Headed in the right direction now 37%, 8/19 33%
Off on the wrong track now 56%, 8/19 60%
=Junk Poll

Sanders 49%, Trump 45% - same as Biden, within the margin of error.

Since a relatively small number of people were polled here, the margin of error is fairly high - 3.27%, according to the link. In other words, any scores that are not more than 3% apart cannot be considered to be significantly different - they might be due to random fluctuations within a small sample size. Same as flipping a coin - two heads in a row isn't significant, but ten in a row would be.

Bernie got 49% vs Trump while Biden got 52% vs Trump - that's only a 3% differential between their scores, and is not a statistically significant difference. If they had interviewed 10,000 people and gotten those same results, then it'd be something to headline. But these results are only suggestive, not conclusive.

including the yuge one I did here this morning!

But instead you use the poll result compare Bernie and Joe's results against each other and use the polls MOE to say they have basically the same results in the poll. The poll measures how they match up against Trump not each other.

likes to say.

Biden beats Bernie by a large and statistically very significant margin in this head-to-head. And that's why he'll almost certainly win the nomination. But the point I was trying to make is that this one limited data point shows that both Dems have similarly good shots at beating Trump in head-to-head. That's all.

That MOE could also swing towards trump. If you add the MOE to trump against Biden he is well outside the MOE

Link to tweet

and trump 37-39%, GOP will be shitting downballot bricks

...in the swing states. Show me MI, MN, WI, PA, OH, and FL.