2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumDemocrats Have Mixed Feelings on 2020 Field
Beyond wanting a younger candidate, only 25% of Democrats say they want their candidate in 2020 to be someone who has run for President before. 41% would prefer someone who's never run before, and 34% say they're not sure one way or the other.
But despite saying that they generically want a younger candidate who hasn't run for President before, the top 2 choices of Democrats for 2020 at this very early stage are...people in their 70s who have run for President before.
Joe Biden leads the way for Democrats with 31% to 24% for Bernie Sanders, and 16% for Elizabeth Warren. They're the only folks we tested with meaningful support for the nomination at this point. Cory Booker gets 4%, Al Franken and Kirsten Gillibrand each get 3%, Sherrod Brown and Andrew Cuomo each get 2%, and Julian Castro gets less than 1%.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/12/democrats-have-mixed-feelings-on-2020-field.html
My two cents: Booker and Gillibrand will have a much easier time getting greater name recognition than Sanders, Biden and Warren will in getting younger.
vi5
(13,305 posts)I'd love for him to run for president, but hell I'm not sure why he's not more of a go-to guy for press, media, events, and all sorts of other stuff. He's funny, charming, intelligent and well versed on the issues and on the correct side of all the issues Dems need to be focused on.
ZoomBubba
(289 posts)... especially when it comes to Biden, who is going to be 78 and Bernie, who is going to be close to 80. It doesn't disqualify them, but it doesn't exactly scream certainty as far as lasting a full eight years.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)But will the masses vote for a black man again, especially after 4yrs of the racist presidency of Trump to make racism "acceptable" to practice again.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Clinton is the one who lost, not Obama.
meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)I thought it was lower than that. Who are these people?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)I guess 41% is the baseline of deplorables that live in this country.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)He's Paul Ryan on policy.
But, those numbers WILL go down once he has to either (1) break promises or (2) create huge amounts of pain in order to keep those promises.
ZoomBubba
(289 posts)... but you are probably right. But, I think he would at least be a great vice presidential candidate. It's kind of indicative of our society, but it seems that there is reluctance to support a ticket that doesn't at least have a white guy somewhere on it.
I didn't realize it, but a lot of purist Democrats hate Booker. His positions on charter schools may be a benefit in a general election though.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Again, with Obama having won twice and sitting at 59% approval ratings, maybe being like Obama is a good thing.
ZoomBubba
(289 posts)... but the whole Bernie ordeal seems to have a lot of the Democratic leadership spooked now. I'm afraid they're going to become obsessed with the under-30 vote, which has always been unreliable, and wind up isolating more consistent voters, which are people who pay taxes, have families, have full time jobs and tend to be moderate in inclination. When I heard Bernie, I heard a guy who was talking mostly to college kids and YUPPIES.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)the 2020 primary will feature more liberal positions than did the 2008 primary.
But, we're not going to nominate a socialist in 2020
meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)It really does appear that most likely candidates for the dems are in their late 60 into late 70s.
2020, if there would be a challenge to Trump on the republican side, I see Cory Gardner of Colorado. I don't like him but he's handsome, charismatic and has been keeping his head down a lot during the past 4-6yrs so may look appealing. Rubio will be back. Hell even Ted Cruz is younger than Biden, Warren or Sanders. But he might be tied up as a Supreme Court Justice
Who are our Barack Obama's hiding in the wings?
Auggie
(31,798 posts)Martin O'Malley should be one.
Response to meadowlark5 (Reply #4)
Name removed Message auto-removed
meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)Will have to look them up.
La Lioness Priyanka
(53,866 posts)you like to think of people who you find comforting, and new people are not comforting.
Here are a list of rising stars: Kamala harris, Kirsten Gillibrand, Gavin Newsom, Martin O'malley, Julian Castro, Andrew Cuomo, Vory Booker, and those are some off the top of my head.
the nytimes has a list too http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/06/24/opinion/sunday/14-young-democrats-to-watch.html?_r=0
dionysus
(26,467 posts)crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)And progressive or not, I like that about him. I'm a native New Yorker and shook hands with his dad in 4th grade (field trip to the statehouse, he stopped by and said hi to us). (I left NY about 10 years ago).
However, he has won me over on one issue. He is in the process of replacing a bridge (Tappan Zee) that is 20 years past its shelf life (built in 1945 to last 50 years). I used to commute over that bridge and it was consistently being worked on.
As much as I wanted him to run this year (he was my top pick) I don't believe that he wants the job. He's also not a charismatic guy and isn't PR friendly (I have my cats in the game Neko Atsume named after politicians-- 'Andrew Cuomo' is the one classified as aloof). For example, after Sandy instead of parading around like his counterpart in NJ, he did everything by conference call. In 2020, we need someone with the charisma of Barack Obama or Bill (not Hillary) Clinton.
IIRC he didn't give a speech at this year's DNC.
ismnotwasm
(42,454 posts)Not Hillary? What the actual fuck? You mean male?
KittyWampus
(55,894 posts)Hillary Clinton is not charismatic.
ismnotwasm
(42,454 posts)dionysus
(26,467 posts)Exilednight
(9,359 posts)He's a good guy, and does well, but nothing to get excited about.
Gillibrand only has name recognition because she took Hillary's seat. She'll fade fast.
O'Malley might have an easier time. I could actually see Axelrod coming out and running an O'Malley campaign in 2020. If that's the case then we have something big to look forward to.
Castro needs a bigger platform, where he finds it now I am not sure.
Cuomo can go away.
Kamala Harris could be a huge star. It just depends on who she puts around her. I could actually see David Plouffe running her campaign.
meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)He's either the current or former mayor of San Francisco. He might have a chance. He's very charismatic, seems like a strong leader, was mayor of large economy. I saw him on Bill Maher awhile back and I thought he was impressive.
Auggie
(31,798 posts)Democrats need politcians from the midwest to step up
meadowlark5
(2,795 posts)We've seen what republicans can do to an economy that large (Ahnold).
HeartachesNhangovers
(832 posts)the mayor when I lived in San Francisco. I will say that you will not find a more ambitious person than Gavin Newsom. He has been cooling his heels for the last 2 terms as Jerry Brown's lt. governor in CA (a do-nothing position). So at this point, Mr. Newsom is a former big-city mayor. I have to imagine that San Francisco is a pretty easy city to manage since it is a 100% Democratic town with a flood of property tax revenue coming in from properties that have all exploded in value in the last 30 years. So I would also consider Mr. Newsom to be a bit of a light-weight at this point. He needs to be successful in a big-time position before anyone will know whether he could handle being president. Remember that even the CA governor doesn't actually have to deal with any political opposition since Dems control the entire legislature and hold all state-wide offices.
RonniePudding
(889 posts)What a ludicrous assessment.
We just elected a fucking reality TV show host as president and you're worried about Newsom's chops?
GMAFB.
ANYTHING goes now when it comes to presidential candidates. We're in a new era. Best get with the times.
jfern
(5,204 posts)Retrograde
(10,648 posts)It may be 90% Democratic, but the infighting within the Board of Supes is legendary. It has a very large homeless population, since it's possible to live outdoors most of the year without dying (and there are documented cases of other localities dealing with their homeless by giving them a one-way ticket to SF) but there's not adequate shelter or support. The influx of so-called tech companies has driven the costs of housing and office space up so high that the former is no longer affordable for an average worker. And while new construction may be taxed at current market rates, California caps assessment increases to 2% annually, so revenue is not exactly flooding in.
Newsom, IMHO, did some innovative things as mayor (including allowing the first legally recognized same-sex marriages in the country), such as his attempts to address the homeless problems via vouchers and pushing for city-wide health care coverage, but his biggest liability in running for a national office is that he's a Californian (you know, from the land of fruits, flakes, and nuts). I'd lilke to see him go on to become our next governor - and if you think he's not going to have political opposition just because most of the state legislators have a D after their names, don't worry: I'm confident they'll find something to argue about.
crazycatlady
(4,492 posts)It's already known as the most liberal (and most expensive) city in this country.
If we want to win swing voters, this is not your guy.
La Lioness Priyanka
(53,866 posts)at this point, their projection for they/we want in 2020 is irrelevant.
Buckeye_Democrat
(15,042 posts)I'll reject candidates who I think are too cozy with big money.
Blue_Tires
(55,784 posts)geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)the party right now is leaderless so there's no one to signal to us what priorities are, what the plan is, etc.
leadership vacuums tend to get filled one way or another
Retrograde
(10,648 posts)then the White House. The GOP has shown what Congress can do when it decides to oppose the president: I think it will be easier to take back Congress than to put a Democratic president in office.
And while we're at it, let's take back at least of few state houses.
Wabbajack_
(1,300 posts)Hillary won the actual voting, lost due to razor thin margins in a few states, and the Democratic Party gained...what....5 House seats? The pukes are still above 240, yes?
And the Senate.....with many Dems in states won easily by Trump up in 2018? The Senate were Idaho/Alaska/Wyoming/The Dakotas/Utah/Nebraska have 7 times as many Senators as California?
Fact is we only have a chance at winning Congress if Trump is unpopular, meaning he would certainly lose reelection himself.
dsc
(52,631 posts)His education policies are flat out terrible. He is great on gay rights and some other issues but he would destroy public schools if Trump hasn't done so already.
DemocraticWing
(1,290 posts)In the middle of the 2012 election, no less. I can't see him standing up for Democratic ideals but hopefully he's changed.
Buckeye_Democrat
(15,042 posts)Can we please get a populist "grassroots" candidate who appeals to most African American voters too?!
AA's seemed to largely reject candidates who put "working class voters" at the forefront of their message, such as Jerry Brown in 1992, Howard Dean in 2004 and Bernie Sanders in 2016.
Obama succeeded, thankfully, although he also courted lots of money from Wall Street so he wasn't as "grassroots" as I would've preferred... although he at least came across that way to a large extent.
dsc
(52,631 posts)RonniePudding
(889 posts)Quixote1818
(30,386 posts)coolbreeze77
(35 posts)best chance to get the Obama coalition back.
StevieM
(10,540 posts)NCTraveler
(30,481 posts)andym
(5,683 posts)an "outsider."
totodeinhere
(13,306 posts)give it one more try in 2020. She will be about the same age as Bernie Sanders was in 2016. She would not be my first choice but obviously I would support her if she got the nomination.
Txbluedog
(1,128 posts)I'm a big fan of Mrs. Clinton but her time has passed. And frankly she's turned me off by refusing to take even the slightest of personal responsibility for HER loss
StevieM
(10,540 posts)the opposition spent over a year essentially calling you a miserable human being. This was the most hateful campaign of personal destruction in American history.
And it is hard to look beyond the fact that you had the race won--decisively--with 11 days to go until a corrupt FBI Director interfered.
I don't remember Mike Dukakis, Al Gore or John Kerry rushing out to do a self-reflective postmortem either.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)StevieM
(10,540 posts)she was treated.
Garrett78
(10,721 posts)As for 2018, it doesn't look good for Democrats. Too many vulnerable Senators in red states.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,777 posts)a "bloodbath" is not all but assured IMHO but we need to support and defend our seats and fight hard for any potential pickups. Congressional Democrats, particularly in the Senate, need to make things miserable for Republicans/Trump in whatever way they can and DNC needs to quickly figure out a way to turn out our voters in 2018. Given the antipathy already generated towards Trump before he even takes office and his own personal baggage, I believe that holding our own and possibly even making gains is quite doable.
Proud Liberal Dem
(24,777 posts)if Donald J. Trump can be President, we shouldn't really be spending so much time haggling over race, gender, age, etc. We just need to support and get behind (and get other people to support) whoever wins the Democratic primary to oppose Trump in 2020. We should be proud that we have a lot of qualified, electable people on our side of the aisle. Figuring out a way to get our voters to understand that politics isn't a "hobby" but a real "life vs. death" responsibility and get them out to the polls in every election should be what we really need to figure out. Republican voters sure already have. The irony seems to be that Republican policies tend to harm our voters more but we vote less.
bigdarryl
(13,190 posts)That's what got Hillary and the DNC in trouble with progressives
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)It's been ignored by our party for too long.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Party's problem is that it has been too heavily weighted towards the coasts while ignoring "flyover land."
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Harry Reid is hardly what you would call a coastal liberal. Yes, Nancy Pelosi, but has anyone ever suggested putting her on a Presidential ticket? No, they haven't.
Perfect example of what's wrong: marijuana legalization. Supported by a majority of Americans- even the flyover ones- and yet our east coast/beltway leaders are only now just starting to realize they cant ignore it or treat it like a giant joke, or ever worse be openly hostile to the idea, like DWS. While they treat it like some odd fringe issue, we have tax revenue and jobs on the line already.
Hell, Gov. Malloy of CT had a full blown temper tantrum the other day over MA's vote to legalize. i would call that just a regional problem, but Malloy is the chair of the Democratic Governor's Association, is he not? Why can't Kate Brown do that job?
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Part of it is just Senate/governors math. As many Democratic Senators from Delaware, Vermont and Rhode Island as from the entire west coast.
House members are necessary but very hard to attain national leadership status while in the House, especially with our party's gerontocracy. Ask Xavier Becerrra.
Party as a whole needs to be less wedded to the east coast, professional class urbanites, and the idea of centralized government (too often the assumption is that federal govt needs to be the source of all progressive policy fixes).
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Exilednight
(9,359 posts)We say we don't want someone who ran for president before, but I really believe that many people do not consider someone a true presidential candidate unless they win their party's nomination.
In my view, a primary candidate is someone who is competing to run for the presidency, not someone who is actually running for the presidency.
Ztolkins
(433 posts)Nuff said.
KamaAina
(78,249 posts)Supporter of privatized education.
And fair or not, Gillibrand would undoubtedly run smack into "We tried a woman before. It didn't work."