On the Coronavirus!

As a dynamics / systems analyst - there are two *very* different states:

The "linear" or small/medium signal
This is the "system working but needs to be tweaked". You can throw traditional fixes, damp it, work with it, try to get it "back to normal" etc. Repair what trump has done, go back to the Obama era, etc.
To me that's the Biden view.


The "nonlinear" and large signal, instabilities, chaotic, etc
This is the system of something approaching the breaking point. Change *will* happen (climate change, health issues, global unrest and instability). This requires a not just working in the same old way - there is non-linear events happening /tipping points, etc. The tried and true approach is not going to work. Record climate events and cost. 60,000 dying from lack of HC. Orders of magnitude wealth disparity. Hyper sensitivity of the markets due to de-regulation etc.
To me that's the Sanders view.

Exactly.

With another always works. We could go full banana republic and have a dictator, then a socialist to counter the dictator, then a capitalist to get us back to a free market trickle down economy, then back to the dictator because the poor have been oppressed into having to overthrow their govt. Then back to a socialist rinse repeat.

Or we could just go back to normal and make incremental changes that doesn't make the opposition feel like they have to counter with an extreme agenda.

have been pointing to its pre-explosion smoldering, large signs that have been, and continue to be brushed off.

So even if we get back to where we were before (which seems like a good dream right now), we will crash and burn again because where we were before was still too close to the edge, too unstable. As long as repuke (in particular, but not exclusively) Congresscritters focus an inordinate amount of their attention on trying to achieve what their (wink, wink) “real” constituents want, it will never be a government primarily focused on the public’s wants/needs.

So we ask ourselves why we have let it get to this point, why we let them get away with so much utter crap. And we pretty much understand the way ball is played, and that that’s why we are where we are.

That’s why the house is on fire.

He was vice president for 8 years, and during a quite successful administration. Yes, I know VPs don't always do much, but Obama trusted him to take charge of a number of projects. And that's important-- Obama, whose judgment really is very sound-- trusts him. In fact, we know that's based on performance, because Obama was not a Joe fan in the beginning of their partnership, but became one as he worked with him.

Sanders isn't stupid or evil like Trump, and I believe were he president, Sanders would do his best for the country, in marked contrast to Trump (who doesn't give a sht). However, 30 years in Congress doesn't give especially the backbenchers much administration experience. And we now need someone who can make things work.

I'm not crazy about Biden-- I think he's too old (I'm 64, if that matters... I notice most of us near senior status tend to worry more about candidate age than younger people). I think he's too emotional. But his heart is in the right place, and he's got lots of hands-on experience with a crisis.

Oddly, we were right in 2008 choosing a man of little experience (but great temperament-- unflappable and thoughtful) to handle what was the last great crisis. We were lucky, as we were lucky in 1932, to get someone who was especially good in a crisis.

We don't have an Obama left in the race (though if we could somehow merge Warren and Buttigieg, we'd have someone of similar temperament/intellect combo), that we can count on to have the perfect instincts+insight to figure out what to do.

But we do have 1 person who has lots of experience and a reassuring manner, and we know he's not going to angrily crash the country into a bridge abutment like Trump might do. ("The EU was mean to me! I'm going to cut them off!&quot

Tried and true is a good guide for uncertain times. I feel better about Biden being the candidate (and next president than I did two weeks ago, because I think the experience will help create confidence. And we need that.

normalcy and stability. I don't think he's too old either. I believe he will pick a strong progressive Dem woman as VP. Bernie is too risky. Besides many of us have a problem with Bernie not being a true Dem. We see him as a user.

Biden will be immeasurably better than Trump (who set the fire in the first place).

"Bernie is pretty much focused on his long time policy issues ..." That's a fair assessment and I understand those who focus on the house fire and not the long term policy issues. All of us don't want the house to continue to burn.

but I don't see Bernie winning against trump. Too many Center/Left voters who we will need in November will not vote for him. He has no down ballot coattails either. He's too risky.

I do think Bernie would beat Trump and polls bear this out. But it does not matter anyway. And I know that the center thinks the left won't vote for Biden. And the left thinks the center won't vote for Sanders. I think the vast majority of the left and center will vote for either if for no other reason than to get rid of Trump.

so that it can rapidly respond to emergencies (such as the covid-19 situation right now), then restore relationships with our allies overseas, get rid of ICE, release all of the children and people this tyrannical administration has locked up, overturn all those disastrous and inhumane immigration policies, restore consumer protection policies the Idiot has decimated.

There are many more of course, but these are a start.

POTUS experience without actually being POTUS.

I just listened to Obama presenting Joe with the Presidential Medal of Freedom. (https://www.democraticunderground.com/1287409101) In Biden's response, he talked of how the VP position has no inherent power, and says to Obama that he more than kept his commitment to Joe to help govern. He says that every single thing Obama asked him to do, he trusted him to do. That if someone asked Obama if he could get Joe to do something, Obama would say "I don't keep his schedule;" that when Obama sent him around the world, they knew that Joe spoke for Obama.
That this kind of relationship had not existed before between POTUS and VP.

So what struck me is that essentially Joe already has as close as you can get to presidential experience without actually being POTUS and is by far best situated to repair and rebuild in the most efficient and effective way possible. He already knows the job and the people both in the US and around the world - the potential cabinet picks, agency heads, etc. He will have a much shorter learning curve and broader overview than any of the others, which is very much needed at this time, more than ever.

I never considered sanders to be a serious candidate. sanders has zero major legislative accomplishments in part because none of his fellow Democrats really want to support his agenda. I do not understand sanders' political revolution and how this revolution would somehow force congress to adopt his agenda. The only thing that is clear is that sanders attacks on other Democrats and the Democratic Establishment have backfired

Link to tweet