary easily won the under-30 crowd, 55/37

Veterans went 61/34 Trump

Top issues
Foreign policy: Hillary 60/34
Economy: Hillary 52/42
Immigration: Trump 64/32
Terrorism: Trump 57/39

So...it wasn't primarily the economy as some have asserted, at least not nationally. Not even close, really.

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html

4 replies

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With all the talk about "the middle" this campaign season, it's interesting to note that... (Original Post) TwilightZone Dec 2016 OP

That is the lowest percent of LGBT dsc Dec 2016 #1

Down 8% from 2012, according to the poll. TwilightZone Dec 2016 #4

And she won the popular vote. NCTraveler Dec 2016 #2

Agreed. TwilightZone Dec 2016 #3

dsc

(52,631 posts)

1. That is the lowest percent of LGBT

Reply to TwilightZone (Original post)

Thu Dec 8, 2016, 09:09 PM

Dec 2016

To vote Republican since they've started counting it

TwilightZone

(28,833 posts)

4. Down 8% from 2012, according to the poll.

Reply to dsc (Reply #1)

Thu Dec 8, 2016, 10:28 PM

Dec 2016

Romney got 22% in 2012. 22% to 14% -- that's a substantial change.

NCTraveler

(30,481 posts)

2. And she won the popular vote.

Reply to TwilightZone (Original post)

Thu Dec 8, 2016, 09:22 PM

Dec 2016

What those stats are suppose to be reflective of. It's a regional game.

TwilightZone

(28,833 posts)

3. Agreed.

Reply to NCTraveler (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 8, 2016, 09:44 PM

Dec 2016

It kind of puts in perspective, though, how relatively small swings in the electorate would have made a difference. And how assumptions "we" make aren't 100% - often, not even in the ballpark.

And how fickle politics is. And voters. I read somewhere that 5% of the people who wanted *more* liberal policies than Obama's voted for Trump. It would be funny if it weren't so frustrating.

And, none of this even touches on turnout. Great in some places; not so much in others. Hillary won Harris County, TX (Houston) by more than Trump won a dozen states. It was a rather strange election.

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