The campaign is downplaying the poll and saying not to read too much into it.

That's basically the approach I'm taking. Would it be great if she won Iowa? Of course. Would it be a shock? Not really -- the race had already shifted from +18 Trump before Biden withdrew to +4 Trump in September, so the trend appears to have been a thing for a while.

I think it's only surprising now because so few polls have been done in Iowa. Had there been regular polls, It might not be so surprising.

And, of course, it could prove not to be indicative of anything. We'll know soon.

to reject their Republican abortion ban.

It isn't terribly important to this election. That is to say, if Harris wins Iowa, that story will be eclipsed by the size of the landslide, when the legacy media has all been saying this is the tightest election ever.

But it is a hugely significant poll because it comes from one of the most respected pollsters, It suggests that, at worst, Harris will lose Iowa by a small margin, and Iowa would have been in play had here been enough time and money to include Iowa in the strategy.

That's the story. If we can compete in Iowa, we can compete in 48 states -- maybe not Alabama and Mississippi. It takes a great candidate who isn't afraid to reject the Beltway advice to play everything safe.