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vanessa_ca

(869 posts) Thu Mar 12, 2026, 04:26 PM 15 hrs ago

"this is probably going to go down as the most disastrous air campaign in history." Robert Pape (Breaking Points)

Trump IS TRAPPED In Iran Escalation Nightmare with Robert Pape
Robert Pape is a renowned political scientist and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military strategy and is the author of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War.

He told them in a phone interview yesterday, the war with Iran will end soon because quote, "There is practically nothing left to target. Little this and that. Anytime I want it to end, it will end." He said during the five-minute call....

This is what I call the victory narrative, but it's meeting escalation reality. And the reality is that he's one actor in the system now. But Iran is another actor who's actually driving the escalation pretty strongly. So, if he's wants to shut this war down, he's got to shut down the attacks on Iran. Well, he's already tried to break Iran. That's not working. So, what's he going to give Iran to get them to stop?"

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"this is probably going to go down as the most disastrous air campaign in history." Robert Pape (Breaking Points) (Original Post) vanessa_ca 15 hrs ago OP

Robert A. Pape: Five global risks of Iran war (from the video) teach1st 12 hrs ago #1

You're welcome. And thank you for your extra information vanessa_ca 11 hrs ago #2

teach1st

(6,016 posts)

1. Robert A. Pape: Five global risks of Iran war (from the video)

Reply to vanessa_ca (Original post)

Thu Mar 12, 2026, 07:34 PM

12 hrs ago

Thanks for posting the video!

Robert A. Pape - Five global risks of Iran war:
https://escalationtrap.substack.com/
https://escalationtrap.substack.com/p/four-strategic-patterns-now-visible

1) Energy Shock

2) Horizontal escalation
When weaker states can't win head-to-head battles, they expand the battlefield.
Shipping. Infrastructure. Partners. Civilian systems.
Instead of escalating upward, wars start spreading outward.

3) Global infrastructure vulnerability - modern economies depend on fragile networks:
Ports
Shipping Lanes
Energy facilities
Digital systems
Even limited attacks can ripple across the global economy. Corporate America may be next.

4) Military AND economic strain
Modern air wars consume enormous numbers of precision weapons.
Economies turn on "just in time" networks.
Stockpiles can fall faster than they can be replaced - especially in prolonged conflicts. This applies to oil.

5) Strategic distraction
Large wars absorb attention, logistics, and military/economic resources.
When one theater becomes consuming, other regions inevitably feel the shift.
Priorities shift
Allies Shift
Adversaries notice

vanessa_ca

(869 posts)

2. You're welcome. And thank you for your extra information

Reply to teach1st (Reply #1)

Thu Mar 12, 2026, 09:05 PM

11 hrs ago

This was the first time I ever heard of him and I was grateful for everything he explained. Thanks for the link to his substack too!

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