Democratic Primaries

highplainsdem

(52,392 posts) Fri Mar 13, 2020, 05:35 PM Mar 2020

Why Nate Silver thinks the primary is basically resolved

Link to tweet

If you're wondering why my tone implies that the primary is basically resolved, here are our polling averages for the 4 states voting on Tuesday:

FL: Biden +42.8
IL: Biden +29.9
OH: Biden +24.6
AZ: Biden +24.5

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

7 replies

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Highlight:

Why Nate Silver thinks the primary is basically resolved (Original Post) highplainsdem Mar 2020 OP

So Bernie will be the loser? Four times? Decisively? NurseJackie Mar 2020 #1

My only concern Zeus69 Mar 2020 #2

I hope the Sanders campaign isn't counting that possibility among their reasons for continuing highplainsdem Mar 2020 #7

538 currently has Biden forecast to win every remaining race. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #3

Kick & recommended. William769 Mar 2020 #4

Gosh I hope Nate is right! FM123 Mar 2020 #5

Sick, but you're probably right. HarlanPepper Mar 2020 #6

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)

1. So Bernie will be the loser? Four times? Decisively?

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 13, 2020, 05:40 PM

Mar 2020

Sounds like Biden has this thing wrapped up. Why is Bernie giving his followers false hope? Are they still donating money to a lost cause?

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Zeus69

(459 posts)

2. My only concern

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 13, 2020, 05:45 PM

Mar 2020

Is that the pandemic will limit voting, especially in the demographic that favors Biden.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

highplainsdem

(52,392 posts)

7. I hope the Sanders campaign isn't counting that possibility among their reasons for continuing

Reply to Zeus69 (Reply #2)

Fri Mar 13, 2020, 07:26 PM

Mar 2020

when they otherwise have no apparent path to the nomination.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TwilightZone

(28,833 posts)

3. 538 currently has Biden forecast to win every remaining race.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 13, 2020, 05:46 PM

Mar 2020

The entire slate.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

William769

(55,830 posts)

4. Kick & recommended.

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 13, 2020, 05:51 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

FM123

(10,126 posts)

5. Gosh I hope Nate is right!

Reply to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Mar 13, 2020, 05:59 PM

Mar 2020

I think that Sanders is counting on the older vote not materializing for Biden (staying home from polls due to coronavirus risk) because he just opened five new campaign offices in Pennsylvania today and the PA vote doesn't even happen until the end of April.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

HarlanPepper

(2,042 posts)

6. Sick, but you're probably right.

Reply to FM123 (Reply #5)

Fri Mar 13, 2020, 07:02 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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