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Shermann

(8,538 posts)
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 09:00 AM Jan 2024

Social Security: The Best and Worst Years To Be Born

Social Security has a number of quirks related to the way it adjusts for inflation. In a nutshell, your 35-year earnings history is normalized for inflation to your indexing year (the year you turn 60) using the National Average Wage Index. Benefits start at age 62 at the earliest, and from that point forward the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers is used for COLA (a lower percentage on average). From 60 to 62, there is a gap of two years, and no inflation adjustment occurs. Though typically not significant, it can be.

If you were born in 1961, you will miss out on the 5.9% COLA in 2021 and the 8.7% COLA in 2022 for a combined percentage of 15.1%. This is the highest pair of percentages since 1980-1981 and resulted from the inflation bubble. To get that percentage back, you would have to delay your benefits for almost 2 years after your full retirement age of 67.

The best birthyear in the modern era? That would be 1949. Thanks to the Great Recession, COLA was zero in 2009 and 2010, so these fortunate individuals don't effectively have gap years.

Inflation can have a dramatic effect on retirement planning, and this provides a small window into one of its hidden effects.

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Social Security: The Best and Worst Years To Be Born (Original Post) Shermann Jan 2024 OP
Sounds about right, I was born in 1949 and I'm very happy with my Social Security Walleye Jan 2024 #1
1949 for me as well,,, KarenS Jan 2024 #2
Me as well. NoRethugFriends Jan 2024 #6
Me too! LovelyStuff Jan 2024 #13
49er here. mwb970 Jan 2024 #18
Ditto! William Seger Jan 2024 #22
Good grief. What a bunch of old farts. Wink Wink flashman13 Jan 2024 #32
'52 here and I have no complaints. Chainfire Jan 2024 #29
"The best birth year in the modern era? That would be 1949".. me too. My buddy who was born the same year mitch96 Jan 2024 #40
Born in'47. MOMFUDSKI Jan 2024 #3
Interesting. Is there a link? Thanks. enough Jan 2024 #4
There isn't a lot of awareness about this Shermann Jan 2024 #19
IIRC, SS benefits were not taxed until St. Ronnie Raygun went on his mission to destroy the middle class. OMGWTF Jan 2024 #25
He and Greenspan gouged out a big chunk of Social Security Farmer-Rick Jan 2024 #37
That's that basis value that I referred to in post 19 Shermann Jan 2024 #48
Thanks for that explanation Farmer-Rick Jan 2024 #50
You can get indexing information from SSA here... Peer Gynt Jan 2024 #24
Cool, thanks. 2naSalit Jan 2024 #41
Actually, its not the best and worst years to be born... LakeVermilion Jan 2024 #5
Your primary benefits filing age doesn't affect the calculus here Shermann Jan 2024 #12
Born January 1. You've got me curious KPN Jan 2024 #20
I guess we're going there Shermann Jan 2024 #23
Lol. Thanks! Not sure whether that's a benefit or cost. I was curious mostly because in my younger years, KPN Jan 2024 #42
It is sort of a scale from 0 to 15 with zero being the best and 15 being the worst Shermann Jan 2024 #44
So 1960 was a bonanza? wolfie001 Jan 2024 #7
1960/1962 are only half as bad as 1961 Shermann Jan 2024 #10
C'est la vie..... nt wolfie001 Jan 2024 #47
Social Security & Medicare The Butler Jan 2024 #8
Raises hand LittleGirl Jan 2024 #9
Penalty isn't the right word Shermann Jan 2024 #30
That's a good term LittleGirl Jan 2024 #46
I'm waiting until 70. The highest you can get. jimfields33 Jan 2024 #11
For that reason my wife wants me to keep working until 70 Martin Eden Jan 2024 #14
We're one month apart in age Auggie Jan 2024 #21
Good luck to you as well, fellow Boomer! Martin Eden Jan 2024 #36
I totally get that. Enjoy. jimfields33 Jan 2024 #53
The retirement simulators tend to support your strategy Shermann Jan 2024 #15
Most people don't realize how long they actually will live. PoindexterOglethorpe Jan 2024 #58
Yes and every year you live extends your life expectancy Shermann Jan 2024 #60
It depends on what year you are looking at. PoindexterOglethorpe Jan 2024 #62
Right and if and when you make it to 76, it extends to 12.29 years instead of 11.97 Shermann Jan 2024 #63
There was also a phase in period Joe Nation Jan 2024 #16
Joe I'm the same age and plan to do the same thing. Good luck to you chicoescuela Jan 2024 #27
My wife was born in 1961 Joe Nation Jan 2024 #35
I was born in 1948, PoindexterOglethorpe Jan 2024 #17
My situation is almost exactly the same as yours. llmart Jan 2024 #28
Good for you. PoindexterOglethorpe Jan 2024 #59
I was born in 1952 DFW Jan 2024 #26
I, too, was born in '52. My social security was reduced by the amount I receive from Japan for the national pension Martin68 Jan 2024 #33
I'll bet!! DFW Jan 2024 #39
I was born in 1950 calguy Jan 2024 #31
High on the hog? LOL! Martin68 Jan 2024 #34
Uh oh, I was born in 1961.... FM123 Jan 2024 #38
On a sorta kinda positive note, you can't really lose money that you never had! nt Shermann Jan 2024 #45
You're right about that! FM123 Jan 2024 #49
Wait... Think. Again. Jan 2024 #54
For the last 49 years, it has come out of mine, anyway! DFW Jan 2024 #57
The Social Security benefits formula is what it is Shermann Jan 2024 #61
Happy 75th birthday to 49'ers. usonian Jan 2024 #43
Recently retired and started my SS Beachnutt Jan 2024 #51
είναι ελληνικό για μένα Goonch Jan 2024 #52
I'm glad that so many are playing the numbers game w/ their SS benefits, it's a good thing to know what one is SWBTATTReg Jan 2024 #55
Great point! Joe Nation Jan 2024 #56

mitch96

(14,583 posts)
40. "The best birth year in the modern era? That would be 1949".. me too. My buddy who was born the same year
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 12:34 PM
Jan 2024

did a lot of "cash business" gets less than half of what I get..
m

Shermann

(8,538 posts)
19. There isn't a lot of awareness about this
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 11:17 AM
Jan 2024

I've been building my own retirement simulation models for years and have picked up on a number of interesting things. I ran these numbers myself, so I guess it is a DU original story. I'd welcome a peer review of it.

The inflation gap is odd and unfair, but it normally affects everybody the same way when inflation hums along at the same rate. Now we have two blips in the modern era, one high and one low. So, directly comparing these two outliers is revealing.

On paper it is an easy fix, just start COLA at age 60 and retroactively bump everybody's benefit. While that would be a boon for retirees, how many billions would that cost?

Taxes on SS are similarly flawed, there are fixed basis values which are never adjusted for inflation. So more and more of retirees' benefits are subject to taxes every year. Again, how many billions would a fix cost the government?

OMGWTF

(4,390 posts)
25. IIRC, SS benefits were not taxed until St. Ronnie Raygun went on his mission to destroy the middle class.
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 11:50 AM
Jan 2024

Farmer-Rick

(11,210 posts)
37. He and Greenspan gouged out a big chunk of Social Security
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 12:13 PM
Jan 2024

That really hurts seniors today.

You can't live on Social Security because if you get more than $25,000, taxes start getting bigger and bigger. As your SocSec goes up, the amount of taxes they take away from you goes up. Unless you are filthy-rich and then get expensive accountants to hide their income.

Shermann

(8,538 posts)
48. That's that basis value that I referred to in post 19
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 02:31 PM
Jan 2024

It's dubious that it doesn't adjust for inflation. For retirement planning purposes, it creates a moving target. One tool used to stay below that is Roth accounts. But if there is a lot of inflation between now and your retirement date, it might be futile. So, unless ALL of your retirement funds are in Roth accounts, you might be sort of hosed. $25K doesn't go very far these days.

Peer Gynt

(7 posts)
24. You can get indexing information from SSA here...
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 11:47 AM
Jan 2024

… by entering different retirement eligibility years, you can see what the indexing factors will be for each year after birth (only some of which will be years with wages, of course). What’s crucial are the 35 years of highest wages.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/awifactors.html

LakeVermilion

(1,170 posts)
5. Actually, its not the best and worst years to be born...
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 10:02 AM
Jan 2024

It's the best year and the worst year to retire.

I was born in 1947, but didn't retire until 2010. So I get to share in the windfall with the 49ers.

Just an observation.

Shermann

(8,538 posts)
12. Your primary benefits filing age doesn't affect the calculus here
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 10:50 AM
Jan 2024

This gap phenomenon is determined by your indexing year which is determined strictly by your birthyear (with an odd corner case if you were born on January 1. We won't talk about that here.)

Shermann

(8,538 posts)
23. I guess we're going there
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 11:34 AM
Jan 2024


Social Security follows English common law that finds that a person attains an age on the day before the birthday. So, your indexing year is the year you actually turn 59.

https://secure.ssa.gov/poms.nsf/lnx/0300615015

KPN

(16,051 posts)
42. Lol. Thanks! Not sure whether that's a benefit or cost. I was curious mostly because in my younger years,
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 01:00 PM
Jan 2024

having that birthday sure seemed like a cost to me. Best examples:

on my 16th birthday, the age for being eligible to get a learners permit to drive in MA was raised from 16 to 17 (my best friend's birthday was Dec. 29th -- he could drive, I couldn't for another year);

the year I turned 21, the legal drinking age was lowered from 21 to 18 MA effective on my birthday -- pissed me off; the very first day I could legally have a beer in a bar, thousands of 18, 19 and 20 year olds could too! (MA corrected that error within a decade and moved the age back up to 21 -- it was originally lowered to 18 for the same reason voting age was lowered to 18 -- because 18 year olds had and were going to Vietnam to fight and die for their country.

Shermann

(8,538 posts)
44. It is sort of a scale from 0 to 15 with zero being the best and 15 being the worst
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 01:21 PM
Jan 2024

Most two-year gaps have been around a 5 in the last two decades. The government hands two years of inflation back to beneficiaries to eat. Everybody gets a helping, but of varying size. There's at least one 15 on the menu now, in addition to one 0.

Shermann

(8,538 posts)
10. 1960/1962 are only half as bad as 1961
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 10:44 AM
Jan 2024

Likewise, 1948/1950 are only half as good as 1949 (loosely speaking).

The Butler

(33 posts)
8. Social Security & Medicare
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 10:36 AM
Jan 2024

I remember my dad mentioning that he got dinged by Social Security because he was born in 1919. He was a "Notch Baby". I was born in the year that Germany and Japan surrendered. I must have frightened them.

LittleGirl

(8,380 posts)
9. Raises hand
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 10:42 AM
Jan 2024

If I wait until I’m 66, 10 months, I get most of my SS. I was born in 59 but they still shafted me. I’m unable to find work but I will wait another 2 years before I get over the penalty of collecting at 65. Hubby is supporting me. Ugh.

Shermann

(8,538 posts)
30. Penalty isn't the right word
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 11:59 AM
Jan 2024

Benefits are designed with fairness in mind no matter what filing age you choose. Penalties have teeth to them to discourage you from doing something, which isn't the case here. The correct term is "reduction factor".

LittleGirl

(8,380 posts)
46. That's a good term
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 01:46 PM
Jan 2024

reduction factor. It was supposed to be for everyone born after 1960 but since I was born in '59, they included me in the curse.

jimfields33

(18,433 posts)
11. I'm waiting until 70. The highest you can get.
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 10:46 AM
Jan 2024

I still have a little over 15 years to wait but I want the larger check. Yes controversial but what’s new. lol.

Martin Eden

(13,392 posts)
14. For that reason my wife wants me to keep working until 70
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 10:57 AM
Jan 2024

Born in Sep 1957, I'll reach my retirement age of 66.5 years in less than two months. My stated intent to retire at that time didn't go over too well, so I compromised and decided to work through the end of this year.

It's not all about money. I love to go hiking & backpacking, but can't find the time to do that nearly as often as I'd like. I want to enjoy my recreational passions (including slowpitch softball tournaments) as much as I can while I am still able.

My job is not physically demanding, but working long hours in a salaried postion has not been good for my physical condition. I'll get much more exercise and fresh air when I'm no longer shackled to a desk.

Auggie

(31,764 posts)
21. We're one month apart in age
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 11:29 AM
Jan 2024


I'm trying to hold out until 70 before filing for SS, figuring that the cost of everything is only going to escalate. Why not retire with the maximum you can? And so what if I die before I come out ahead. I'd rather have too much money and not need it than need it and not have it. Health care, skilled nursing, and long-term hospice/hospitalization can be substandard if you have to count pennies.

Good luck moving forward!

Martin Eden

(13,392 posts)
36. Good luck to you as well, fellow Boomer!
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 12:12 PM
Jan 2024

The best retirement decision isn't the same for everyone. As age and arthritis begin to limit my abilities I don't want to reduce the years I have to enjoy my physical activities even if I live well beyond them.

Shermann

(8,538 posts)
15. The retirement simulators tend to support your strategy
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 11:00 AM
Jan 2024

The SS benefits formula is designed to be a wash regardless of your primary benefits filing age, based on the actuarial tables. If you beat the odds and outlive everybody, you generally come out ahead delaying filing. The risk there is in burning through too much retirement savings trying to hold out for age 70.

Some feel there is also risk in delaying benefits due to the threat of SS insolvency, and you should get what you can get while you can. I believe there is a lot of gaslighting in the MSM on this issue, so the real risk there is difficult to ascertain.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(26,544 posts)
58. Most people don't realize how long they actually will live.
Mon Jan 29, 2024, 11:09 AM
Jan 2024

They look at life expectancy at birth and conclude that's how long they'll live. Right now the average American lives to age 88.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(26,544 posts)
62. It depends on what year you are looking at.
Mon Jan 29, 2024, 10:36 PM
Jan 2024

I'm a 75 year old woman. A quick on-line search (I googled "how much longer will a 75 year old woman live" and came up with a chart that says 12.97 more years. So, it actually is a whole lot more than one full year.

This might help: https://www.annuityadvantage.com/resources/life-expectancy-tables/

Shermann

(8,538 posts)
63. Right and if and when you make it to 76, it extends to 12.29 years instead of 11.97
Tue Jan 30, 2024, 05:02 PM
Jan 2024

So, you'd have picked up an extra .68 years, that was my meaning. It's always greater than zero but less than 1.

Joe Nation

(1,001 posts)
16. There was also a phase in period
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 11:01 AM
Jan 2024

when the retirement age went from 65 to 67. For instance, I was born in '58 and I can retire with full benefits at 66 and 8 months. I may just wait until I am 70 to collect because it increases a lot over that 3 years and 4 months.

Joe Nation

(1,001 posts)
35. My wife was born in 1961
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 12:06 PM
Jan 2024

Ouch! However, she was in a state plan that took the SSI contribution and added it to her state pension instead of contributing to the federal system. In other words, she won't collect SSI anyway, maybe $30 if at all. I think we played our retirement just right. It's hard to know when you are young which type of savings you should invest in. It's just a roll of the dice.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(26,544 posts)
17. I was born in 1948,
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 11:05 AM
Jan 2024

and did not start collecting my own SS until age 70. I was a stay at home mom for 25 years so I wound up with working and paying in 29 years.

I was able to collect on my ex's at age 65 (getting 50% of what his amount would be at his full retirement age), then switch over to my own at age 70. If he dies before me I become one of his two widows, and will then get 50% of his SS. He waited until age 70 himself to start collecting, so while I don't know how much his payment actually is, I can guess.

It seems to me that working even retail or fast food for a while so as to delay collecting SS as long as possible might be a good idea. For one thing, since the increases when they occur, are a percentage, it's an even bigger increase, the higher your check is.

llmart

(16,310 posts)
28. My situation is almost exactly the same as yours.
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 11:58 AM
Jan 2024

I was born in 1949. I got 50% of my ex's Soc. Sec. I actually do know what my ex gets per month. He was a high wage earner and worked until he was 70. I have the added bonus of getting 50% of his retirement benefit since he had a defined benefit plan and I was awarded spousal support for the rest of his life. When he stopped working he thought the spousal support would end, but they take my spousal support out of his Social Security check.

PoindexterOglethorpe

(26,544 posts)
59. Good for you.
Mon Jan 29, 2024, 11:13 AM
Jan 2024

My spousal support ended after about six years. And because I was out of the workforce so long, I was very limited in what sort of job I could get. He's five years younger than I am, and much of his family lives well into their 90s. Oh, well.

DFW

(56,367 posts)
26. I was born in 1952
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 11:51 AM
Jan 2024

I applied for Social Security payments when I turned 70. I had started working at age 23, and have been with the same employer since then. It took well over a year to get all the paperwork done, going through about seven different SS offices, from D.C. to Albuquerque to Baltimore, etc. finally ending up with the FBU office in the US Embassy in Warsaw, Poland (!!), and they were the ones who ended up being the ones to actually complete the process.

My SS monthly payments are supposedly about $4100, which, after paying German taxes on 85% of it, leaves a net of about $2350, or about $28200 a year, before the SS tax of about $9900 a year being taken out of my U.S. paycheck, leaving me with about a net of $18,300 per year from the whole SS system. It's better than nothing, so I'm not complaining, but when some think that getting a gross payout of $48,000 a year means having a nice wad of cash, if you're still working and living in a high tax country like Germany, it's more like a nice chunk of extra pocket money.

Martin68

(24,419 posts)
33. I, too, was born in '52. My social security was reduced by the amount I receive from Japan for the national pension
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 12:02 PM
Jan 2024

I qualified for during my 21 years working there. That was a disappointment...

DFW

(56,367 posts)
39. I'll bet!!
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 12:19 PM
Jan 2024

My employer is the same US employer I have always had (a few incarnations) since 1975, so that has not been an issue with me, but on the other hand, where I am paying 50% in German taxes, plus another chunk to the IRS due to participation in S-Corps of the outfit I work for, I am assessed at about 73% income tax (I am fighting a 12 year war with the Germans about their disregarding the Double Taxation Treaty with the USA), so for all the taxes the Germans take from me, I get no pension and no health insurance, and no anything else. As they say in Brooklyn, such a deal! In Spain, they say, "de invierno a invierno, todo el dinero para el gobierno." That applies not only to Spain, needless to say!

FM123

(10,111 posts)
38. Uh oh, I was born in 1961....
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 12:15 PM
Jan 2024

Not exactly the news I wanted to hear, but I always appreciate learning what I need to know - thanks Shermann.

Think. Again.

(17,206 posts)
54. Wait...
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 06:19 PM
Jan 2024

...when you say "you can't lose money you never had", are you saying that the money we paid into SS all those years, and the interest it has accrued, was never ours?

SS tax does come out of our earned wages, correct?

DFW

(56,367 posts)
57. For the last 49 years, it has come out of mine, anyway!
Mon Jan 29, 2024, 05:19 AM
Jan 2024

And in the form of an equal amount in SS taxes from my employer as well, of course.

Shermann

(8,538 posts)
61. The Social Security benefits formula is what it is
Mon Jan 29, 2024, 04:16 PM
Jan 2024

My point is that is hasn't changed much over time, and it is all sort of set in concrete. If you are on the losing side of something, you always were. It's not like you had something yesterday that was taken away today.

Maybe I should have said "you can't lose a benefit you never had".

Beachnutt

(8,027 posts)
51. Recently retired and started my SS
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 05:47 PM
Jan 2024

in October, 1961 here and I guess I took a hit but I'm happy with what I get along with my Teamster pension.

SWBTATTReg

(23,991 posts)
55. I'm glad that so many are playing the numbers game w/ their SS benefits, it's a good thing to know what one is
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 07:01 PM
Jan 2024

going to receive. One serious point, is your health too, in determining whether or not to retire. If your health is not in a good way, consider this too. Otherwise, as some of my friends found out the hard way (they passed away, and received nothing).

I know that a lot of us don't consider perhaps too much on the dying part, but it does need to be considered too, as to a decision on getting the SS benefits.

To all of those looking forward to retirement, good luck and best wishes. The best part of your life is coming, so enjoy it, you earned it.

Joe Nation

(1,001 posts)
56. Great point!
Sun Jan 28, 2024, 10:08 PM
Jan 2024

Health is the unknown variable at retirement. It definitely can drag you down financially regardless of your SS haul.

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