Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumIt's all about the delegates now...
and the delegate math just doesn't favour Bernie.
Winning MI by 1%, as Bernie did in 2016, might be a moral victory, but would net only a couple delegates.
Bernie needs a resounding victory in MI, between 10% and 20%, in order try to claw into Biden's delegate lead.
Similarly for WA. Narrow victories won't do it, because Biden's going to win big in MS and could net 15-20 delegates.
There are 365 delegates available on Mar 10. (including Democrats Abroad)
If Bernie is a net delegate loser or even a slim net delegate winner (less than +20) on Mar 10, then his campaign is done.
If Bernie is a moderate delegate winner (+40 to +50) then his campaign will live until Mar 17.
If Bernie is a big delegate winner on Mar 10 (+80 to +100) then his campaign comes off life support and he's back in the race.
I believe that the results from Mar 10 will fall into the first category.
Sid
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Demsrule86
(71,021 posts)booked marked it...thanks! Very helpful .
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SidDithers
(44,266 posts)Sid
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Cha
(305,400 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sid
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Cha
(305,400 posts)Aloha, Sid~
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
oasis
(51,703 posts)Biden's the one who'll get it done.
DEMOCRAT
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SCantiGOP
(14,238 posts)It currently has Biden's odds at 7 out of 8, and Bernie at 1 in 50.
If you want to bet the long shot, Tulsi is <1 in 100. "Less than" 1 could mean her odds are at hundreds of thousands to one.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
sheshe2
(87,475 posts)Thanks, Sid.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
RDavisJ1
(52 posts)The bad news for Bernie is March 17th is looking worse for him.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SidDithers
(44,266 posts)Sid
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
MineralMan
(147,576 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
showblue22
(1,026 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SidDithers
(44,266 posts)so 220 Biden, 145 Sanders.
Which is exactly the opposite of what Sanders needs.
Sid
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
SidDithers
(44,266 posts)Here's how the delegates are shaking out after last night, according to The Green Papers:
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D
MS Biden +32
MO Biden +20
MI Biden +21
ID Biden +2
ND Sanders +2
WA Tie
Total Biden +73
I thought Democrats Abroad was also a Mar 10 result, but that's when voting closes. Results for DA are due Mar 23.
Obviously, results may still change a bit, but probably not by much.
Sid
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
William769
(55,815 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden