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Joe BidenCongratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
 

Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin

(115,373 posts)
Tue Mar 17, 2020, 01:00 PM Mar 2020

538: Our Final Forecast For Arizona, Florida And Illinois Shows A Big Biden Lead

In an extraordinary move, Ohio postponed its primary election at the last minute due to concerns about COVID-19, meaning just three states will vote today — Arizona, Florida and Illinois, the latter two of which are among the 10 most delegate-rich contests in the Democratic presidential primary.

But despite the bumps in the road, the Democratic nomination race continues, which means it’s time for FiveThirtyEight to once again freeze its forecast to see what the outlook is in each state. (Remember, we won’t be adding any new polls, endorsements or other data to our forecast until we have results from tonight’s contests.)

Overall, the top-line outcomes in these three states are pretty straightforward: Former Vice President Joe Biden is the heavy favorite, with a greater than 99 percent chance of winning the most votes in each state, according to our forecast. On average, Biden is projected to win anywhere from 59 percent to 67 percent of the vote, which doesn’t leave Sen. Bernie Sanders with much of a shot in any of these states.

The main thing to watch tonight will be the margins between Biden and Sanders, as these will directly affect the delegate race. Blowout wins for Biden could also push the race toward its de facto conclusion and may even prompt Sanders to drop out. Although this scenario is unlikely, we shouldn’t completely write off an election surprise, especially considering we don’t know how the COVID-19 virus may affect these elections.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-final-forecast-for-arizona-florida-and-illinois-shows-a-big-biden-lead/

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
8 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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538: Our Final Forecast For Arizona, Florida And Illinois Shows A Big Biden Lead (Original Post) Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Mar 2020 OP
I hope so still_one Mar 2020 #1
They pretty much say that for each and every remaining primary. They forecast.... George II Mar 2020 #2
I'm So Worried About the Impact that CV-19 will Have on Voting Indykatie Mar 2020 #3
I am too, but... Happy Hoosier Mar 2020 #4
That really tells the story right there... that's the ceiling. NurseJackie Mar 2020 #5
This 538 side article caught my eye when I looked at your link... BidenBacker Mar 2020 #6
Then DownriverDem Mar 2020 #7
that would require certain parties to ditch their poor me Im a victim status nt msongs Mar 2020 #8
 

George II

(67,782 posts)
2. They pretty much say that for each and every remaining primary. They forecast....
Tue Mar 17, 2020, 01:03 PM
Mar 2020

...that Biden will get 70% of the remaining delegates, Sanders only 30%.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Indykatie

(3,853 posts)
3. I'm So Worried About the Impact that CV-19 will Have on Voting
Tue Mar 17, 2020, 01:10 PM
Mar 2020

Tonight we'll get some idea of its impact on turn-out which had been on a record setting pace in many places. I have been voting via mail ballot for at least 10 years and I assume that's pretty typical for older voters or at least I hope it is.

Go Joe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

Happy Hoosier

(8,405 posts)
4. I am too, but...
Tue Mar 17, 2020, 01:12 PM
Mar 2020

Keep in mind that Biden voters are the most reliable voters, and most likely to do what they have to do to make sure they vote counts.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

NurseJackie

(42,862 posts)
5. That really tells the story right there... that's the ceiling.
Tue Mar 17, 2020, 01:16 PM
Mar 2020

Poor Bernie. It's over. He won't be nominated. He won't be our party's Socialist leader. He won't be our nation's first Socialist president.




Joe/Kamala or Biden/Harris 2020!!
Jump on the Biden Bandwagon & abandon the revolution!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

BidenBacker

(1,089 posts)
6. This 538 side article caught my eye when I looked at your link...
Tue Mar 17, 2020, 01:23 PM
Mar 2020
Bloomberg Lost, But He May Still Get What He Wanted

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bloomberg-lost-but-he-may-still-get-what-he-wanted/

Maybe Joe will make him his Secretary of Treasury...I'd feel a lot better having Billionaire Bloomberg in that position than that clueless Munchkin dude. Him and Krudlow scare the shit outta me if we end up with a full-blown financial crisis.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

DownriverDem

(6,648 posts)
7. Then
Tue Mar 17, 2020, 01:24 PM
Mar 2020

Bernie supporters need to get on board. They are not helping at all.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
 

msongs

(70,178 posts)
8. that would require certain parties to ditch their poor me Im a victim status nt
Tue Mar 17, 2020, 01:40 PM
Mar 2020
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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