And, like you, I'm thoroughly impressed by Elizabeth Warren. That said, I'm sticking with Pete!

I so so hope he starts to gain traction with non-white Democratic voters. That is still his major Achilles heel atm.

That said, I am thrilled that he is basically tied (with Bernie and Warren) for 2nd in Iowa!

Bernie has a hard ceiling, Warren does not. IF Bernie dropped out (I cannot see that happening, even if he gets 4th in IA, and gets smashed in NH, NV, SC) and told his supporters to all back Warren (and I posit that IF Bernie truly cared about his pet issues, he would do this as Warren is amazingly similar in policy, and is a far better, far more detailed messenger with far less baggage as well), Biden would be in big big trouble.

Biden is sliding in multiple national and state polls (Dems and Dem-leaning voters) now. Africans-Americans are saving his arse atm, and I fully believe this is significantly due to his Obama ties and the innate social conservatism of older, (especially Southern) black voters, and linked to their religiosity (which also hurts Pete, as much like RW fundies, their brand of Christianity is unfortunately rooted in homophobia as one of it underpinnings ).

Here are two examples (and both these polls were not completely taken after the Hyde flip-flop-flip, so do not fully reflect the impact there, which may well bode further slippage) minus the spin of concentrating on mainly Rump v Biden numbers only.

Today's new A- rated Quinnipiac University national poll shows Biden sliding downward in support (down 8 points in last 6 weeks) from Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters.

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us06112019_trends_urox72.pdf/



That poll shows SIX (Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Harris, Booker) of our potential candidates beating Trump by at least 5 points (which is literally 2 and a half times greater a margin than Sec Clinton won the popular vote by in 2016.)

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2627


Trump also trails each of those 6 Democrats among independents by at least 15 points.





Also, in the new A+ rated Des Moines Register/CNN Iowa Poll, Biden is down 8 points from his highwater mark of 32%.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jun/09/biden-democrats-sanders-warren-buttigieg-harris-iowa-poll

Your posts are often packed with informative details.

First thing that really struck me looking at the bottom poll is how high the "actively considering" results are for Beto, Booker and even Klobuchar -- three candidates who have been struggling to get traction. If they needed a reason not to lose hope, that poll is it.

interpolated into an imprecise probability theory schema.

If that is your cuppa, do some reading on Dempster–Shafer theory (DST), ie. evidence theory. The truly cutting edge research now is being done to try and counter a potential Ludic fallacy (commonly borne out/manifested as a Black Swan event) corrupting the outcome-predictive dataset.

Yes, I am a geekette