Democratic Primaries
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Bernie Sanders Hit His Ceiling
sanders has a ceiling of support which means that he will trouble winning the nomination https://politicalwire.com/2020/03/04/bernie-sanders-hit-his-ceiling/
Sanders reached 33% or more of the vote in just five of the 14 states that voted (including his home state of Vermont) and did not exceed 36%, his share in Colorado. Biden had a higher ceiling: He won at least 39% in seven states and roughly a third of the vote in three others.
Said pollster Stan Greenberg: Sanders has made no effort to reach out beyond his voters, his movement, his revolution. It just has not grown. It is an utterly stable vote that is grounded in the very liberal portion of the Democratic Party, but hes so disdainful of any outreach beyond that base. He seems content to just keep hitting that drum.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Gothmog
(159,344 posts)Link to tweet
We saw that in Sanders refusal to broaden his message to bring in more people. When I said exactly that on Meet the Press, that the problem with Bernie Sanders is that he has the exact same message he had four years ago when he lost to Hillary Clinton 60-40, the response from the Sanders campaign was, well, this:
Link to tweet
If your message wasnt a majority message four years ago, and you want to win, wouldnt you tweak it? They didnt. Proudly and explicitly did not tweak it. They had zero intention of growing new support by broadening and expanding their message. (Sanders famously refused to even inject more biography into his stump speech to humanize him more.)
Sanders and his campaign saw that their ceiling was 30%, and they built an entire strategy around winning with 30%. That means that instead of seeing the other 70% of voters as allies, they saw them as THE ENEMY. Even when there was ideological alignment.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(308,084 posts)Thanks Goth

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Blue American
(18,412 posts)
MSNBC has been going over and over that Warren needs o drop out and support Bernie!
I do not see the reasoning behind that. She has the right to stay in as long as she wishes and the right to back the one she choose.
Axios and others act like they own the election.
Clyburn was offended with them calling Blacks The Establishment!

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(308,084 posts)from pundit land.
Why should EW support Sanders?
It's backfired calling POC "the establishment".
Link to tweet

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Blue American
(18,412 posts)People I know are very well educated and their teenagers are so polite, not to mention working hard on their own educations.
I admire Elizabeth Warren. You can bet we have not heard the last of that Lady! She will be at the top for any job she wants!
Isnt it wonderful to have so many talented people on our side to choose from?

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(308,084 posts)brilliant dedicated patriots for Democracy!

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LakeArenal
(29,941 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(308,084 posts)the exact opposite what's happening .. on Everything.
LA

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
The Velveteen Ocelot
(123,400 posts)but just keeps hammering away at the supporters he already has.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)There was no magical voter revolution
Link to tweet
And in particular, his decisive win over Sanders in the primary without even campaigning in many states further highlights the limitations of progressive politics in America, at least in winning a national campaign.
Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist, made a bad bet on the existence of a national progressive majority (as did Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who ran as a progressive populist but dropped out after Super Tuesday). It turns out there's nothing even close.
In fact, its not even clear that a progressive majority exists within the Democratic Party. What does exist is a moderately center-left party with a vocal progressive element.
Sanders frequently said on the campaign trail that he was leading a multigenerational, multiracial movement, pledging to mobilize an army of new, young voters. But it turns out older and moderate voters are the ones that grew as a share of the Democratic primary electorate since 2016 and they favored Biden by a wide margin.
Take the South Carolina primary on Feb. 29, which Biden won, or the 10 of 14 states he captured on Super Tuesday: In all, he appealed to the same coalitions that boosted Democrats so strongly in the 2018 midterm elections, turning out large numbers of suburban voters, while maintaining support from longstanding elements of the Democratic coalition, particularly African American voters.....
Still, with the 2020 Democratic primary process essentially over, its clear that the hard-core Democratic left was deluded in their assertions that they were the new Democratic majority. They are going to need a better grip on reality if they are to be successful at the national level moving forward

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
William769
(56,914 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
rusty quoin
(6,133 posts)He has reached out to everyone, but if you are not willing to hear it, its up to you.
I hope you guys know what you are doing...I really do. So if Biden will do it, then I will back him. I hope you know what you are doing, because I have not known what Im doing for years.

primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
True Blue American
(18,412 posts)Last edited Thu Mar 5, 2020, 03:23 PM - Edit history (1)
After Warren. How do you feel about them calling her a snake? I admire Warren, have from the time she created her agency. She is a fighter for the people!

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)are the liberal Democrats he despises, that we're like Republicans and do the same bad things is like reaching out with a sharp stick. We all know that's bizarrely untrue and of course back away instead of embracing the stick.
As for Sanders' consistency, there's not just four years of it, there's 40. He's a true believer in Democrats' moral bankruptcy and unsuitability for power and, of course, a true believer in himself and our desperate need for his leadership.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
subana
(586 posts)I heard people say that Bernie was never going to be competitive in some states because of their higher black populations. Considering this, he would have needed an even higher average to make up for the losses in these other states.
Sanders has made no effort to reach out beyond his voters, his movement, his revolution. It just has not grown. It is an utterly stable vote that is grounded in the very liberal portion of the Democratic Party, but hes so disdainful of any outreach beyond that base. He seems content to just keep hitting that drum.
This is another way he is similar to Trump. Trump has not tried to grow his base either since he was elected. What kind of politician is satisfied with a 30-ish% of support without having tried to increase that support in 4 years?

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
gademocrat7
(11,336 posts)Same agenda four years later.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SidDithers
(44,313 posts)Bernie was only able to get 51% in the VT primary.
He needs to win some states by 50% if hes going to cut into Bidens delegate lead.
Sid

primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)Link to tweet
The lack of enthusiasm among younger voters was especially pronounced with turnout up 33 percent from 2016 among every group across Super Tuesday states.
For example, in North Carolina, overall turnout was up 17 percent youth turnout was down 9 percent, John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Institute of politics told Power Up. There's not evidence to suggest that Sanders has expanded the electorate among young people in important ways. ....
Della Volpe said data doesn't necessarily support the idea that all young voters want the kind of sweeping policy changes candidates like Sanders are calling for.
Problematic for Sanders?: When looking at young Democratic primary voters, bold structural change is preferred, but not by as much as you might think, Della Volpe told us at the time after an IOP study released in November

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
squirecam
(2,706 posts)We need to rely upon our base, AA voters, in states where they have large populations, and moderate white suburban women, which is how we won in 2018.
Bernie has problems appealing to both groups.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Dem2
(8,178 posts)...but my millennial daughter was 'meh' on Bernie this cycle. Seems we both had reached a saturation point with his message and followers.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)New Deal era that the electorate ended in 1980 know that our systems work really well with proper, even adequate, leadership. We had it really good compared to young people now.
Liberal majorities then had put leashes on those too wealthy and powerful for the good of most and created a spreading-wide prosperity that was growing the middle class and shrinking poverty. Living wages with good benefits were normal, public colleges were affordable, and there were great opportunities for social mobility for those who wanted more, including to lesser degrees for minorities and women. That was the civil rights and second wave era.
Now, it's horribly different after the 40 years of devastating conservative domination of government that began in 1978-80.
So of course too many young adults who haven't experienced the wellbeing liberal government creates don't know what those who did do: that our current mess isn't due to structural or liberal ideological failure, as they're being told. The previous great advances occurred because of liberal domination of government. The disaster that's followed occurred because of conservative domination that is inimical to not just liberalism and progressivism, but to the very concept of economic and social equality. Strong conservatives believe in hierarchical societies where both wealth and poverty are natural and appropriate.
Sanders can't draw more older voters because we have the advantage of knowing what went wrong and that our systems are proven to work well when properly managed. And we know the answer is to begin a new era of liberal, progressive domination of what our parents bequeathed us, not begin yet another experiment in the socialism that has always failed disastrously in other nations.
Young people now facing lives of debt and doing without need to know that by putting liberals in charge they and we can turn that completely around for them within a decade of proper management. We know how. A great advantage, in spite of massive maldistribution of wealth, is that our nation is also actually far, far, FAR wealthier now than back then due to great advances in production. Thinking and experience, understanding of economics, have also all advanced since, and we can and actually must make it work much better still in future.
Btw, the Obama administration, as hamstrung by a congress determined to block all advances as it was, used its very limited power to begin the huge wealth redistribution that must be done. In 2016 we were all ready to leap forward on many tracks to restore opportunities for all to share in our nation's wellbeing. That's been delayed to 2020 now, but the plans readied to hit the ground running have only been updated.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Blue American
(18,412 posts)For posting what I have watched all during my adult life!
Every word is so true. And I think our young are smart enough to know the truth.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Midnightwalk
(3,131 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Happy Hoosier
(8,788 posts)Sanders has a strong core, but his style tends to alienate people outside his core. It's hard to build a winning coalition like that.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)This has GOT to be so humiliating for him. Did you see the numbers coming out of Florida?

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
zackymilly
(2,375 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)Where is sanders' magical voter revolution? How will sanders get his agenda adoptied without this magical voter revolution
Link to tweet
So he has alienated moderates in his own party (including African Americans, whose massive support for former vice president Joe Biden he ignores, preferring to attribute Bidens success to corporate Democrats), and has an even worse shot attracting and is off-putting to the sort of suburban women who helped deliver the House majority to Democrats in 2018. But dont worry, young people will make up for all that! Democrats are supposed to take on faith that the people Sanders needs to make up for those he has given up on and those who have not yet appeared will save the party in November.
Democrats need not accept this preposterous bet, and on Super Tuesday did not. It surely makes more sense to bet on the voters who actually did show up in droves just as they did in 2018. (Consider what happened in Texas: With unwavering support from black voters in the cities and a surge in the suburbs, Mr. Biden notched his most significant win of the primary calendar here netting him a large and unexpected share of Texass 228 pledged delegates.
The Sanders strategy if you vote for me, they will come is so ludicrous that Sanders is not trying to smooth over the rough edges he has spent a lifetime.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)dependent on rallying his passionate followers, in virtual and actual arenas, as Trump's. They've both swallowed the Kool-Aid effect of their own cheering crowds and don't see why everyone won't share it if exposed.
The conviction that the effects of growing cheering crowds could sweep millions more mindlessly along, causing abandonment of intellectual beliefs and moral objections, is ludicrous all right. Does this man even understand how wrong it would be for support to happen that way?
This article was from yesterday morning. The timing of the suggestion that the Sanders left needs to back a far more competent candidate is rather poignant and sad.
"Why not let Warren take a turn at the wheel?"

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Scurrilous
(38,687 posts)

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NCProgressive
(1,315 posts)and may switch
The hard-core Bernie only vote is at most 20%

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Awsi Dooger
(14,565 posts)You might as well claim you'll win a gold medal in the pole vault via great landing technique.
Bernie would be in great shape if the nation were 35% liberals and 26% conservatives. Instead it is the other way around, which is why Trump can get elected under certain conditions while Bernie can't get out of the primary.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)Link to tweet
We saw that in Sanders refusal to broaden his message to bring in more people. When I said exactly that on Meet the Press, that the problem with Bernie Sanders is that he has the exact same message he had four years ago when he lost to Hillary Clinton 60-40, the response from the Sanders campaign was, well, this:
Link to tweet
If your message wasnt a majority message four years ago, and you want to win, wouldnt you tweak it? They didnt. Proudly and explicitly did not tweak it. They had zero intention of growing new support by broadening and expanding their message. (Sanders famously refused to even inject more biography into his stump speech to humanize him more.)
Sanders and his campaign saw that their ceiling was 30%, and they built an entire strategy around winning with 30%. That means that instead of seeing the other 70% of voters as allies, they saw them as THE ENEMY. Even when there was ideological alignment.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BidenBacker
(1,089 posts)That's plenty good enough for another book deal so he can pocket a few more million.
Then rest up for a coupla years and get ready to primary Biden in 2024 just like he wanted to do against Obama in 2012.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
showblue22
(1,026 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
aikoaiko
(34,209 posts)Still I hope he stays until after the last primary.

primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
aikoaiko
(34,209 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Happy Hoosier
(8,788 posts)He is running the same campaign that lost the nomination in 2016. He seems to think that the magical youth turnout fairy is bound to show up eventually!

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NYMinute
(3,256 posts)He is using the same tired slogans and platitudes that are not resonating with anyone despite his twitter army working overtime to bring down any opposition.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)sanders' cap is near 30% https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/5/1924709/-Bernie-s-grievance-politics-consolidated-the-left-to-a-30-losing-minority
Link to tweet
ve wracked my brain wondering why so many on the progressive left, in this day and age of #MeToo and #BlackLivesMatter, would align with an old white guy when there were clear alternatives (unlike in 2016), and this makes as much sense as anything. One commenter on my last piece, on why Bernie Sanders fizzled upon contact with actual voters, wrote that, for Bernie to do some of the work kos is asking, he would have to change his message in a way a dependably left politician will never do.
Interestingwhat made Sanders a dependably left politician, but Warren not? Clearly, it wasnt actual policy or ideology. Krugmans grievance is as good as an explanation as any.
Remember, the Sanders campaign decided early on that his path to the nomination consisted of keeping his core 30% base intact, and nothing more: As The Atlantic noted, And then, Sanders aides believe, hell easily win enough delegates to put him into contention at the convention. They say they dont need him to get more than 30 percent to make that happen.
That was important, as weve discussed, because it set the tone for the entirety of their campaignfrom othering the supporters of other candidates as neoliberal corporatist shills (and worse) to sticking with a message that had failed Sanders already in 2016, when only two candidates had been in the race.
And its shocking how close to 30% his results have been:
Sanders share of the vote
Iowa 26.5%
New Hampshire 25.6%
Nevada 40.5%
South Carolina 19.8%
Alabama 16.5%
Arkansas 22.4%
California 33.8%
Colorado 36.1%
Maine 32.9%
Massachusetts 26.7%
Minnesota 29.9%
North Carolina 24.1%
Oklahoma 25.4%
Tennessee 25%
Texas 30%
Utah 34.6%
Vermont 50.8%
Virginia 23.1%
Take a guess what his overall percentage is so far.
28.9%

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)Last edited Wed Mar 11, 2020, 06:28 PM - Edit history (1)
I have never taken sanders seriously as a candidate due to sanders complete and utter lack of legislative accomplishments. sanders has not been able to get his fellow Democratic members of Congress to back his agenda and that is not going to change. As I understand it, sanders is now relying on a magical voter revolution to convince republicans to be reasonable. sanders has no magical voter revolution or movement backing him up. sanders has a cap of around 30% of the Democratic voters and that does not constitute a movement or revolution
Link to tweet
With this faulty premise, the medias coverage has been at times wildly off-kilter. It was easy for anyone caring to look closely to see that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) did not win a single debate, because his ranting and raving merely reinforced the fervor of his own cult while turning off the rest of the party. The media have been obsessed with the likability of female candidates, never considering that Sanderss angry and rude demeanor would turn off women, who make up more than half of the Democratic electorate. A simple question Who is he gaining by all this yelling? should have been front and center in the medias coverage. His movement was assumed but never examined carefully.....
Sanderss ceiling turned out to be real, because there are generally less than a third of voters in the Democratic Party willing to embrace wide-eyed socialism, venom-filled rhetoric and utter disregard for the demands of governing (e.g. compromise). Michael Moore does not speak for the Democratic Party any more than Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) speaks for House Democrats. (I have long maintained that the person who has the best read on the party as a whole is House Speaker Nancy Pelosi; get to her left, and you are in no-mans land.)
The Democratic Party does not live on social media nor does it favor bomb-throwers. If anything, it is desperate to play it safe and find an antidote to President Trump not an imitation. Voters want the madness, the cruelty, the dysfunction and the stupidity to stop. They have found their safe, reliable and decent candidate in Biden. En masse in every geographic region and Democratic group they are telling us that they want the primary to end and the effort to rout Trump to begin. The media might have taken Sanderss revolution seriously, but it turns out that Democratic voters as a whole did not.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)To Senator Bernie Sanders, there is plenty of blame to go around when it comes to his recent reversal of fortune. For everyone but him and his campaign. ... And the young voters he counted on to power his campaign didnt come through for him. ...
So when Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the race and endorsed Mr. Biden, to the Sanders camp it wasnt because theyd won next to no support from black voters and run out of money, it was part of an establishment plot. And Senators Cory Booker and Kamala Harris were simply joining the effort to block Mr. Sanders when they backed Mr. Biden this week. ...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/politics/bernie-sanders-michigan-2020.html
Well, at least he has his little niche market for grievance and victimization syndrome. I never developed a taste, much less became addicted and in thrall to the current purveyor.

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(308,084 posts)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)sanders was appealing only to 30% of the party and after South Carolina the rest of the party moved to Joe Biden to stop sanders.
Link to tweet
But beyond ideology, race and turnout, a chief reason for Mr. Bidens success has little to do with his candidacy. He became a vehicle for Democrats like Ms. King who were supporting other candidates but found the prospect of Mr. Sanders and his calls for political revolution so distasteful that they put aside misgivings about Mr. Biden and backed him instead.
In phone interviews, dozens of Democrats, mostly aged 50 and over, who live in key March primary states like Massachusetts, Virginia, Michigan and Florida, said that Mr. Bidens appeal went beyond his case for beating President Trump. It was his chances of overtaking Mr. Sanders, the only candidate in the vast Democratic field they found objectionable for reasons personal and political.....
These voters willingness to unite against Mr. Sanders helped Democratic Party leaders stave off his insurgent campaign and has made Mr. Biden the all-but-certain Democratic nominee. The convergence behind Mr. Biden also highlights a critical difference between this years primary and what happened to the Republican Party in 2016. Four years ago, establishment Republicans were openly skeptical of Mr. Trump after his victories in early primary states, but a fractured field and split primary vote allowed him to amass an insurmountable delegate lead, reshaping the party in the process.....
Ahead of Mr. Sanderss presidential run in 2020, his campaign did not concern itself with smoothing tensions among voters who supported Mrs. Clinton in 2016. He did not seek the endorsements of many party leaders, who were always unlikely to back him, but could have been swayed from being openly antagonistic to ambivalent.
As a result, after a strong finish in Iowa and wins in New Hampshire and Nevada, Mr. Sanders did not benefit from an assumed truth of presidential campaigns: that early-state victories help bring in voters from other factions. Instead, people like Lori Boerner of McLean, Va., said Mr. Sanderss performance sent them searching for a candidate who could stop his rise, and after the South Carolina primary, they landed on Mr. Biden.
The vast bulk of the party does not like sanders which is why Joe Biden is going to the nominee

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Gothmog
(159,344 posts)Link to tweet
The Bernie changed the party line suggests that the party did not overwhelmingly choose a center-left successor to President Barack Obama. But it did! And it has rallied around someone who rejected Medicare-for-all, a wealth tax, left-wing isolationism and the entire capitalism is evil stance. Sanders got beaten badly week after week, never changing his message. That message simply did not register with more than about 30 percent of the party. Twitter does not represent the party. The party did not shift far left, as many in the media predicted (egged on by the loudest voices on the left). If anything, Bidens wins show that the heart of the party rests with moderate African Americans to whom all Americans are indebted for lifting a viable, electable nominee to oust President Trump. Sanderss movement is far smaller than he would have liked us to believe.
As for winning over his followers, consider a recent poll showing that about 15 percent of Sanderss supporters intend to vote for Trump if Biden is the nominee. It is hard to fathom the mindset of someone who would prefer an unfit narcissist who opposes virtually every principle and value Democrats hold dear to Obamas vice president. It is of a piece with those who preferred Jill Stein in 2016. There is no reaching such people. Soliciting them is a waste of time.
The rest of the Sanders coalition should not need much courting. Theyve already signaled they will line up behind Biden and have expressed their determination to oust Trump. Other than not gratuitously attacking them, no great effort should be required to keep them in the fold. (Ironically, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) has been far more successful in advancing progressive policy ideas with Biden, including her plans on student debt forgiveness and bankruptcy.)

primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden