Stay safe...

it's all our Planet that he's ******* with.

StaySafe, OnDoutside!

We have got to get this monster out of office.

Why didnt they report it by state since the EC votes are assigned by state? To me this isnt very useful unless we can see the state by state breakdown.

What states and what are the numbers per state. This is confusing data without reference to a particular state.

The poll release from Monmouth is linked in the article. The release states that there are approximately 300 counties across the U.S. where the margin in 2016 between Hillary Clinton and Mr. Trump was less than ten points either way. In those counties, while Hillary won in 2016 by only a single percentage point overall, Joe Biden is ahead by nine points.

I don't know what those counties are and Monmouth probably could/should have listed them, but I bet a web search will turn them up pretty fast.

The following was a link inside your main article. I suggest folks take a few minutes to read it, especially Sanders supporters...

How to dump Trump: Rick Wilson on Running Against the Devil

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/11/donald-trump-rick-wilson-running-against-the-devil

Wilson is a former GOP hitman...Dems need to listen to this guy. Have made more than one post in recent days and weeks saying the exact same thing. THIS is why Bernie staying in the race is hurting our chances. THIS is why the most extreme Bernie Bros need to back off and not force Biden to make too many concessions before the nomination and election. THIS is how we bury Trump and the GOP in November. Listen to him or we might lose. Win and rest assured that Joe will pass as much liberal and progressive legislation as we can afford and that we can get through Congress depending on our numbers next January.

Love them flamingos, BTW...enough to save the gif. Sure hope we're all doin' the bird dance the night of November 3rd. But if Wilson can't wise us up we might just be a bunch of despairing dead duck Dems instead. Take how bad we all felt the night of the last presidential election and multiply that by ten...that's what we have to look forward to and what it'll feel like if we fuck this up. If that happens making a stupid post on some obscure forum ain't gonna cut it for solace...I may have to eat a bullet.

you think we got any realistic shot at winning your state this year?

I imagine this Burr stock thing that broke a few days ago can't be helping the GOP any. Would be awesome if we could move south of Virginia and color another Dixie state blue.

I found this a few minutes before you responded...

NC Voter Registration Statistics

https://vt.ncsbe.gov/RegStat/Results/?date=03%2F21%2F2020

As of March 21...

Democratic: 2,528,232
Republican: 2,081,336
Independent: 2,302,222

More Ds than Rs?! That's shocking to me. I'd say based on that alone NC is definitely in play.

and we lost it by a sliver in 2012 and 2016.

I spent some extended time there.

The issue is that Charlotte, the largest city, is not as blue as one might expect, and therefore the cities have difficulty compensating for the rural areas (the other cities are far too small and not all overwhelmingly blue either). There is, however, a lot of Democratic support in the rural areas, more so than one might think, and so the state is always close.

I thought - perhaps wrongly - that Hillary Clinton took PA, MI, and WI for granted in an attempt to win NC and FL. I don't want Joe Biden to make the same choice this time around. But NC is far less expensive and resource-intensive than Florida, and if memory serves has a higher African-American population. NC also has a Senate race (and anger among the electorate at the apparent wrongdoing or possibly even crimes of the other senator, Burr, who is not up for reelection); FL has no Senate race. So I support efforts to fight in NC as well as GA and AZ provided that PA/MI/WI have been shored up (and I'm really only worried about the last of those three). I don't really want to see time and resources wasted in Florida.

For some reason I often erroneously think of NC as being redder (or at least less purple) than it really is and had forgotten what NCP just pointed out about Obama's 2008 win there. If not mistaken there has also been a recent influx of high-tech industrial parks there and those workers tend to be more liberal. Same thing is happening here in Arizona with migration changing the demographics, but Pubs still outnumber Dems by 2 or 3%...

Arizona Voter Registration & Historical Election Data

https://azsos.gov/elections/voter-registration-historical-election-data

I'm with you on WI...not worried about PA or MI because I seriously doubt Biden will just blow them off like we did in 2016. But WI will likely be the closest of the 3. Even if we can't flip it back I have high hopes for AZ which would more than compensate and if we can also add NC then Joe is well on his way without even needing any other help like OH or FL although it would obviously be great to pick those up as well.

2020 may still be close but if it's a blowout then it can only be a Democratic one which is an advantage for us. Would much rather be a D than an R heading into this one for sure.

That influx of high-tech workers (principally around the Research Triangle I believe) that you point out is real and has been underway for a while, as has the bluing of Charlotte, but they've both been very, very sloooooow. Meanwhile the Republicans drastically gerrymandered both the U.S. House and the state lege, giving them the microphone monopoly and demoralizing Dems and their backers. Those gerrymanders are unwinding, however, and North Carolinians seem to be coming to the realization - particularly given Governor Cooper's popularity and effectiveness including in this crisis - that Tillis and Burr are empty suits.

I think as you do - NC is going to be fertile ground, but it's always close. I feel very good about PA and MI and as long as we can focus properly on Wisconsin (which no longer has wonder boys Walker or Ryan to interfere with us), I think time spent in NC, AZ and GA - I really like your stats on AZ - is a very good investment. I would still leave FL largely alone, though. Let them come along for the ride if they wish.

Assume that:
1) Joe wins every state that Hillary did
2) Biden also picks up PA & MI

Both of these seem to be reasonable assumptions at the moment that will hopefully hold up thru the election. If so, then all Biden has to do is pick off just 1 outta a handful of other states...AZ, FL, NC, OH & WI seem to be the best candidates. Joe gets just one of them and we got it.

Meanwhile, the Fuhrer would have to run the entire table...and that moron couldn't even run a lemonade stand.

I like our chances...a lot. Putin's boys are gonna have to put in a helluva lot of overtime on THIS election.

Come over to our side! Those who have are doing a fine job.

I donated a few bucks to these guys a month or two ago. Never in a million years did I ever think I'd give money to Republicans..even if they are all now former ones dedicated to ousting Trump along with several GOP Senators they are targeting like McSally here in Arizona.

They sent me an email yesterday inviting me to dial into some special event that Wilson and a few other founders were having last night and perhaps ask a question but I lost track of time and failed to do so which I am kicking myself for now. Woulda loved to have heard what Rick and the others said.

Used to hate 99% of all Goppers but thanks to Trump we are finding out there really are some good conservatives who put country before party. Still disagree with many/most of their preferred policies but at least I don't question their patriotism. So I guess we have Trump to thank for that. Give me a decade or two and maybe I'll come up with another reason to be thankful.

primarily from cities and blue states.

Trump's gonna need a lot of help from Uncle Vlad to pull this one out of the shitter.

So many reports in 2016 of voter info shenanigans, & Dems accused Repugs; then we see reports of Russians messing with voter databases. I'm not saying the repugs were totally innocent; but stuff did happen that hurt us.

And we know that Vladdy Daddy is still pulling sh*t......

Because GOP don't want it because they can rig the voting machines with foreign help. easier...

My daughter chose that as her "animal" when she was in middle school, lol.

I'll have what they're having !!!

Go!

an indulgence since they'd presumably also show very good, but of course those would be very expensive and it's too early to predict what might happen next fall. 2016 PTSD.

Come on, use a fleck of common sense. Swing counties are swing counties for a reason. They mirror the national breakdown. There is 0.0000001% chance that Biden leads those counties by 9 points while leading nationally by only 3 points.

The poll itself says that Hillary and Trump tied in those counties. Hillary won by roughly 2.5% nationally. Now they want us to believe that swing areas have shifted nearly 10 points in our favor yet the national distribution remains unchanged?

Tell it to an idiot. When there is a preference shift of that magnitude it drapes like a blanket. It would be felt everywhere. This is when I miss being in Las Vegas. As soon as some nutcase stat or poll came out we would laugh at it in unison.

This is no different than Rachel Maddow grinning in 2016 while waving a South Carolina poll in the air with Hillary trailing Trump by 4 points. If you have no clue regarding the big picture correlation then anything can stick.