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Fast Walker 52

(7,723 posts)
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 06:50 PM Dec 2016

Key factors that led to Trump winning, according to my calculations:

Last edited Tue Dec 13, 2016, 07:58 AM - Edit history (1)

30% -- the media's coverage of the campaign, and idiotic focus on Hillary's emails and neglect of issues of substance (e.g. climate change, jobs plans, healthcare). This part includes Comey's late breaking announcement on her emails (October surprise).

20% -- related to hacking by Russia, wikileaks, creating chaos and confusion about the Democrats

20% -- the historical situation of conservatives pissed off after 8 years of Obama and not wanting 4 more years of a "liberal" president (threats of gun control, keeping abortion legal, gay marriage, etc)

10% -- Trump's ability to game media coverage, lie effortlessly and demagogue like a champion

10% -- voter suppression efforts by the GOP

10%-- missteps by Hillary's campaign and her flaws as a candidate

The MAIN POINT is that in a close election, as this last one was, any of these factors could tip it one way or the other. Russian hacking definitely played a role.

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Key factors that led to Trump winning, according to my calculations: (Original Post) Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 OP
Progressive Puritans Charles Bukowski Dec 2016 #1
yes, but I think that's where the Russian hacks/wikileaks really played a role in amplifying their Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #5
i put more into russia hacking/fbi. JI7 Dec 2016 #2
It was her job zipplewrath Dec 2016 #3
but I think overall her campaign did a good job -- not enough obviously, but reasonably good Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #6
She was in trouble from the beginning zipplewrath Dec 2016 #17
Yes, all points well taken. She was kind of stuck. The thing that really hurt though was the polls Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #18
+1 uponit7771 Dec 2016 #4
argh...I hate this! he doesn't game media coverage...the media is game for it! JCanete Dec 2016 #7
yes, that's why I think the media is the number #1 cause for Trump's win Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #14
Well, don't forget Bernie or Busters. LisaL Dec 2016 #8
McConnel withholding information lame54 Dec 2016 #9
yeah-- true. I guess that falls under the Russian hacking category overall Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #13
No way... lame54 Dec 2016 #15
fair enough. I agree he is and I wonder what would have happened if McConnell hadn't have blocked Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #19
Hate to say, but probably nothing zipplewrath Dec 2016 #20
I agree, not to mention that stories of Russian hacking were already out there and being ignored Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #24
Good analysis hueymahl Dec 2016 #10
hmm, yes-- that actually hasn't been mentioned before that I've seen Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #11
"The electorate's general distaste for having one family too involved in the levers of power." LenaBaby61 Dec 2016 #30
fixed the numbers, since they added up to 110% before! Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #12
Anyone who's trying to blame just one factor is selling something. n/t Orsino Dec 2016 #16
Sorta zipplewrath Dec 2016 #22
Emails budkin Dec 2016 #21
I think you summed it up nicely mtnsnake Dec 2016 #23
One Word: RUSSIA Corey_Baker08 Dec 2016 #25
Lol. You boys are so cute. Squinch Dec 2016 #26
I'd put the media coverage at 75% at least. unblock Dec 2016 #27
Trump was on the air a lot. If that was not enough to convince people he's a buffoon, racist, bigot Hoyt Dec 2016 #28
99.9% voter suppression and ballot rat f*cking in my estimation ymetca Dec 2016 #29
Russian hacking was the problem... dubyadiprecession Dec 2016 #31
Her lack of a penis? sfwriter Dec 2016 #32
 

Charles Bukowski

(1,132 posts)
1. Progressive Puritans
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 07:04 PM
Dec 2016

and their idiotic "I'm not voting for the lesser of two evils" rationale definitely played a role.

Also, let's give Bernie Sanders credit for half-heartedly dropping out of the race a full two months later than he should have, giving young impressionable voters a false sense of hope that he'd win. Their disillusionment was heard loud and clear on election day.

 

Fast Walker 52

(7,723 posts)
5. yes, but I think that's where the Russian hacks/wikileaks really played a role in amplifying their
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 10:15 PM
Dec 2016

disappointment and resentment.

zipplewrath

(16,692 posts)
3. It was her job
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 08:31 PM
Dec 2016

You have to assign more to the candidate. It was their job to address those other realities of politics. Well, except for the whole Russian thing. But I do think that the DNC and most democrats didn't acknowledge the challenge of a party getting a "third term".

 

Fast Walker 52

(7,723 posts)
6. but I think overall her campaign did a good job -- not enough obviously, but reasonably good
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 10:18 PM
Dec 2016

given the bizarre nature of the race.

She rocked the debates, and was solid throughout. Clearly there were missteps at the end though.

I think they put too much stock in the polls, which were definitely way off.

zipplewrath

(16,692 posts)
17. She was in trouble from the beginning
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 12:41 PM
Dec 2016

She was in serious trouble from the beginning, which is why Bernie became such a threat to her. Yes, there were many mistakes made, the real question is could she have run a "good enough" campaign to win. Considering that "third terms" are very hard, one wonders if she could have done anything.

Just look at their slogans. Hers suggested that things were good and we needed to keep moving in the same direction. He suggested things were "bad" and we needed to change directions. She got the majority of the support. Unfortunately, the people that decided the election were people who thought that we were going in the wrong direction. And really, looking from their point of view, one can understand their frustrations. Conversely, there is no way she could have address their concerns in a meaningful way during the campaign. First she would have lost much of the support she did have (which was a majority) and second, these people where not going to accept someone with such a long history of involvement at the national level. Again, a minority of the population by a long stretch, and even a minority of some of the key demographics. Unfortunately, they were spread "just right" (which is why some people are suspicious that there was someone doing the spreading).

This is particularly frustrating to me because I've been concerned about this for several election cycles, that someone in the GOP would figure out that the democrats had lost much of the blue collar vote. I just never thought it would be Vladimir Trump.

 

Fast Walker 52

(7,723 posts)
18. Yes, all points well taken. She was kind of stuck. The thing that really hurt though was the polls
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 03:22 PM
Dec 2016

being so wrong. Otherwise, they would have had a different strategy. But the whole thing was a complex moving machine and every little thing factored.

Obviously they were over-confident, and I suspect they, like I always did, thought Trump was unelectable as president.

 

JCanete

(5,272 posts)
7. argh...I hate this! he doesn't game media coverage...the media is game for it!
Mon Dec 12, 2016, 11:58 PM
Dec 2016

He doesn't get credit for being a basic troll that they keep feeding.

 

Fast Walker 52

(7,723 posts)
14. yes, that's why I think the media is the number #1 cause for Trump's win
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 07:59 AM
Dec 2016

but he did know how to manipulate them, so have to give him some credit.

 

Fast Walker 52

(7,723 posts)
19. fair enough. I agree he is and I wonder what would have happened if McConnell hadn't have blocked
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 03:23 PM
Dec 2016

the report.

zipplewrath

(16,692 posts)
20. Hate to say, but probably nothing
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 04:01 PM
Dec 2016

I'm afraid the votes she needed to get, she wasn't going to get. Trump basically was right. He could shoot someone on Park Avenue and they'd still vote for him. The report might have increased her popular vote margin, by getting more votes in states she already won, or states where it still wouldn't have helped her win anyway. But I suspect in WI, MI, and PA, it wouldn't have changed anything.

hueymahl

(2,645 posts)
10. Good analysis
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 12:54 AM
Dec 2016

I think reasonable people can debate the percentages you used for each category, but you have listed all the main ones.

I would add the electorate's general distaste for having one family too involved in the levers of power. There was backlash against Jeb Bush for this reason. Clinton faced some of the same backlash.

 

Fast Walker 52

(7,723 posts)
11. hmm, yes-- that actually hasn't been mentioned before that I've seen
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 07:57 AM
Dec 2016

although I know some people did not want to see Bill back in the WH.

Thanks

LenaBaby61

(6,991 posts)
30. "The electorate's general distaste for having one family too involved in the levers of power."
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 05:55 PM
Dec 2016

Problem is does that same electorate even SEE or understand or grasp that you now have the tRump Crime Mob Family in there on steroids, and also involved with and are pro-RUSSIA up to their eyeballs.

tRump Crime Mob family (With an assist from their buddies the Russians).

zipplewrath

(16,692 posts)
22. Sorta
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 04:02 PM
Dec 2016

It's a collection of things. But you can separate them into "Things we could have handled, things completely out of control" and I think you can collect enough of the first that this election could have been won.

mtnsnake

(22,236 posts)
23. I think you summed it up nicely
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 04:25 PM
Dec 2016

If I was to use the same list of reasons you did, I would have it similarly but with a couple minor differences of percentage:

I would have it as 25%, 10%, 20%, 10%, 5%, 30%

unblock

(54,151 posts)
27. I'd put the media coverage at 75% at least.
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 05:45 PM
Dec 2016

Without Donnie receiving 80% of the coverage, and without the Hillary coverage being nearly all negative, none of the other factors matter. In fact, many of the other factors are actually subsets of the biased media factor.

The media should never have presented Donnie as a viable candidate. He should have been covered like Gary Johnson. That said, had they been merely 50-50, Hillary would have won handily, even with the other crap.

Notice how Hillary had a nice lead after the conventions and after each debate? Those were the only times the media was remotely fair.

 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
28. Trump was on the air a lot. If that was not enough to convince people he's a buffoon, racist, bigot
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 05:46 PM
Dec 2016

warmonger, poor businessman, liar, and worse., nothing the media could have done would have made a difference. People want an easy scapegoat, but I do not believe the media helped Trump. His ignorance, racism, white wingish leanings, etc., won it for him. That's what the people who vote in the key states wanted. Had Trump lost, the white wingers would have blamed the media. It ain't the media.

ymetca

(1,182 posts)
29. 99.9% voter suppression and ballot rat f*cking in my estimation
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 05:55 PM
Dec 2016

Seeing as HRC won the popular vote by a wide margin. The rest is just a collection of shiny objects the MSM wants us to obsess over. "Them's the rules!", all the pundits shout, while partisans toss ballots into a deep, dark hole.

Same as them relentlessly telling us the reason we're so poor is because we aren't clever, beautiful, talented, or just plain lucky enough, to ever be in their class.

And why? Because the Bible tells us so...

dubyadiprecession

(6,342 posts)
31. Russian hacking was the problem...
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 06:01 PM
Dec 2016

The Clinton's have always had a superior get out the vote ground game. It never helps if your base turns out to vote in blue states and their votes are changed electronically to trump.
Remember, Trump campaign stops in the end were reported as unstructured. Many said it looked like "Trump was trying to throw spaghetti at the wall" trying to figure a path to 270.

 

sfwriter

(3,032 posts)
32. Her lack of a penis?
Tue Dec 13, 2016, 08:12 PM
Dec 2016

I think the sexism of most Trump supporters goes without saying. Did anyone vote against her just because of this?

I've seen it fronted as a reason. It seems small compared to your list. Maybe 1%?

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