2016 Postmortem

YoungDemCA

(5,714 posts) Sun Dec 25, 2016, 08:17 PM Dec 2016

"It was clear from the start that Clinton was struggling to reassemble the Obama coalition."

On point.

...the electoral trends that put Donald J. Trump within striking distance of victory were clear long before Mr. Comey sent his letter. They were clear before WikiLeaks published hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee. They were even clear back in early July, before Mr. Comey excoriated Mrs. Clinton for using a private email server.

It was clear from the start that Mrs. Clinton was struggling to reassemble the Obama coalition.

At every point of the race, Mr. Trump was doing better among white voters without a college degree than Mitt Romney did in 2012 — by a wide margin. Mrs. Clinton was also not matching Mr. Obama’s support among black voters.

According to exit polls, Mr. Trump did better than Mr. Romney by 24 points among white voters without a degree making less than $30,000 a year. He won these voters by a margin of 62 to 30 percent, compared with Mr. Romney’s narrow win of 52 percent to 45 percent.

In general, exit poll data should be interpreted with caution — but pre-election polls show a similar swing, and the magnitude of the shifts most likely withstands any failings of the exit polls.

Nationally, there is no relationship between the decline in Democratic strength and the change in turnout. Mr. Trump made gains in white working-class areas, whether turnout surged or dropped.

The exit polls also show all of the signs that Mr. Trump was winning over Obama voters. Perhaps most strikingly, Mr. Trump won 19 percent of white voters without a degree who approved of Mr. Obama’s performance, including 8 percent of those who “strongly” approved of Mr. Obama’s performance and 10 percent of white working-class voters who wanted to continue Mr. Obama’s policies.

Mr. Trump won 20 percent of self-identified liberal white working-class voters, according to the exit polls, and 38 percent of those who wanted policies that were more liberal than Mr. Obama’s.

It strongly suggests that Mr. Trump won over large numbers of white, working-class voters who supported Mr. Obama four years earlier.

Mr. Trump’s gains among white working-class voters weren’t simply caused by Democrats staying home on Election Day.

The Clinton team knew what was wrong from the start, according to a Clinton campaign staffer and other Democrats. Its models, based on survey data, indicated that they were underperforming Mr. Obama in less-educated white areas by a wide margin — perhaps 10 points or more — as early as the summer.

The campaign looked back to respondents who were contacted in 2012, and found a large number of white working-class voters who had backed Mr. Obama were now supporting Mr. Trump.

The Clinton campaign believed it could compensate for the loss of the Obama coalition by winning the so-called “rising American electorate” or “coalition of the ascendant” of well-educated voters and Hispanic voters — a caricature of the Obama coalition.

These demographic shifts have benefited Democrats over the last decade, but most of these gains have come in noncompetitive states.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/23/upshot/how-the-obama-coalition-crumbled-leaving-an-opening-for-trump.html?_r=0

3 replies

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Highlight:

"It was clear from the start that Clinton was struggling to reassemble the Obama coalition." (Original Post) YoungDemCA Dec 2016 OP

That question of identity politics again. HassleCat Dec 2016 #1

How do we drill down to white, no degree, under $30k HoneyBadger Dec 2016 #2

Black voters overwhelmingly vote for Democrats across demographics mythology Dec 2016 #3

HassleCat

(6,409 posts)

1. That question of identity politics again.

Reply to YoungDemCA (Original post)

Sun Dec 25, 2016, 08:45 PM

Dec 2016

I prefer to call it what it is, racial politics. Marion Berry was the master and nobody will ever do it as well as he did it. Even so, we can do it to a degree, if we do it right. If we can figure out a way to convince black and Latino voters we will work hard for them and win for them, then every eligible black and Latino voter will vote, and they'll all vote for us. Whether or not this alienates white voters depends on what we do for them, what effort we make to show them they don't lose anything because of our efforts on behalf of blacks, Latinos, women, LGBT people, etc. Nothing wrong with identity politics if we do it right. We're just doing it wrong, that's all.

HoneyBadger

(2,297 posts)

2. How do we drill down to white, no degree, under $30k

Reply to YoungDemCA (Original post)

Sun Dec 25, 2016, 10:05 PM

Dec 2016

Vs a much less nuanced "black" voter, do we really have so little demographic data on black voters?

mythology

(9,527 posts)

3. Black voters overwhelmingly vote for Democrats across demographics

Reply to HoneyBadger (Reply #2)

Sun Dec 25, 2016, 11:21 PM

Dec 2016

Gore won 90%, Kerry won 88%, Obama won 96% in 2008, 93% in 2012 and Clinton won 88%. Black voters were about 13% of the electorate in 2016. They vote overwhelmingly for Democrats over time.

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