2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumHow Analytics Failed Clinton
https://politicalwire.com/2016/12/26/analytics-failed-clinton/SNIP.............
Charlie Cook: The reliance, or perhaps over-reliance on analytics, may be one of the factors contributing to Clintons surprise defeat. The Clinton team was so confident in its analytical models that it opted not to conduct tracking polls in a number of states during the last month of campaign. As a consequence, deteriorating support in states like Michigan and Wisconsin fell below the radar screen, slippage that that traditional tracking polls would have certainly caught.
According to Kantar Media/CMAG data, the Clinton campaign did not go on the air with television ads in Wisconsin until the weeks of October 25 and November 1, spending in the end just $2.6 million. Super-PACs backing Clintons didnt air ads in Wisconsin until the last week of the campaign. In Michigan, aside for a tiny $16,000 buy by the campaign and a party committee the week of October 25, the Clinton campaign and its allied groups didnt conduct a concerted advertising effort until a week before the election.
In fact the Clinton campaign spent more money on television advertising in Arizona, Georgia and the Omaha markets than in Michigan and Wisconsin combined.
..............SNIP
The Velveteen Ocelot
(120,833 posts)They can't blame Comey and the Russians for that.
HoneyBadger
(2,297 posts)The Velveteen Ocelot
(120,833 posts)NWCorona
(8,541 posts)Can take credit for this massive blunder.
applegrove
(123,113 posts)that they had control over.
Yurovsky
(2,064 posts)for Clinton and her campaign staff.
I think she made an epic error in judgement by utilizing a personal server and squeezing every individual, company, and foreign government for donations to her foundation and/or her campaign. If she had used the government servers at the Dept of State, she would be measuring the Oval Office for drapes.
As for Podesta & Mook, they ignored Bill Clinton's advice to spend more resources in the Midwest, and, well, that was a serious fuck up, to put it mildly.
Certainly the Comey letter wasn't helpful, and the Russians being involved in trying to impact the race is bad (but the US has never had a problem interfering with other nations' elections). There were other negative factors as well, but we should not absolve Clinton or her campaign team from any complicity in this failure. $1.2 BILLION... Let that number soak in a minute...
The Velveteen Ocelot
(120,833 posts)(or given Comey and the Russians and the GOP so much ammunition) if the campaign managers hadn't been so convinced they had it all in the bag. I am not blaming Clinton herself for this; candidates don't make those strategic and tactical decisions - but Mook and Podesta didn't do her any favors and sure didn't earn whatever they got paid.
Yurovsky
(2,064 posts)a week long sweep through the Midwest and a bigger media buy in those states could've turned this election with ease. All of those states she lost by <100k votes would've gone blue and her EC victory would've mirrored an even larger popular vote margin.
I don't foist all the blame on Hillary, and her campaign staff did some things really well (3M vote margin is impressive). But any number of small controllable factors would've flipped the result, and that, combined with the denial on the part of too many fellow Democrats, make a replay of this outcome possible down the road. And that frustrates me to no end, as even pointing out the lessons we should learn gets you flame-sprayed by the die-hard HRC supporters who still view her as infallible. I'm too damn old to suffer through another GOP administration... I'm working as hard as I can to make sure the upcoming one is short and forgettable, and hopefully the last one I ever see.
dionysus
(26,467 posts)Yet somehow it's everyone else's fault (but mostly bernies)
AngryAmish
(25,704 posts)So he was ignored. So, so stupid.
Yurovsky
(2,064 posts)it's just that damned stupid and crazy. Bill Clinton's advice should have been the Holy Grail. Aside from Hillary herself, no one should have held sway over his counsel.
But yet some want to ignore Podesta & Mook's complicity in this. smdh...
uponit7771
(91,754 posts).... and that's about it
The Velveteen Ocelot
(120,833 posts)and ensure that whatever might happen doesn't derail the train. The Comey letter referencing a continuing investigation of the emails came out on Oct. 28. "The Clinton campaign did not go on the air with television ads in Wisconsin until the weeks of October 25 and November 1, spending in the end just $2.6 million. Super-PACs backing Clintons didnt air ads in Wisconsin until the last week of the campaign. In Michigan, aside for a tiny $16,000 buy by the campaign and a party committee the week of October 25, the Clinton campaign and its allied groups didnt conduct a concerted advertising effort until a week before the election." They should have been advertising in those states long before October instead of making a rather minimal effort after the Comey letter came out; if they had been proactive months previously by paying attention to tracking polls and not taking WI, MI and PA for granted, surely this October surprise would have had much less impact. This should not have been a close election, even with the influence of Comey and the Russians.
uponit7771
(91,754 posts)BeyondGeography
(40,014 posts). . .Turn that bus around, the Clinton team ordered SEIU. Those volunteers needed to stay in Iowa to fool Donald Trump into competing there, not drive to Michigan, where the Democrats models projected a 5-point win through the morning of Election Day.
Michigan organizers were shocked. It was the latest case of Brooklyn ignoring on-the-ground intel and pleas for help in a race that they felt slipping away at the end.
They believed they were more experienced, which they were. They believed they were smarter, which they werent, said Donnie Fowler, who was consulting for the Democratic National Committee during the final months of the campaign. They believed they had better information, which they didnt.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/lancesalyers/2016/12/15/hillary-clintons-loss-in-michigan-and-how-leadership-teams-fail/#9698a6c6728b
jalan48
(14,393 posts)Hopefully the DNC learned something from this.
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)Yurovsky
(2,064 posts)that they saw their path to victory through the Midwest. So why not shore up your support and turnout in the Midwest? Why in the hell was HRC going to Arizona - a state she didn't need and wasn't going to win anyway - 10 days out? Why waste ad dollars in Omaha when they would've been far more useful in Detroit, Flint, Madison, Pittsburgh...
John Podesta and Robby Mook should be tarred and feathered and permanently banned from ANY role in any Democrat's campaign ever... and Hillary should kick each of them in the balls for good measure...
Eleanors38
(18,318 posts)HoneyBadger
(2,297 posts)Hillary was winning and it was not even close. AZ was just a cherry on the sundae, to solidify her mandate.
http://www.npr.org/2016/10/18/498406765/npr-battleground-map-hillary-clinton-is-winning-and-its-not-close
The campaign had celebratory NYC fireworks set up for the moment that NY closed, as the election would have been over by then.
former9thward
(33,424 posts)I don't care what discredited polls say. Hillary was not going for a 270 electoral vote win she was going for a 400 vote win. That is why she campaigned in AZ and GA and elsewhere.
Nedsdag
(2,437 posts)The hubris of this campaign was so obvious.
Let me end this before I go off the rail.
OrwellwasRight
(5,210 posts)when it is "your turn," why shouldn't you have hubris?
Yes, there was extreme cockiness and entitlement amongst her campaign, but the other elements made a difference too (Comey, wikileaks). Funny thing is, if the Comey and wikileaks had not happened, then HRC probably would have/could have won even with the hubris. And it never would have been examined or blamed or learned from. Now we have an opportunity to do so, but too many don't want to talk about the hubris or take the opportunity to do better.
I'll start. Never campaign on the basis that it is "your turn." Never, ever. It comes across as grotesquely entitled. It will turn people off, even in your own party. There is a mistake we can learn from and not repeat.
Dustlawyer
(10,518 posts)when Bernie lost the Primary. Now all I see are these same people lashing out at Bernie and the rest of us for Hillary's loss.
To that I say, shut up and deal with it! If you cannot be objective and pull together to fix our Party's problems and fight the shit stain then just go home and cry to yourself!
OrwellwasRight
(5,210 posts)Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)That may be the biggest lesson this campaign taught us all. Nothing is ever certain and no one is ever simply entitled to a victory.
progree
(11,463 posts)Exit polls: (HRC - Trump percentages, HRC margin)
================================
Pennsylvania: 50.5 - 46.1, +4.4
Wisconsin: 48.2 - 44.3, +3.9
Michigan: 46.8 - 46.8, 0.0
North Carolina: 48.6 - 46.5, +2.1
http://www.inquisitr.com/3742358/2016-electoral-map-results-comparing-exit-polls-with-elections-results-in-light-of-recount2016/
So only Michigan's "actual" vote somewhat matched the exit polls in these 4 states.
Exilednight
(9,359 posts)citood
(550 posts)It made no sense. And I'm not in a media market that overlaps other states. I mistakenly took it as a sign that the campaign was so far ahead it difnt know where to spend its money.
Ken Burch
(50,254 posts)Red states almost NEVER flip. Takes an event like the Depression or the assassination of JFK to flip them.