Democratic Primaries

George II

(67,782 posts) Fri Mar 20, 2020, 06:16 PM Mar 2020

538 has revised their probability for winning 1991 delegates before the convention....

While Biden has dropped 2% from 99 in 100 (99%) to 49 in 50 (98%), he didn't lose that to his only rival, Sanders, he lost it to "No one", who is now up to 1 in 50 (2%). Sanders remains at the bottom, tied with the Dropouts at <1 in 100 (0%)

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

19 replies

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538 has revised their probability for winning 1991 delegates before the convention.... (Original Post) George II Mar 2020 OP

RCP averages appear to have dropped 10% in the last 9 days jorgevlorgan Mar 2020 #1

While 538's chance of Biden may have dropped minusculy, their estimate of the delegates.... George II Mar 2020 #4

a heavy factor involves the possibility of bernie dropping out. jorgevlorgan Mar 2020 #12

No it doesn't...even my son in Indiana a huge Sanders supporter is angered by Sander's Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #18

Not sure what you're seeing. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #7

I'm just seeing the last three polls released put biden ahead 15 points jorgevlorgan Mar 2020 #11

Nope, Ipsos is an outlier. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #15

thanks! jorgevlorgan Mar 2020 #16

There is no way Biden is ahead by only 15 points...and even if it were true Sanders needs to win by Demsrule86 Mar 2020 #19

This message was self-deleted by its author jorgevlorgan Mar 2020 #14

Thanks.. I don't understand the No One.. ? Cha Mar 2020 #2

Arya Stark. n/t Yavin4 Mar 2020 #6

From what I recall, the model figures there's a very small possibility Biden could withdraw. TwilightZone Mar 2020 #9

Ah right.. Thank you, TwilightZone! Cha Mar 2020 #10

it means no one hits 1991 Celerity Mar 2020 #13

Switch to show a Plurality of Pledged Delegates. djacq Mar 2020 #3

Ah, that's a subtle change from previously. Good observation, thanks! George II Mar 2020 #5

Thank you, duacq.. Cha Mar 2020 #8

Well, at least Bernie's doing better than dropouts ... nolawarlock Mar 2020 #17

jorgevlorgan

(11,098 posts)

1. RCP averages appear to have dropped 10% in the last 9 days

Reply to George II (Original post)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 06:31 PM

Mar 2020

from 25% in the polls conducted from 3/11-3/15, and 15% in the polls conducted from 3/13-3/19. It is interesting if this crisis may be slowly reversing Bernie's chances.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html#polls

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

George II

(67,782 posts)

4. While 538's chance of Biden may have dropped minusculy, their estimate of the delegates....

Reply to jorgevlorgan (Reply #1)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 06:39 PM

Mar 2020

....to be won by him vs. Sanders has increased from yesterday to today - He's up 47.8 delegates, Sanders is down 22.9, a total shift of 70.7 in Biden's favor.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

jorgevlorgan

(11,098 posts)

12. a heavy factor involves the possibility of bernie dropping out.

Reply to George II (Reply #4)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 07:24 PM

Mar 2020

That is still a longshot at this point, so his likelihood of winning is still probably higher than <1% realistically. I would put it at 1%. I heard that is around the likelihood of having a child after one attempt.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Demsrule86

(71,040 posts)

18. No it doesn't...even my son in Indiana a huge Sanders supporter is angered by Sander's

Reply to jorgevlorgan (Reply #12)

Sat Mar 21, 2020, 11:44 AM

Mar 2020

behavior and will vote for Biden in the Indiana primary...the coming primaries will be humiliating for Sanders...

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TwilightZone

(28,835 posts)

7. Not sure what you're seeing.

Reply to jorgevlorgan (Reply #1)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 06:43 PM

Mar 2020

March 20, 2020:

Biden 55.5%
Sanders 36.2%

Difference: 19.3%

March 11, 2020 (9 days ago):

Biden: 53.4%
Sanders: 36.0%

Difference: 17.4%

Biden has increased his lead by 1.9% since nine days ago. Your samples include dates that cross-over and different polls, so they're not really comparable.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

jorgevlorgan

(11,098 posts)

11. I'm just seeing the last three polls released put biden ahead 15 points

Reply to TwilightZone (Reply #7)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 07:19 PM

Mar 2020

The 3 before that put him ahead 25 points. Yes, they cross over, but if (still a big if, I understand) that continues, it looks like there is an emerging trend away from Biden.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

TwilightZone

(28,835 posts)

15. Nope, Ipsos is an outlier.

Reply to jorgevlorgan (Reply #11)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 08:02 PM

Mar 2020

If you want to compare changes over time, look at multiple dates for the same polls. The way you're doing it includes the Reuters/Ipsos poll in only one of the two totals, and it looks like a clear outlier. No one else has had Biden under 48% in a couple weeks. That's the only real difference between the two groups.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

jorgevlorgan

(11,098 posts)

16. thanks!

Reply to TwilightZone (Reply #15)

Fri Mar 20, 2020, 08:10 PM

Mar 2020

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

Demsrule86

(71,040 posts)

19. There is no way Biden is ahead by only 15 points...and even if it were true Sanders needs to win by

Reply to jorgevlorgan (Reply #11)

Sat Mar 21, 2020, 11:46 AM

Mar 2020

20% in every remaining state which would amount to a 35% swing which won't happen. Sanders is done and honestly I don't know why you have a pic of Joe on your post...you can still have a Sanders pic.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden