Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forum538: Our Final Forecast For Arizona, Florida And Illinois Shows A Big Biden Lead
In an extraordinary move, Ohio postponed its primary election at the last minute due to concerns about COVID-19, meaning just three states will vote today Arizona, Florida and Illinois, the latter two of which are among the 10 most delegate-rich contests in the Democratic presidential primary.
But despite the bumps in the road, the Democratic nomination race continues, which means its time for FiveThirtyEight to once again freeze its forecast to see what the outlook is in each state. (Remember, we wont be adding any new polls, endorsements or other data to our forecast until we have results from tonights contests.)
Overall, the top-line outcomes in these three states are pretty straightforward: Former Vice President Joe Biden is the heavy favorite, with a greater than 99 percent chance of winning the most votes in each state, according to our forecast. On average, Biden is projected to win anywhere from 59 percent to 67 percent of the vote, which doesnt leave Sen. Bernie Sanders with much of a shot in any of these states.
The main thing to watch tonight will be the margins between Biden and Sanders, as these will directly affect the delegate race. Blowout wins for Biden could also push the race toward its de facto conclusion and may even prompt Sanders to drop out. Although this scenario is unlikely, we shouldnt completely write off an election surprise, especially considering we dont know how the COVID-19 virus may affect these elections.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-final-forecast-for-arizona-florida-and-illinois-shows-a-big-biden-lead/
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
still_one
(96,033 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)...that Biden will get 70% of the remaining delegates, Sanders only 30%.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Indykatie
(3,850 posts)Tonight we'll get some idea of its impact on turn-out which had been on a record setting pace in many places. I have been voting via mail ballot for at least 10 years and I assume that's pretty typical for older voters or at least I hope it is.
Go Joe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Happy Hoosier
(8,302 posts)Keep in mind that Biden voters are the most reliable voters, and most likely to do what they have to do to make sure they vote counts.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Poor Bernie. It's over. He won't be nominated. He won't be our party's Socialist leader. He won't be our nation's first Socialist president.
Joe/Kamala or Biden/Harris 2020!!
Jump on the Biden Bandwagon & abandon the revolution!!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
BidenBacker
(1,089 posts)https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bloomberg-lost-but-he-may-still-get-what-he-wanted/
Maybe Joe will make him his Secretary of Treasury...I'd feel a lot better having Billionaire Bloomberg in that position than that clueless Munchkin dude. Him and Krudlow scare the shit outta me if we end up with a full-blown financial crisis.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DownriverDem
(6,594 posts)Bernie supporters need to get on board. They are not helping at all.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
msongs
(69,980 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden