Cable News Clips

IronLionZion

(46,656 posts) Thu Sep 5, 2024, 12:48 PM Sep 5

Allan Lichtman shares his prediction in the 2024 presidential election

Professor Lichtman studies keys rather than any polls. The keys originated from how they predict earthquakes and applied to US presidential elections. Stability vs shake things up.

8 replies

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Highlight:

Allan Lichtman shares his prediction in the 2024 presidential election (Original Post) IronLionZion Sep 5 OP

He predicts Harris will win! Dennis Donovan Sep 5 #1

He predicted Biden would win, displacedvermoter Sep 5 #2

Harris has benefits of incumbency and being a somewhat fresh face IronLionZion Sep 5 #3

He never made a prediction until today ClimateHawk Sep 5 #4

Kinda confused but Ok displacedvermoter Sep 5 #6

This video helps explain the prediction ClimateHawk Sep 5 #8

It's 50/50. Either he's right or wrong. Sneederbunk Sep 5 #5

He's been right 9/10 times Dennis Donovan Sep 5 #7

Dennis Donovan

(22,017 posts)

1. He predicts Harris will win!

Reply to IronLionZion (Original post)

Thu Sep 5, 2024, 12:57 PM

Sep 5

displacedvermoter

(2,346 posts)

2. He predicted Biden would win,

Reply to IronLionZion (Original post)

Thu Sep 5, 2024, 01:11 PM

Sep 5

did so till he dropped out!

IronLionZion

(46,656 posts)

3. Harris has benefits of incumbency and being a somewhat fresh face

Reply to displacedvermoter (Reply #2)

Thu Sep 5, 2024, 01:16 PM

Sep 5

since it's not just a rematch of 2020

ClimateHawk

(268 posts)

4. He never made a prediction until today

Reply to displacedvermoter (Reply #2)

Thu Sep 5, 2024, 01:21 PM

Sep 5

Lichtman always said “a lot would have to go wrong” for the Biden to lose. He did say Biden dropping out would cause the incumbent party to lose the incumbency key. That could have lead to a contested convention causing them to lose the contest key. They would be down 2 keys making it almost impossible to win. Thankfully, the Democrats rallied around Harris persevering the contest key.

displacedvermoter

(2,346 posts)

6. Kinda confused but Ok

Reply to ClimateHawk (Reply #4)

Thu Sep 5, 2024, 01:27 PM

Sep 5

I saw a video of him speaking in some detail a while back and he led me to believe Biden was going to win.

Glad he feels the same about Harris, or maybe the same about Trump?

ClimateHawk

(268 posts)

8. This video helps explain the prediction

Reply to displacedvermoter (Reply #6)

Thu Sep 5, 2024, 02:01 PM

Sep 5

Also, his wiki page has a chart showing the 13 keys system. Scroll down to see the 2024 election.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

Sneederbunk

(14,862 posts)

5. It's 50/50. Either he's right or wrong.

Reply to IronLionZion (Original post)

Thu Sep 5, 2024, 01:22 PM

Sep 5

Dennis Donovan

(22,017 posts)

7. He's been right 9/10 times

Reply to Sneederbunk (Reply #5)

Thu Sep 5, 2024, 01:55 PM

Sep 5

The one time he was wrong was Bush v Gore, and we all know Gore would've won had SCOTUS not jumped in and "selected" George W Bush. So he's actually 10/10 if you take that into account.

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