In the past, the choice would have been simple. Rainey, 33, leans Republican. He voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. But like others this cycle, he found the idea of backing GOP nominee Donald Trump repugnant, matched only by the nausea that accompanied the thought of pulling the lever for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

There is little disagreement that voters like Rainey ― the “late deciders” ― were ultimately responsible for Trump’s election. But a month and a half after his victory, an argument persists over why they voted the way they did. Clinton’s defenders blame FBI Director James Comey, who opened up a new investigation into Clinton-related emails 10 days before the election, only to close it a week later. Clinton’s critics say a campaign that was outworked and outsmarted in the Rust Belt states is merely in denial.

In interviews with a number of late deciding voters ― found through various social media networks ― a less elegant explanation emerges. Comey was a factor for some but not others, and even then, it’s not clear how decisive his letters were. For many voters, random, often arbitrary moments from the campaign proved motivating in often unexpected ways. That Clinton left herself vulnerable to their whims is the story of the election as much as the eleventh-hour pronouncement from the FBI director.

“I thought, ‘Do I dance with the devil I know or don’t?’” Michelle Hart recalled. “And I realized I’m calling them both ‘devil.’”

The Comey letter didn’t bother Hart. And, indeed, the night before the election, she found herself considering a vote for Clinton after being inspired by first lady Michelle Obama’s introductory remarks at a rally in Philadelphia. But then Clinton came onstage and delivered a milquetoast speech that seemed, to Hart, to lack any passion. The next day, she wrote in Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) as her choice for president.
But for some of the other late deciders who went to Trump or avoided Clinton, there seems to be a creeping sense of guilt. Shutt, of Iowa, said he wished Trump would abandon the campaign-like rhetoric he’s carried over to the transition. “He hasn’t blown anything up yet,” he said of the president-elect. “But that’s a pretty low bar, I know.”