Democratic Primaries
Related: About this forumThis morning 538 updated their odds of winning the nomination. They have now forecast...
....that Sanders has ZERO chance of winning the nomination.
Biden >99 in 100 (>99%)
No One < 1 in 100 (0.1%)
Sanders < 1 in 100 (0%)
Dropouts < 1 in 100 (0%)
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
SWBTATTReg
(24,281 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LastLiberal in PalmSprings
(12,945 posts)If he was going to drop out he would have done so by now. His campaign has some subtext that is unexplainable.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
brush
(57,975 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Progressive dog
(7,282 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
DownriverDem
(6,674 posts)about the country. Instead he appears to be listening to those who don't really care about defeating trump.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
empedocles
(15,751 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)care enormously. They don't care about the things 9 out of 10 people do. But they do care so much about what they want, and believe in its great virtue, that nothing else matters. Including the 9 out of 10 they're doing their best to smash out of their way, even as they prate about representing "the people."
I believe we have excellent reason to believe Sanders would be perfectly willing to repeat 2016, and is still on track. As some posts here always show, Democrats are the main focus of his and his most devoted followers' blame and enmity, their big obstacle, not the Republicans.
They're now desperately looking -- and waiting -- for a bomb they can still use to blow us up. And we know the Republicans are even more desperate, and Russia's kleptocracy extremely concerned about their own survival.
It's not over until it's over.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
William769
(55,857 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
NurseJackie
(42,862 posts)Is there a "LESS THAN ZERO" option available?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tetrachloride
(8,482 posts)in Wisconsin ? You know, the place with the apparent Democratic convention.
What about all the rest of the states and Puerto Rice ?
Where are your numbers ?
One more thing, how many people like you in the Senate ? Do you know how to cut a deal ?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LizBeth
(10,884 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(34,793 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sloumeau
(2,657 posts)This is, of course, *fantastic* news for Joe Biden!
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
ret5hd
(21,320 posts)staying in for. Why wont anyone say it?
OK, I will at least ask a question:
Who is the potential nominee if Biden comes down with the virus?
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
Mr.Bill
(24,846 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
LSFL
(1,112 posts)No One has a commanding grip on 2nd place.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
George II
(67,782 posts)....be the candidate with the most delegates. That will remain Biden.
Check Sanders' supporters on Twitter, including some of his PAID staffers - they're almost rooting for Biden to get ill. They keep talking about Biden's health and age, even though Sanders is months away from heart surgery and he's a year older.
Really sad that it's come down to a situation where one campaign is acting like this.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
True Blue American
(18,196 posts)Do they ever think of that?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Thekaspervote
(34,793 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
johnthewoodworker
(694 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
George II
(67,782 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
johnthewoodworker
(694 posts)Similarly, Hillary was the heavily favored candidate over Sanders in 2016. As candidates dropped out of the campaign, Warren was my candidate, and Sanders was the only other candidate, this site was replete with posts touting Biden and disparaging Sanders. My point is that Biden has arrived as the eventual nominee and many people are quite happy, satisfied, and euphoric that he is the candidate. In 2016 the same was true with Hillary.
My concern is that Biden, like Clinton, while our best candidate, might not be good enough to win in November. I voted for Clinton in 2016 and will vote for Biden in 2020. There will be quite a bit of discussion and introspection if we lose in 2020. So, I am concerned.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
The Magistrate
(96,043 posts)What is the point of craw-fishing and suggesting he will be defeated?
"From Bernies perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they dont want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."
"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
johnthewoodworker
(694 posts)I believe that a better way to describe the situation would be to say that in DU circles Hillary was the one in 2016. After her defeat, in other forums, her candidacy was questioned. Was she, in fact, the best candidate. Her loss would indicate she was not. I don't 'suggest', but fear a similar outcome with Biden. If my fear is 'craw-fishing', then, yes, I'm craw-fishing. This is the defining election of everyone's lifetime. I fear the general election and Biden's acceptance by those that are not inspired by his selection. No offense to you, or, anyone else.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
The Magistrate
(96,043 posts)Crawfish, little miniature fresh water lobsters, move most quickly backwards by a quick curl of their tails.
It is still puzzling that you acknowledge Mr. Biden the best candidate, yet somehow seem to expect he will fail of victory. Is there someone else you prefer?
No need for concern about offending me. That is well nigh impossible to do, and people have tried.
Be well, Sir, and stay safe.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
johnthewoodworker
(694 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Undecided
The Magistrate
(96,043 posts)"Pessimists get pleasant surprises. Optimists face bitter disappointments."
"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
grantcart
(53,061 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(305,763 posts)and he's telling his supporters he has "a narrow path"?! But he wouldn't tell Whoopi what it is?
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
grantcart
(53,061 posts)"So there IS a chance! ".
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Cha
(305,763 posts)them.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Sucha NastyWoman
(2,922 posts)I keep hearing how hateful he and his followers are, but I only see our side attacking theirs here. Ok so maybe somewhere else they do evil things, but I dont see it going on here. I see just the opposite. Im glad Biden isnt doing it too..
Bernie is no more relevant to the election than, say Tulsi Gabbard, Marianne Williamson or Michael Bloomberg. Only DUers give him any relevance at all, as far as I can see.
Going after Trump is going to promote Biden, not going after Bernie.
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
The Magistrate
(96,043 posts)Even if the harm is not too likely to result in a November defeat, it remains a risk it is not necessary to endure. Since Sanders has no discernible chance to secure the nomination for President of the Democratic Party, his continuing an ostensible campaign for the position invites speculation as to his actual motivation. On the record of his previous performance, the most likely reason for his persistence is the desire to wring platform and rules concessions from our Party, using the threat his most devoted followers might not vote for the Party's nominee in November if he is not thus placated as a tool for blackmail towards this end. He would not have the votes on the convention floor to secure anything, so that any alteration to platform or rules at all would be well in excess of what by ordinary rules of democratic process he would be entitled to.
It is worth noting as well that Sanders probably could not deliver his most devoted followers even if negotiations in good faith were pursued. The instant it was obvious such negotiations were underway, these people would turn on Sanders with cries he was a sell-out, knuckling under to the 'Democratic Establishment' and the big corporations, and in general denouncing him as a false messiah betraying the revolution. Sanders has 'called up that which he cannot put down' and is but driftwood on the wave of currents and events he cannot much influence, and has largely misperceived to begin with.
"From Bernies perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they dont want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."
"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Pepsidog
(6,317 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
The Magistrate
(96,043 posts)And it is worth noting how odds and probabilities work when dealing with measures such as the 538 people deal in. That something presents odds of, say, five out of six, does not by any means ensure a single trial will not prove to be one where the one in six chance will come home. It means that if you could run the trial a large number of times, say sixty thousands, that one outcome would occur about fifty thousand times and one about ten thousand times. Elections being one time events, however good a calculation of odds might be, and however one sided the odds are, an anomalous result may still occur on a single trial.
The odds given by the 538 people on Sanders securing a majority of delegates out of the remaining primaries are such that he could not win on a single throw of honest twenty-sided dice 'percentile' dice. Since a great many separate events are involved (the succession of individual state primaries), the calculation of these odds reflects cumulative probabilities, rather than a single trial. Sanders does not have to win a single coin toss, he has to win something on the order of two dozen coin tosses in succession. Any sum you care to place on that possibility I would be happy to cover at any odds you might name. I would consider putting up a hundred to secure a hundred and one an investment rather than a wager.
"From Bernies perspective, dropping out of a race once you have no chance of winning is peculiar behavior that can only be explained by the work of a hidden hand. For most politicians, though, it is actually standard operating procedure. Only Sanders seems to think the normal thing to do once voters have made clear they dont want to nominate you is to continue campaigning anyway."
"When things are not called by their right names, what is said cannot make sense. When what is said does not make sense, what is planned cannot succeed. When plans do not succeed, people become uneasy. When people are uneasy, punishments do not fit crimes. When punishments do not fit crimes, people cannot know where to put hand or foot."
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
Tarheel_Dem
(31,443 posts)primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden