Democratic Primaries

guillaumeb

(42,649 posts) Fri Mar 20, 2020, 12:48 PM Mar 2020

Can Biden beat Trump? Michigan's swing districts offer good clues

From the article:

It may be early to be making predictions about what will happen in the presidential election eight months from now. But there’s good news for Joe Biden if you dig into the district-by-district results from Michigan’s Democratic primary last week. I found strong evidence that he’s building a diverse coalition of support that, if maintained, could win him the state and the electoral college vote come November.
Biden’s primary victory in Michigan kept his momentum going and did serious damage to Bernie Sanders’ chances for the nomination. Equally important is how Biden won in Michigan. On Tuesday, we’ll hear from two more big swing states, Florida and Ohio, as voters there cast their primary ballots. But first, here’s what we can glean from the Michigan contest.

To read more:

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-03-17/joe-biden-michigan-primary-election

An interesting article that offers hope that Biden can inspire voters at the level of President Obama's campaigns.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

13 replies

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Highlight:

Can Biden beat Trump? Michigan's swing districts offer good clues (Original Post) guillaumeb Mar 2020 OP

Kick & recommended. William769 Mar 2020 #1

The numbers cited appear to show that Biden is outperforming the HRC and Sanders numbers from 2016, guillaumeb Mar 2020 #3

Suburban White Women Were a Big Part Of the Blue Wave Coalition in 20018 and Beshear's Win in KY Indykatie Mar 2020 #11

Agreed. One hopes that 2018 was the opening act, guillaumeb Mar 2020 #12

Yes! ananda Mar 2020 #2

They're not even swing districts, too many were overconfident Meadowoak Mar 2020 #4

These Districts did swing in 2016. guillaumeb Mar 2020 #5

Democratic voters did NOT change party's and vote for Trump. Meadowoak Mar 2020 #6

From the article: guillaumeb Mar 2020 #8

I'm sure that the auto factories shutting down BidenBacker Mar 2020 #7

I would identify this as sarcasm. guillaumeb Mar 2020 #9

I'll let your response serve as a sarcasm alert BidenBacker Mar 2020 #10

Thank you.. will read this when I get back! Cha Mar 2020 #13

William769

(55,830 posts)

1. Kick & recommended.

Reply to guillaumeb (Original post)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 12:51 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

guillaumeb

(42,649 posts)

3. The numbers cited appear to show that Biden is outperforming the HRC and Sanders numbers from 2016,

Reply to William769 (Reply #1)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 12:52 PM

Mar 2020

and of course in 2020.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Indykatie

(3,853 posts)

11. Suburban White Women Were a Big Part Of the Blue Wave Coalition in 20018 and Beshear's Win in KY

Reply to guillaumeb (Reply #3)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 01:55 PM

Mar 2020

Biden is holding on to those voters and doing better than Hillary in other demographics including White men and Whites without a college degree. He is also helped by increased turn-out. Dems are fired up!!!!!!!!!!!

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

guillaumeb

(42,649 posts)

12. Agreed. One hopes that 2018 was the opening act,

Reply to Indykatie (Reply #11)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 06:49 PM

Mar 2020

and that 2020 sees Trump fall.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

ananda

(30,824 posts)

2. Yes!

Reply to guillaumeb (Original post)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 12:51 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Meadowoak

(6,220 posts)

4. They're not even swing districts, too many were overconfident

Reply to guillaumeb (Original post)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 01:08 PM

Mar 2020

That Hillary would win in a landslide and stayed home. Republicans will crawl through broken glass to get to the polls EVERY TIME. Trust me, the districts didn't flip.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

guillaumeb

(42,649 posts)

5. These Districts did swing in 2016.

Reply to Meadowoak (Reply #4)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 01:10 PM

Mar 2020

And part of the problem was, as you noted, poor turnout.

But if this performance, and the 2018 mid-term elections, are a reliable indicator, Trump may be in serious trouble.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Meadowoak

(6,220 posts)

6. Democratic voters did NOT change party's and vote for Trump.

Reply to guillaumeb (Reply #5)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 01:15 PM

Mar 2020

That would be my definition of a swing district. Nope, they just didn't vote.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided

guillaumeb

(42,649 posts)

8. From the article:

Reply to Meadowoak (Reply #6)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 01:19 PM

Mar 2020

Michigan was a crucial swing state in 2016 and is likely to be again in 2020. It contains congressional districts that run the political gamut. For instance, the 13th District is represented by Rashida Tlaib, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America.

The 8th District, which went for Trump in 2016, is now represented by Elissa Slotkin, a moderate Democrat who defeated a Republican incumbent in the 2018 midterm election. The 4th District is a solid Republican district, held by John Moolenaar, a Trump supporter.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

BidenBacker

(1,089 posts)

7. I'm sure that the auto factories shutting down

Reply to guillaumeb (Original post)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 01:18 PM

Mar 2020

in Michigan will be a big plus for Trump. And Pennsylvania just had 120,000 new jobless claims in the last 2 days alone.

Yep, I fear that Biden has no chance in MI or PA...we'll have to look elsewhere for some more electoral votes, folks.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

guillaumeb

(42,649 posts)

9. I would identify this as sarcasm.

Reply to BidenBacker (Reply #7)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 01:20 PM

Mar 2020

It might be misinterpreted.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

BidenBacker

(1,089 posts)

10. I'll let your response serve as a sarcasm alert

Reply to guillaumeb (Reply #9)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 01:26 PM

Mar 2020

The folks here at DU strike me as a pretty intelligent bunch so I doubt many need it.

Hopefully the fine folks back in my native PA are starting to wise up a little...

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-new-jersey-unemployment-surge-coronavirus-20200319.html

Still greatly disappointed in them over what happened last time.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Cha

(305,440 posts)

13. Thank you.. will read this when I get back!

Reply to guillaumeb (Original post)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 07:04 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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