The next opportunity to defeat the pro-gun Senators comes in 2014, but the political terrain in 2014 will be a challenging one. All fourteen of the Senators who voted no to the background checks and are running for re-election in 2014, represent red states that Mitt Romney carried in 2012. This includes eleven Republicans and three Democrats. Two more Republicans, Georgia’s Saxby Chambliss and Nebraska’s Mike Johanns, also voted against the background checks but they are not running for re-election. Their open seats however could be opportunities for gun violence opponents to field a winning candidate. Compounding the gun control advocates’ difficulties, Senators Tim Johnson (D-SD) and Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) who both voted for the background checks bill are not running for re-election, and each will be at high risk of being replaced by a candidate who is strongly for gun rights. In order to achieve a filibuster proof majority in favor of background checks, the gun violence opponents would need to pick up a net five seats. This will not be an easy task, but the best path forward appears to be something like the following scenario:

Support the Senators who voted yes on background checks. The Democratic Senators who face re-election and voted for background checks were Udall (CO), Coons (DE), Schatz (HI), Durbin (IL), Landrieu (LA), Franken (MN), Shaheen (NH), Udall (NM), Hagen (NC), Merkley (OR), Reed (RI) and Warner (VA). The Republican Senator who faces re-election and voted for background checks was Collins (ME).

Strategically these Senators are supported for re-election or at least if they are replaced it is only by someone who also favors background checks as well. In this respect, the strategy would not object to Collins (ME) being defeated by a liberal Democrat like Chellie Pingree, or Schatz (HI) being defeated by Colleen Hannabusa in a Democratic primary, since the replacement would also be very likely to support background checks. This strategy would also suggest providing resources as needed to protect endangered Democrats in red states like Landrieu and Hagan to prevent those seats from flipping to an almost certain opponent of background checks.

Maintain anti-gun violence Senators in open seats represented by current Senators who favored background checks. Six vacancies will be opening in seats held by Senators who voted for background checks. Democrats Harkin (IA), Cowan (MA), Levin (MI), Lautenburg (NJ), Johnson (SD) and Rockefeller (WV) are not running for re-election. It is imperative that these seats stay in the hands of Senators who would support background checks. Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan and New Jersey should stay in Democratic hands with reasonable candidates who will follow through on supporting background checks.