It's very clever.

is amazing. Inspiring. Possibly the most qualified candidate ever, by virtue alone of having been
VP for eight years, extensive FP cred, and an accomplished career, he was always underestimated.

He still will be—as the safe choice, Coronavirus fears robbing Sanders of a win, getting ahead somehow by default despite stimulating but lukewarm feelings in voters, and blah, blah.

Those of us who have believed in him from the start are not surprised. Bravo, Joe, much deserved.

America - a decent, empathetic, authentic, qualified and seasoned statesman.

No way. That was all media crap. Loses in Iowa and VT were meaningless.

Once the actual demographic of The US got a chance to vote it was clear.

Then almost all of the primary candidates chose Joe. Then it was BOOM!!

alot.
Of course I suspect Bernie might be in the lead rather than Biden had Bernie not burned his own bridges back in 2016 by switching back to being a registered Independent not to mention the screw up he committed with that whole "Democratic Establishment" statement as I am willing to bet that pissed off atleast some people that might have voted for him before.

Also his argumentative demeanor and his fruitless attacks on Joe.

But what rubbed me the wrong way was his attacks on Democrats who disagreed with him in the least--and his persona of a dogmatic, finger-wagging scold.

Most annoying.

Last edited Wed Mar 18, 2020, 11:30 AM - Edit history (1)

in the Philadelphia media market for the last 50 years. Biden was just always there. Don't know if he had exceptional staff, ran them well, but he was simply a local institution. His allegedly horrible gaffes were over-hyped. He rarely said anything controversial, the PR from his office were standard common sense. He's an ordinary institution.

A Republican relative of mine was furious and aghast when Biden laughed Paul Ryan off the stage. But I don't think it was a big deal to other than Republican loyalists.

Paul Ryan has been quiet. Bet he's got 2024 on his mind.

And the rules are the rules until they don't work anymore. Sort of like the stock market.

He'll still wipe up the floor with that empty suit. Biden was right to call malarkey on him.

I don't think PR has ever recovered from that one.

THAT is what is "unprecedented"

Lost first 6 contests. Then he hit Georgia and hitm the jackpot.

He did not win Iowa or New Hampshire in 1992. He did come 2nd in NH though.

So if Joe Biden is a rule breaker, I think this augers well for him because the last nominee who didn't win IA or NH did win the presidency.

Bill is Hillary's husband. You must be correct. I remember he had a successful primary campaign in 1992.

Joe is amazing and is the best candidate to take on trump. Beating trump is the only thing that matters and Joe is now positioned well to take on trump

I'm sorry for doubting you.

Last edited Wed Mar 18, 2020, 06:55 PM - Edit history (1)

Link to tweet

I was amused when he took my cell phone away from me to snap a better selfie than I could

Joe and I discussed stuttering and he was amazing

Albert Hunt fails.

But anyone who knows politics knew that, if he hung in there, Biden was going to come roaring back when the primaries got out of white bread Iowa and New Hampshire, and into the cities and the South, where more diverse populations were. Biden was always going to be popular with one of the pillars of the Democratic base, African-Americans, because Obama. That's all there was to it.

More often than not, politics isn't as complicated as these media yahoos "think."

for the past several months.

We need Joe and his kindness. We trust that he will be open minded and innovative.

He lost both NH and Iowa - although Iowa was Harkin's state and Tsongus was from a neighboring state. He then lost the next two, before he won many southern states on the first multistate day. He did not clinch the nomination until some time in June. Of course, he was not as well known as VP Biden. Muskie won Iowa and NH in 1972. If you count Republican primaries, the description of being ahead, fading, losing funding and then recovering and winning sounds like McCain, who did win NH.

Saying that something is "unprecedented" ignores that it was not until 1972 that the current system of primaries and caucuses everywhere was in place. That means the number of years that there was an open Democratic nomination without an incumbent is only 9. 1972, 1976, 1984, 1988, 1992, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2016. Each of those years are pretty unique, if you look at how they played out. 2000 was essentially similar to having an incumbent President - even though Bradley, a very capable Senator challenged Gore. Of the remaining, 2004 likely was the fastest to converge around a nominee with Kerry only losing losing 2 states (Oklahoma, where he was about 3 percent below Edwards and Clark who essentially tied with Clark slightly ahead and SC where Edwards won. After Kerry was the defacto nominee, both Vermont and NC had favorite sons win in their elections. )

Biden's likely win - even if there were no coronovirus - would probably have been more solid - in terms of both delegates and number of states than any of previous year other than 2000 and 2004.

1972 was a mess with McGovern winning 21 states ( I had forgotten how successful Wallace was - he was second with 10 states)
1976 Jimmy Carter had 30 states including every Southern state.
1984 Gary Hart won 26 states and it came down to a multistate day in June for Monday to get enough delegates - there was some controversy near the end about superdelegates. I guess you could say this was most like 2008 - with the outcome reversed.
1988 Dukakis won 30 states in a very divided primary that stayed competive longer than this year.
1992 Another year that dragged on until June - Clinton ultimately won 37 states after NOT winning the first 5. Starting in early April, Clinton won every contest by large amounts, but it took until California voted in June to get the number of delegates.
2008 similar to 1984, except after ST Obama had the edge and never gave it up.
2016 HRC won 34 states and won over 50% of the pledged delegates in June when CA and NJ voted. She was always the heavy favorite.

So, which year looks the most like this year would likely have looked without the virus (and no unexpected BIG event for any candidate)?

Here is a link to a NYT article that was written on March 12, before anyone realized how much the country would change with Corona virus - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/12/us/elections/delegates-bernie-sanders-joe-biden.html To summarize because it is likely behind a paywall:
- the first chart is the prediction based on Biden doing as well as he has so far - every future state would go to Biden, some were identified as close others as big wins. They predicted he would have 50% of the pledged delegates by late April or early May.
- The next chart showed what would happen if Biden lost 12% of his popularity. He would still win the majority of delegates, but if it fell more than 12%, it would likely be a contested convention. (Note they said this would happen even if he did not win Illinois, Arizona and NY where he was then (March 12) still favored. -- Obviously, Biden is in even better shape having decisive wins in AZ and IL.)
- The next chart looked at what would happen if Sanders improved his support by 17% (and Biden stayed where he was) - That was the magnitude needed for Sanders to win a plurality of the vote. Note that simulation included solid wins in IL and AZ and a close loss in FL - none of which happened - meaning at this point he would need more than that 17% improvement.
- For Sanders to get the majority, it would require a 21 % increase - and as noted he did not do anything remotely like that in last night's states. Consider this even included a close win in FL!
I suspect that the NYT might update this, but I also think it would be beating a dead horse!

From this, it is clear that Biden would likely win all the remaining states - clinching in April when NY, DE, PA, RI and CT voted or possibly early May. This would likely be the third easiest - after Gore and Kerry, but before all the others.

As a gen-x'er the first race I really remember was 1988, which I recall as bitterly divided between white Dems supporting Dukakis and PoC Dems supporting Jessie Jackson. Then Dukakis got destroyed by Poppy.

Bill Clinton was a stronger candidate than his early losses would indicate, as he was always popular amongst both white and PoC Dems, and thus able to unify the wings that were divided previously.

Once Bill (with Hillary's help) overcame the Gennifer Flowers scandal, he was off to the races, having to deal only with Jerry Brown, which was bitter, as iirc Brown took it to the floor of the convention.

We're not self-deprecatingly calling ourselves stubborn jackasses.


The Donkey is the Workhorse's Workhorse, carrying the heavy load for the long haul.

The Donkey is sure-footed and calm. The very definition of a steady hand at the plow.

The Donkey is the Protector of the Herd, fearlessly running off coyotes and wolves.

The Donkey is intelligent and always remembers what it has learned through experience.

The Donkey does not suffer fools, but for one who has gained its trust, their loyalty is unmatched.


Be a Donkey, my friends.

middle of the road lack luster uninspiring candidate when the field was so promising of course I’ll vote for Joe but not with enthusiasm and lacking any passion or hope for real change.

don't you think? Evidently a whole lot of people were inspired enough and found him possessing enough luster to vote for him overwhelmingly vs. the other guy. That's how democracy works - the person who inspires the most voters ends up winning. Biden inspired far more voters than Bernie did.

boy did voters of all ages, from diverse America, across the political spectrum, get out and vote, in the midst of the plague!

I’d say some are quite enthusiastic.

that they be "inspired" by a candidate. We aren't adoring a movie star; we're hiring a manager. I've always liked Biden but my inspiration comes from wanting to get rid of Trump, and I think he has the best shot at doing that. I don't need a tingle up my leg to decide to vote for someone.

being a "middle of the road lackluster uninspired candidate" does not compute. It's like the people who say it haven't paid attention to him outside of a few snippets on the MSM. Because he's kinda crazy in a ha-ha way, not a lunatic way.

Plus, there's that working-class Scranton dude who comes out from behind the sorta polished facade every now and then when you least expect it. Joe is a tough old scrapper and ordinary guy behind his "foreign policy expertise" gravitas. I bet he knows how to kick your lawn mower to get it started and the exact way to jiggle a toilet handle when the tank won't get filled up.

He has actually been inspiring. Perhaps he's rising to the occasion.

I just hope he doesn't have a stroke. Or something.

Than I ever would have been with voting for BS. It was going to take a huge effort to overcome that gag reflex for me. Probably because it's always been my policy to vote for a Democrat, and he isn't one.

The Democratic party voters creating a blue wave for this win.

Link to tweet

be on his way to be President!

see how they perform going forward. Let's hope they refrain the horse race nonsense for the GE.